I’m dialling up a moneyline bet and an ATS pick for Week 5 of the college football season.
The pregame narrative: No. 9 Penn State is laying too many points for my liking against No. 19 Illinois, so I’m riding with the Fighting Illini. Elsewhere, look for Fresno State to capitalize on a tumultuous situation at UNLV.
Check out the best college football Week 5 picks for the action on Sept. 28.
College football Week 5 picks
| NCAAF Week 5 picks | Odds |
| Fresno State moneyline | +115 |
| Illinois +18.5 | -130 |
Go to full college football betting markets.
Best Bet: Fresno State moneyline (+115)
The Matthew Sluka situation changed everything about this week’s Fresno State vs. UNLV matchup.
Sluka, the starting quarterback and leading rusher at UNLV, announced Wednesday that he “will not be playing in any additional games this season” due to an issue with unpaid NIL commitments.
UNLV has an interesting backup quarterback in Hajj-Malik Williams, the career passing leader at FCS Campbell who transferred to Las Vegas for a sixth collegiate season. Williams has 88 rush yards on 10 carries this season but has yet to attempt a pass.
And although he put up big numbers with Campbell, he struggled mightily against FBS-calibre competition. In three games against FBS schools over the past three seasons, Williams’ Camels scored just 24 total points.
A midweek quarterback change is jarring, and I’m not sold on Williams holding down the fort with limited prep time.
Fresno State is a competent enough team to take advantage of this odd situation. Remember, the Bulldogs are three-time reigning bowl winners who gave Michigan a small scare in Week 1 and have three straight wins since.
Last year, Fresno State quarterback Mikey Keene threw for 256 yards and four touchdowns against UNLV.
Key stat: Fresno State has gone 6-0 against UNLV over the past six seasons, winning each of those matchups by at least a touchdown.
Quick pick
Illinois +18.5 (-130): Illinois went into Nebraska last week and beat a frisky Cornhuskers squad as a 9.5-point underdog.
Luke Altymer looks like a guy who’s made serious strides in his second year as a starting QB. He has a 10:0 TD-to-INT ratio while completing 71.5% of his passes.
Penn State was the latest team to beat up on hapless Kent State last week, and I’m not putting much stock into that 56-0 drubbing. The week before, the Nittany Lions scratched out a seven-point win as 34.5-point home favourites against Bowling Green.
Illinois is 3-0-1 ATS so far and can cover this spread without playing anywhere near its ceiling.
NCAA made at 9:40 a.m. on 09/27/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.