Jordan Horrobin

Let’s dive into three TD picks for tonight’s Monday Night Football doubleheader.

The pregame narrative: In the first game, I’m backing Gabriel Davis to score against his old team and for James Cook to build off last week’s touchdown hat trick. Later on, Ja’Marr Chase has a golden opportunity for a big performance.

Check out the best MNF Week 3 TD picks for tonight’s doubleheader.

MNF Week 3 TD picks

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Best bet: Chase anytime TD (-114)

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You may not like seeing minus odds for an underperforming Chase (I certainly don’t), but the matchup speaks for itself.

The Washington Commanders were the most welcoming opponent for receivers to face last season, and the early returns this year have been exceptional, too.

In 2023, the Commanders allowed league-highs in receiving yards (3,167) and touchdowns (29) to receivers. On a per-game basis, they’ve allowed the fourth-most yards and the most TDs so far this year.

The only problem is Chase’s slow start — paired with the fact that Tee Higgins is back and could vulture some quality looks.

Chase, who is trying to become the highest-paid receiver in the league, isn’t off to the kind of start that would earn him that distinction. Through two games, he has 10 catches for 98 yards and zero touchdowns.

More importantly, Chase only has one red zone target so far. Last year, he saw 21 red zone targets in 16 games, per Fantasy Pros.

You can spin Higgins’ return as a positive or a negative for Chase’s production, but I’m opting to look at it positively. The three-time Pro Bowler has been incessantly double-teamed, forcing quarterback Joe Burrow to look elsewhere.

With Higgins on the field, Chase will hopefully see more one-on-one matchups. If that happens, I’ll gladly put my confidence in him to outshine the Commanders’ woeful pass defence.

Key stat: Since the start of last season, Washington has allowed 1.9 touchdowns per game to opposing receivers.

Quick picks

Cook anytime TD (-113): Josh Allen is always a concern for Cook ATTD bettors, but I think there might be enough to go around tonight.

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Cook had a trio of touchdowns last week, and he scored from three distinct distances: one yard, 17 yards and 49 yards. So even if Allen reclaims the goal line plunges for himself, Cook can hit the end zone from elsewhere.

And Cook’s red zone usage so far has been solid. He has more touches inside the 20-yard line (five) than all of Buffalo’s receivers and tight ends combined (three).

Davis anytime TD (+265): I love a revenge game narrative as much as anyone, but there’s more to this TD pick than that.

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Yes, Davis is back in Western New York to face the Bills for the first time as an enemy, but that doesn’t necessarily boost his stock as a scoring threat. You know what does boost his stock, though? Last week’s involvement against a feisty Browns defence.

In Week 2, Davis saw seven targets (two in the red zone) on 94.1% route participation, according to Player Profiler. He only turned that into three grabs for 43 yards, but it’s nice to know Trevor Lawrence is already looking his way.

Evan Engram is still sidelined for the Jaguars, which removes one red zone threat from the equation. And the Bills will be without starting corner Taron Johnson, a second-team All-Pro last year.

Davis, a 2020 fourth-round draftee, already has 16 TD catches in Orchard Park, New York. What’s one more?

Picks made at 1:10 p.m. ET on 09/23/2024.

The winless Cincinnati Bengals host the Washington Commanders in the second part of a special Monday Night Football doubleheader.

The pregame narrative: It’s only Week 3, but this is a huge game for the Bengals’ playoff chances. I expect Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase to take advantage of what is arguably the best matchup they could possibly have against a weak Commanders secondary.

Check out my Commanders vs. Bengals prop picks for Monday Night Football on Sept. 23.

Commanders vs. Bengals prop picks

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Best Bet: Burrow over 269.5 passing yards (+104)

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It’s time for the Bengals’ pass offence to put up or shut up.

Cincinnati is at home and in desperate need of a win. Tee Higgins is back at practice and reportedly “planning” to make his season debut on Monday.

And look who’s coming to town? The most penetrable pass defence imaginable.

In 2023, the Commanders allowed the most pass yards and TDs in the NFL. And since the beginning of last season, they rank dead last in terms of EPA per dropback, according to RBSDM.com. To open 2024, they’ve allowed a passer rating of 100.0 or better to both Baker Mayfield and Daniel Jones.

If Burrow can’t carve up this Washington defence, we have a serious problem.

After a very unassertive effort in Week 1, Burrow looked more like himself in Kansas City’s hostile environment last weekend. He threw for 258 yards and two scores on 7.2 yards per attempt.

KC has been one of the toughest defences on opposing quarterbacks since the start of last year. And as we’ve established, Washington is the polar opposite.

If this feels like a must-win game for the Bengals, it’s also a must that Burrow turns in a strong showing through the air.

Key stat: Burrow averaged 271.3 pass yards per game from 2021-23. As for the Commanders, they allowed 10 of 17 starting QBs to go over this passing yardage total last year.

Quick pick

Chase over 79.5 receiving yards (-122): Look at what Malik Nabers did against Washington last week — in his second NFL game — and then tell me Chase shouldn’t ball out on Monday night.

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Nabers had 10 catches for 127 yards and a score for the Giants. Even when it was obvious that the ball was going his way, the Commanders couldn’t stop him.

Chase, a fellow stud wideout out of LSU, has been at this a bit longer than Nabers. He’s off to a slow start this year, but he hauled in 82.6 yards/game over his first three seasons.

You might think Higgins’ return would take a bite out of Chase’s opportunities, but I see it the opposite way. Chase has been routinely double-teamed so far and should see more single coverage now.

Daniels over 28.5 pass attempts (-121): Daniels is lightning quick and more than happy to escape pressure by tucking the ball. But I don’t think that’ll be necessary too often in this game.

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Cincinnati has the lowest blitz rate (18.3%) and the lowest QB hurry rate (1.7%) through two weeks, per Pro Football Reference.

If the Bengals connect on offence the way I think they can, the Commanders might need to deploy a more pass-heavy attack to stay in the game. And Cincinnati’s lack of pressure so far this season is an indicator that Daniels will have time to throw rather than scramble.

Picks made at 1:20 p.m. ET 09/21/2024.

The Buffalo Bills welcome the Jacksonville Jaguars to town for the first leg of a Monday Night Football doubleheader in Week 3.

The pregame narrative: After two solid wins, I like Buffalo to cover a 5-point spread at home. Jacksonville’s offence has looked questionable, but the over on Trevor Lawrence’s completions prop should be within reach.

Check out my Jaguars vs. Bills best bets for the Week 3 matchup on Sept. 23.

Jaguars vs. Bills best bets

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Best Bet: Bills -5 (-112)

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After taking a pair of losses in the Sunshine State, the Jaguars head up to Western New York to face a Bills team that is off to a very encouraging start.

There were plenty of questions about what Buffalo’s offence would look like in the absence of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, and the early returns have been great. With a harder lean on the run game, Buffalo cleared the 30-point threshold in Weeks 1 and 2.

I’m skeptical that Jacksonville can raise its offensive game to that level.

The Jaguars have scored just 30 total points through two weeks, and both of their losses have come by at least five. Trevor Lawrence hasn’t thrown an interception yet, but he’s completed just 51.0% of his passes and taken seven sacks.

Keep in mind that Buffalo’s home ATS record since the start of last year is merely 5-6. Pessimists might look at that and scoff about the team’s so-called home-field advantage.

But in those 11 games, the Bills have a +12.3 average margin of victory. So another way to frame that 5-6 home ATS record would be to say they failed to meet sky-high expectations about half the time.

A -5 spread is not a big ask. At that number, Buffalo would be 8-2-1 ATS at home since the start of last year.

The Bills do have a notable home-field advantage — as well as a three-day rest advantage — and I think that’ll help keep their early-season momentum rolling.

Key stat: Buffalo beat Miami last Thursday by 21 points. The week before that, Miami beat Jacksonville by three.

Quick pick

Lawrence over 21.5 pass completions (+105): Even though I’m fading the Jaguars, I could see Lawrence finding some positive regression in this game.

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He owns a 63.4% completion rate in his career and averaged 23.1 completions per game last year. After a couple of rough weeks, the Jags might dial up some safer pass plays to get Lawrence in a rhythm.

Considering the Bills have allowed the fifth-fewest net yards per pass attempt (4.7), a flurry of checkdowns is something they’re probably willing to concede.

And since Buffalo has posted the seventh-lowest pressure rate so far (18.3%), Lawrence should have time to make the right read.

Lawrence cashed this over in 12 of 16 games last year. That includes a 315-yard performance — on 25-of-37 passing — against the Bills.

Picks made at 3:20 p.m. ET 09/20/2024.

In desperate need of a win, the Baltimore Ravens head to Jerry World to face the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday afternoon.

The pregame narrative: I’m shying away from a side in this matchup and instead backing a teased-down over to lead off this +265 same-game parlay. The rest of the SGP features prop bets on Lamar Jackson and Jalen Tolbert.

Check out our Ravens vs. Cowboys predictions for the matchup on Sept. 22.

Ravens vs. Cowboys SGP predictions

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Parlay: Over 43.5 points + Jackson over 269.5 passing/rushing yards + Tolbert over 24.5 receiving yards (+275)

Over 43.5 points (-200): The New Orleans Saints cleared this total by themselves in Dallas last week.

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Not that I expect the Cowboys to get stomped like that very often on their home turf, but it does illustrate that their defence isn’t a finished product.

And it’s clear that both Baltimore and Dallas can put up points.

Since the start of last season, the Cowboys and Ravens rank third and sixth, respectively, in EPA per play, according to RBSDM.com. In the same timeframe, the over is 7-3 in Cowboys’ home games.

Through two weeks, the lowest point total either of these teams has seen is 47. This alt total should definitely be in play.

SGP legs

Jackson over 269.5 passing/rushing yards (-115): As anticipated, Jackson’s outsized rushing volume from the season opener (16 attempts, 122 yards) didn’t carry over to Week 2. Still, he finished with 45 yards on just five carries.

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If he can clear the 40-yard rushing milestone again, I think he’ll be well-positioned to hit the over on his passing/rushing total. After all, he’s thrown for over 240 yards in both games so far.

In 20 games since the start of last year (playoffs included), Jackson has averaged 288.2 passing/rushing yards per game.

Against a Dallas defence that yielded 432 yards last week, the reigning MVP should be able to shine again.

Tolbert over 24.5 receiving yards (-162): Tolbert is coming off a game in which he set career highs in targets (nine), catches (six) and yards (82).

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He also had a career-high 116 air yards and made an impressive contested catch on an underthrown ball:

With ball skills like that, he doesn’t need nine targets a game to cash this kind of modest yardage line. He can do it in one catch.

I do expect a target regression this Sunday as tight end Jake Ferguson appears on track to return for Dallas. But the Cowboys gave backup tight end Luke Schoonmaker six targets last week and that didn’t slow Tolbert down.

With a 77.0% route participation rate, per Player Profiler, Tolbert has carved out a role in his third year with Dallas.

Picks made at 1:00 p.m. on 09/20/24.