Jordan Horrobin

Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.

Top NFL Week 3 TD picks: Ride with Williams, Thielen to score

NFL Week 3 TD picks

I’m rolling with a trio of receivers for this week’s NFL TD picks.

The pregame narrative: In the 1 p.m. window, I like DeVonta Smith to score against the red-hot New Orleans Saints. Later on, Jameson Williams is a logical play in the highest over/under of the week … and Adam Thielen has some value if you’re bullish on the Carolina Panthers’ quarterback change.

Check out the best NFL Week 3 TD picks for the upcoming games.

NFL Week 3 TD picks

Go to full NFL betting markets.

Best bet: Smith anytime TD (+110)

Embed: #95145

Smith is accustomed to playing second to A.J. Brown when both of the Eagles’ top wideouts are on the field. But Brown (hamstring) is sidelined right now, opening up a world of opportunities for Smith.

Through two weeks, look at how active Smith has been for Philly (data via Player Profiler and Rotowire):

  • 100% routes run
  • 18 targets
  • 14 receptions
  • 160 receiving yards
  • 3 red zone targets (1 TD)

Smith has been targeted in the red zone in both weeks, and his 18 total targets blow the doors off everybody else. Brown, who is expected to be out, is second on the team with 10.

The Saints have a tough defence overall, but they’re particularly tough against the run. Since the start of last season, New Orleans has the No. 1 defence in terms of rush EPA, per RBSDM.com.

Offensively, the Saints have put up 40-plus points in back-to-back games. If the Eagles want to keep pace, they’ll likely have to air it out at some point.

And with that in mind, there’s no one I’d rather bet on to score a TD than Smith.

Key stat: Smith’s 31.0% target share ranks seventh in the NFL.

Quick picks

Williams anytime TD (+148): Jared Goff attempted 55 passes last week, which is well beyond what we should expect from him. But I could see the Lions quarterback having another (relatively) high pass volume on Sunday, and Williams should be heavily involved

Embed: #95155

Jamo is a livewire, ripping off a 40-plus-yard catch and a 13-plus-yard rush in consecutive weeks to start the season. His big-play ability is exciting enough to pique my interest, but his target volume is the trump card.

After seeing nine targets (one red zone) in Week 1, Williams had 11 targets (four RZ) in Week 2.

It’s taken longer than he or the Lions might’ve hoped, but the 2022 first-rounder finally has the trust and chemistry with Goff to ball out consistently.

Thielen anytime TD (+265): I’ll admit it. I’m probably too excited about Andy Dalton taking over for Bryce Young in Carolina.

Embed: #95156

I’ve already backed the Panthers +5.5 as one of my best bets of the week, and here I am calling my shot with an anytime TD scorer. Nobody on the Panthers has a receiving TD this year, mind you.

But things can be different with Dalton. And Thielen is a familiar face.

Last September, in Dalton’s lone start for Carolina, Thielen had 11 catches (on 14 targets) for 145 yards and a touchdown.

Is this an “old guys still got it” game? I hope so, and I’ll take a flier on Thielen at this price.

Picks made at 11:20 a.m. ET on 09/20/2024.

Blue Jays picks vs. Rays Sept. 20: Berrios, Toronto should start strong in Tampa Bay

Blue Jays picks

The Tampa Bay Rays host the Toronto Blue Jays tonight in a matchup between non-playoff teams playing out the string.

The pregame narrative: Despite the lack of playoff implications, there are still some compelling wagers to make on tonight’s game. I like the Blue Jays to win for an eighth straight time with Jose Berrios on the mound, and I’m backing Alejandro Kirk in a plus-money prop bet.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Rays on Sept. 20.

Blue Jays picks vs. Rays

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Best Bet: Blue Jays moneyline (-106)

The Blue Jays have the hotter pitcher and the hotter offence in tonight’s matchup. Not to mention a better price.

I’m trying to figure out what’s not to like, and I’m coming up short.

Let’s start with the pitching situation. Jose Berrios has been on a tear for over a month now, winning seven consecutive starts. Though I don’t put much stock in the pitcher win stat, it’s clear that Berrios is more than holding up his end of the bargain in that span:

  • 1.51 ERA
  • .188 opponent BA
  • .535 opponent OPS
  • 4% walk rate

Walks were Berrios’ problem when he last faced the Rays in July. He matched a career-high with six free passes in a 4-2 loss. Fortunately, he has only 11 walks in nine starts since.

Rays starter Tyler Alexander also isn’t a high walk rate guy, but teams haven’t struggled to knock him around recently.

Alexander has allowed a 6.59 ERA and a .567 SLG over his past six starts.

Briefly looking at these teams’ offensive outputs, Toronto holds the advantage in that regard, too.

Over the past 30 days, the Blue Jays rank fifth in wRC+ (114) and seventh in OPS (.753). In the same timeframe, the Rays rank 20th in wRC+ (89) and 24th in OPS (.660)

Frankly, I’m surprised to see the Rays favoured in this matchup. But a near-even-money price to back the Jays only heightens my interest.

Key stat: The Blue Jays have won seven straight outings with Berrios on the mound. And they’re 21-9 in Berrios’ starts this season.

Quick pick

Kirk over 0.5 RBI (+145): As mentioned in the best bet section, Alexander is doling out a lot of runs and a lot of power right now. I think Kirk has a good chance to get a piece of the action tonight.

For one thing, Kirk has already put up nice numbers in this matchup. He’s 3-for-8 with a home run and a double against Alexander.

And from the heart of the order, he’s done well to cash in several recent RBI opportunities.

Kirk has recorded an RBI in 10 of his past 20 starts, logging 15 RBI in total in that time.

Picks made at 9:55 a.m. on 09/20/24.

Blue Jays picks vs. Rays Sept. 20: Berrios, Toronto should start strong in Tampa Bay

Blue Jays picks

The Tampa Bay Rays host the Toronto Blue Jays tonight in a matchup between non-playoff teams playing out the string.

The pregame narrative: Despite the lack of playoff implications, there are still some compelling wagers to make on tonight’s game. I like the Blue Jays to win for an eighth straight time with Jose Berrios on the mound, and I’m backing Alejandro Kirk and Yandy Diaz in two plus-money prop bets.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Rays on Sept. 20.

Blue Jays picks vs. Rays

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Best Bet: Blue Jays moneyline (-103)

Embed: #95112

The Blue Jays have the hotter pitcher and the hotter offence in tonight’s matchup. Not to mention a better price.

I’m trying to figure out what’s not to like, and I’m coming up short.

Let’s start with the pitching situation. Jose Berrios has been on a tear for over a month now, winning seven consecutive starts. Though I don’t put much stock in the pitcher win stat, it’s clear that Berrios is more than holding up his end of the bargain in that span:

  • 1.51 ERA
  • .188 opponent BA
  • .535 opponent OPS
  • 4% walk rate

Walks were Berrios’ problem when he last faced the Rays in July. He matched a career-high with six free passes in a 4-2 loss. Fortunately, he has only 11 walks in nine starts since.

Rays starter Tyler Alexander also isn’t a high walk rate guy, but teams haven’t struggled to knock him around recently.

Alexander has allowed a 6.59 ERA and a .567 SLG over his past six starts.

Briefly looking at these teams’ offensive outputs, Toronto holds the advantage in that regard, too.

Over the past 30 days, the Blue Jays rank fifth in wRC+ (114) and seventh in OPS (.753). In the same timeframe, the Rays rank 20th in wRC+ (89) and 24th in OPS (.660)

Frankly, I’m surprised to see the Rays favoured in this matchup. But a near-even-money price to back the Jays only heightens my interest.

Key stat: The Blue Jays have won seven straight outings with Berrios on the mound. And they’re 21-9 in Berrios’ starts this season.

Quick picks

Parlay: Berrios 18+ outs, Diaz 1+ hits (+106): I’d love to bet on Berrios over 17.5 outs as a straight wager, and you’re welcome to do that if you don’t mind how juiced-up it is.

Embed: #95114

After all, Berrios has been absolute money at this number. He’s logged six-plus innings (i.e., over 17.5 outs) in eight of his past nine starts — and 22 of 30 on the year.

He did hit the under when he last faced the Rays (4.2 IP on July 23), but that was the six-walk game. With a more typical command of the ball, he should clear this total once again.

To make it a plus-money play, I’ve tacked on a hit from the best bat on the other side

Embed: #95116

Diaz, who often bats leadoff for the Rays, is 36-for-108 (.333) since Aug. 13. In that timeframe, he’s recorded a hit in 23 of 28 starts.

He’s also had solid success against Berrios, going 5-for-15 with a home run and a double.

Kirk over 0.5 RBI (+155): As mentioned in the best bet section, Alexander is doling out a lot of runs and a lot of power right now. I think Kirk has a good chance to get a piece of the action tonight.

Embed: #95117

For one thing, Kirk has already put up nice numbers in this matchup. He’s 3-for-8 with a home run and a double against Alexander.

And from the heart of the order, he’s done well to cash in several recent RBI opportunities.

Kirk has recorded an RBI in 10 of his past 20 starts, logging 15 RBI in total in that time.

Picks made at 9:15 a.m. on 09/20/24.

College football Week 4 picks and predictions: NCAAF best bets on USC, Miami

College football Week 4 picks

For Week 4 of the college football season, I’m tailing a pair of ranked favourites against the spread.

The pregame narrative: No. 11 USC visits No. 18 Michigan this week and the Trojans are rightful road favourites. Meanwhile, No. 8 Miami (FL) should roll against South Florida.

Check out the best college football Week 4 picks for the action on Sept. 21.

College football Week 4 picks

NCAAF Week 4 picksOdds
USC -5.5-118
Miami -16.5-130

Go to full college football betting markets.

Best Bet: USC -5.5 (-118)

USC makes the long trip east for its first-ever conference game on midwestern soil. And it arrives to face a Michigan team in flux.

The Wolverines are making a change at quarterback, benching preferred walk-on Davis Warren (a pocket passer) for junior Alex Orji (a run-happy gadget guy). In three seasons with the maize and blue, Orji has completed just four passes while rushing 31 times.

Don’t get me wrong, Orji is an explosive runner. But his lack of passing chops raises a question of whether or not he’ll be able to keep the Trojans from stacking the box.

Two weeks ago, USC played a Utah State team that averaged 6.0 yards per rush. But the Trojans stifled the Aggies, holding them to just 87 yards on 23 carries.

Between Orji, Donovan Edwards and Kalel Mullings, the Wolverines have three capable ball-carriers. But that might not matter if USC knows what’s coming.

And let’s not forget that USC has a rising star at quarterback in Miller Moss. He’s up to 607 yards on a 72.7% completion rate through two games for the Trojans.

Coming off a bye week, I don’t think the lengthy travel means anything for USC’s chances. I’ll take the side that has a balanced offensive attack and a ranked win under its belt.

Key stat: USC is 2-0 ATS and won both games by seven-plus points. Michigan is 0-3 ATS, and all three games were at home.

Quick pick

Miami -16.5 (-130): If Miami jumps out to an early lead, I just can’t see South Florida sticking around.

The Bulls deploy one of the most prominent run-first offences in Division I, averaging 47.7 carries per game (sixth in FBS). Nearly two-thirds of their total offence comes on the ground.

But the Hurricanes have a stingy run defence, allowing just 2.7 yards per carry. And Miami’s offence, well, it speaks for itself.

Led by Heisman frontrunner Cam Ward, the Hurricanes have scored 40-plus points in all three games. Ward leads the country in passing yards, passing TDs, yards/attempt and QB rating.

All three of Miami’s wins have come by 24 points or more. The schedule will get harder, but for now, this is another matchup with serious blowout potential.

NCAA made at 4:30 p.m. on 09/19/2024.

College football Week 4 picks and predictions: NCAAF best bets on USC, Miami and Utah’s Cam Rising

College football Week 4 picks

For Week 4 of the college football season, I’m tailing a pair of ranked favourites and taking the over on a Cam Rising prop bet.

The pregame narrative: No. 11 USC visits No. 18 Michigan this week and the Trojans are rightful road favourites. Rising is back under centre for No. 12 Utah and has a very attainable rushing prop, while No. 8 Miami (FL) should roll against South Florida.

Check out the best college football Week 4 picks for the action on Sept. 21.

College football Week 4 picks

Click linked odds to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

NCAAF Week 4 picksOddsBet now ⬇️
USC -5.5-113Add to betslip
Rising over 22.5 rush yards-115Add to betslip
Miami -16.5-114Add to betslip

Go to full college football betting markets.

Best Bet: USC -5.5 (-113)

USC makes the long trip east for its first-ever conference game on midwestern soil. And it arrives to face a Michigan team in flux.

The Wolverines are making a change at quarterback, benching preferred walk-on Davis Warren (a pocket passer) for junior Alex Orji (a run-happy gadget guy). In three seasons with the maize and blue, Orji has completed just four passes while rushing 31 times.

Don’t get me wrong, Orji is an explosive runner. But his lack of passing chops raises a question of whether or not he’ll be able to keep the Trojans from stacking the box.

Two weeks ago, USC played a Utah State team that averaged 6.0 yards per rush. But the Trojans stifled the Aggies, holding them to just 87 yards on 23 carries.

Between Orji, Donovan Edwards and Kalel Mullings, the Wolverines have three capable ball-carriers. But that might not matter if USC knows what’s coming.

And let’s not forget that USC has a rising star at quarterback in Miller Moss. He’s up to 607 yards on a 72.7% completion rate through two games for the Trojans.

Coming off a bye week, I don’t think the lengthy travel means anything for USC’s chances. I’ll take the side that has a balanced offensive attack and a ranked win under its belt.

Key stat: USC is 2-0 ATS and won both games by seven-plus points. Michigan is 0-3 ATS, and all three games were at home.

Quick picks

Rising over 22.5 rushing yards (-115): I want to take the over on Rising’s passing yards (231.5). I really do. But he’s coming off a finger injury on his throwing hand, so I’m staying away this week.

But Oklahoma State has allowed 305.3 pass yards per game through three weeks, so I still expect Rising to take plenty of dropbacks. He’s a very capable scrambler, which means this line is one I know he can clear.

In one-and-a-half games this season (he exited with the finger injury in the second quarter of Week 2), Rising has 46 rush yards on just six carries.

He had 25 rush yards in the opener and 21 in his abbreviated second game.

In his two-plus seasons as a starter, Rising has rushed for 36.1 yards/game and cleared this line in 17 of 28 starts.

Miami -16.5 (-114): If Miami jumps out to an early lead, I just can’t see South Florida sticking around.

The Bulls deploy one of the most prominent run-first offences in Division I, averaging 47.7 carries per game (sixth in FBS). Nearly two-thirds of their total offence comes on the ground.

But the Hurricanes have a stingy run defence, allowing just 2.7 yards per carry. And Miami’s offence, well, it speaks for itself.

Led by Heisman frontrunner Cam Ward, the Hurricanes have scored 40-plus points in all three games. Ward leads the country in passing yards, passing TDs, yards/attempt and QB rating.

All three of Miami’s wins have come by 24 points or more. The schedule will get harder, but for now, this is another matchup with serious blowout potential.

NCAA made at 3:30 p.m. on 09/19/2024.

MLB best bets Sept. 19: Bet on Kikuchi, Astros to cover as run line favourites

MLB best bets

An over, an under and a run line pick comprise today’s MLB best bets.

The pregame narrative: The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets have two of the league’s most potent offences, and I think they’re in a good spot to put up a lot of runs tonight. Later on, Yusei Kikuchi and the Houston Astros look to earn another comfortable win over the Los Angeles Angels.

Check out these MLB best bets for Sept. 19.

MLB best bets

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Best bet: Phillies/Mets over 8 runs (-120)

The Mets put up back-to-back 10-spots to close out their home series against the Nationals, and tonight’s matchup should be a recipe for runs, too.

Phillies starter Taijuan Walker (3-6, 6.29 ERA) would have the highest ERA in the majors if he’d pitched enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. Since the start of August, opponents have a .355/.408/.646 slash line against him in seven outings (four starts).

The Mets have four runs on six hits against Walker across 9.0 innings this year, so he hasn’t been stung too badly. But New York’s lineup has a .490 xSLG against Walker (130 plate appearances), per Baseball Savant, so it’s possible they’re due for more damage.

With that in mind, I could take the over on the Mets’ team total. But I want in on the Phillies’ offence, too.

Philadelphia’s lineup is 11-for-42 (.262) with a .452 SLG against Mets starter Luis Severino. These high-scoring teams have pushed each other in the past and should light up the scoreboard tonight.

Seven of nine matchups between the Phillies and Mets this year have cleared this total.

Key stat: The Phillies (4.82 runs/game) and Mets (4.80) rank fifth and sixth in scoring.

Quick picks

Yankees/Mariners under 7.5 runs (-134): The New York Yankees crawled to a 2-1 win in extra innings last night and then popped champagne to celebrate clinching a postseason berth.

In typical hangover game fashion, I assume some of New York’s stars will get to watch today’s afternoon game from the bench. But please, monitor the Yankees’ lineup announcements closer to game time.

One guy who won’t get the day off is starting pitcher Clarke Schmidt (5-3, 2.41 ERA), who has allowed no more than three runs in any of his 13 starts this year. He has a 1.29 ERA over his past six outings.

Seattle Mariners starter Logan Gilbert (7-11, 3.24) is no slouch, either. And 19 of his 30 starts have finished under 7.5 runs.

Astros -1.5 (-138): A lot of pundits criticized the Astros for a presumed overpay in their acquisition of Kikuchi, but that deal has worked out awfully well for Houston so far.

Houston is 8-0 in Kikuchi’s starts, outscoring opponents by 2.4 runs per game. The Astros have covered a -1.5 run line in each of his past four outings — including a Sept. 13 matchup against the Los Angeles Angels.

Tonight, Kikuchi will rematch the Angels, who own a .684 OPS against left-handers (21st in MLB).

L.A. counters on the mound with Jose Suarez, who has pitched seven scoreless innings since returning from a minor league demotion … but he still has a 6.80 ERA in 42.1 frames this year.

The Astros just swept the Angels with a trio of run-line victories from Sept. 13-15.

Picks made at 10:58 a.m. ET on 09/19/2024.

Patriots vs. Jets Week 3 same-game parlay predictions: Look for Polk, Stevenson to lead the charge on Thursday Night Football

Patriots vs. Jets predictions

Instead of backing a side or a total, I’m sticking three player props together for tonight’s Thursday Night Football same-game parlay.

The pregame narrative: Rhamondre Stevenson is a high-usage machine whose receiving work hasn’t been totally activated yet. I’m taking the over on Stevenson’s scrimmage yards total while banking on some modest production from Ja’Lynn Polk and Braelon Allen.

Check out my Patriots vs. Jets same-game parlay predictions for Week 3 below.

Patriots vs. Jets same-game parlay predictions

Parlay: Stevenson over 79.5 rush/rec. yards + Polk over 1.5 receptions + Allen over 19.5 rushing yards (+380)

Stevenson over 79.5 rushing/receiving yards (-150): True bell cow running backs are rare in the modern NFL, and I wouldn’t describe Stevenson as one. But he is still the clear-cut RB1 in New England

Embed: #95051

Stevenson has gone over 20 carries in both weeks, averaging 4.4 yards per tote. He’s played 100 of a possible 133 snaps and seen three-plus targets in both games, too.

He’s cashed this bet in both games so far, compiling 90 scrimmage yards last week after 126 yards in the season opener.

Stevenson’s high volume in the ground game keeps his production floor fairly high, but what piques my interest is the opportunity for greater efficiency as a receiver.

Through his first three seasons, Stevenson has averaged 5.0 yards per target. This year, he only has 15 yards on eight targets (1.9 YPT). If we see some positive regression on that front, he’ll be even more dangerous.

Other parlay picks

Polk over 1.5 receptions (-167): I like to pay attention to snap counts for rookie receivers. In Polk’s case, the early returns are good.

Embed: #95052

The second-round pick was second among Patriots receivers in snap share last week (60%). That’s a slight uptick from his 54% snap share in Week 1.

New England doesn’t have an alpha in its WR room, but Polk doesn’t need to be that guy to cash this bet.

What he needs to do is create trust with quarterback Jacoby Brissett, as he did last week by hauling in a TD catch in the red zone. He finished with two catches for 12 yards on three targets.

Other than that, Polk just needs to get open. According to Fantasy Points Data, he’s doing that better than any other rookie wideout so far.

In a game where the Patriots could be chasing, two catches from their rising rookie isn’t a big ask.

Allen over 19.5 rushing yards (-150): My guy Avery Perri was already on Allen’s rushing yards in his TNF prop article, so I’m just following suit.

Embed: #95053

Allen made the most of limited opportunities last week, turning nine touches into 56 scrimmage yards and two scores (including the winner) against the Titans. Breece Hall is a bulldog, but Allen has earned additional looks by averaging 5.1 yards per carry so far.

And though Hall practiced all week, he landed on the injury report with a quad injury. On a short week, wouldn’t it make sense to ease Hall’s burden a bit by turning to an electric rookie?

Whether the Jets are running out the clock late in this game, or simply looking to give Hall a breather at various points, I think Allen will get enough work to clear this total.

Picks made at 10:45 a.m. on 09/19/24.

MLB best bets Sept. 19: Bet on Kikuchi, Astros to cover as run line favourites

MLB best bets

An over, an under and a run line pick comprise today’s MLB best bets.

The pregame narrative: The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets have two of the league’s most potent offences, and I think they’re in a good spot to put up a lot of runs tonight. Later on, Yusei Kikuchi and the Houston Astros look to earn another comfortable win over the Los Angeles Angels.

Check out these MLB best bets for Sept. 19.

MLB best bets

MLB Markets: Click Here | MLB Stats: Click Here

Best bet: Phillies/Mets over 8.5 runs (-104)

Embed: #95033

The Mets put up back-to-back 10-spots to close out their home series against the Nationals, and tonight’s matchup should be a recipe for runs, too.

Phillies starter Taijuan Walker (3-6, 6.29 ERA) would have the highest ERA in the majors if he’d pitched enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. Since the start of August, opponents have a .355/.408/.646 slash line against him in seven outings (four starts).

The Mets have four runs on six hits against Walker across 9.0 innings this year, so he hasn’t been stung too badly. But New York’s lineup has a .490 xSLG against Walker (130 plate appearances), per Baseball Savant, so it’s possible they’re due for more damage.

With that in mind, I could take the over on the Mets’ team total. But I want in on the Phillies’ offence, too.

Philadelphia’s lineup is 11-for-42 (.262) with a .452 SLG against Mets starter Luis Severino. These high-scoring teams have pushed each other in the past and should light up the scoreboard tonight.

Seven of nine matchups between the Phillies and Mets this year have cleared this total.

Key stat: The Phillies (4.82 runs/game) and Mets (4.80) rank fifth and sixth in scoring.

Quick picks

Yankees/Mariners under 7.5 runs (-129): The New York Yankees crawled to a 2-1 win in extra innings last night and then popped champagne to celebrate clinching a postseason berth.

Embed: #95029

In typical hangover game fashion, I assume some of New York’s stars will get to watch today’s afternoon game from the bench. But please, monitor the Yankees’ lineup announcements closer to game time.

One guy who won’t get the day off is starting pitcher Clarke Schmidt (5-3, 2.41 ERA), who has allowed no more than three runs in any of his 13 starts this year. He has a 1.29 ERA over his past six outings.

Seattle Mariners starter Logan Gilbert (7-11, 3.24) is no slouch, either. And 19 of his 30 starts have finished under 7.5 runs.

Astros -1.5 (-125): A lot of pundits criticized the Astros for a presumed overpay in their acquisition of Kikuchi, but that deal has worked out awfully well for Houston so far.

Embed: #95030

Houston is 8-0 in Kikuchi’s starts, outscoring opponents by 2.4 runs per game. The Astros have covered a -1.5 run line in each of his past four outings — including a Sept. 13 matchup against the Los Angeles Angels.

Tonight, Kikuchi will rematch the Angels, who own a .684 OPS against left-handers (21st in MLB).

L.A. counters on the mound with Jose Suarez, who has pitched seven scoreless innings since returning from a minor league demotion … but he still has a 6.80 ERA in 42.1 frames this year.

The Astros just swept the Angels with a trio of run-line victories from Sept. 13-15.

Picks made at 9:58 a.m. ET on 09/19/2024.

NFL Week 3 best bets: With Andy Dalton starting, back the Panthers ATS

NFL Week 3 best bets

Believe it or not, I’m backing Andy Dalton and (indirectly) fading C.J. Stroud this week.

The pregame narrative: The Houston Texans face a revved-up Minnesota Vikings defence and I’m taking the under on the visitors’ point total. I’m also backing the Green Bay Packers and Carolina Panthers against the spread as road underdogs.

Check out these NFL Week 3 best bets.

NFL Week 3 best bets

Go to full NFL Week 3 betting markets.

Best Bet: Texans under 23.5 points (-125)

Houston’s offence was humming to open Sunday Night Football last week. Stroud and the crew scored on four of their five possessions in the first half.

The second half was a different story, though. The Texans amassed just 89 yards and three points over eight drives.

There’s a lot of name-brand talent in Houston, especially after Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon joined this year. But the team isn’t a lock to put up a mid-20s point total. On the road against the Vikings, this is a nice spot to fade Houston.

Minnesota has only allowed 23 total points through its first two games. Last week, the Vikes put the clamps on Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers, nabbing a pick and forcing three fumbles (one recovered).

Stroud’s home/road splits are worth paying attention to as well:

  • Home (nine games): 305.1 pass yards/game, 106.7 passer rating
  • Road (eight games): 232.0 pass yards/game, 94.6 passer rating

There are five newcomers in Minnesota’s starting defence. So far, that group has posted the fourth-best EPA (expected points added) per play among all defences, per RBSDM.com.

Under Stroud, the Texans’ offence has been notably less potent on the road. I think that trend will continue on Sunday.

Key stat: Houston has gone under 23.5 points in seven of Stroud’s 10 career road games. They averaged 19.5 PPG in those matchups.

Quick picks

Packers +3.5 (-163): I like Green Bay as an upset pick this week, so you know I have to take the Packers with some points, too.

Everyone at Lambeau Field knew Green Bay would rely heavily on its run game last week, but it didn’t matter that the cards were on the table. The Packers rumbled over the Colts for a victory as three-point dogs thanks to a stout defence and 261 yards on the ground.

Let’s not overlook Malik Willis, either, as the plug-in QB2 completed 12-of-14 passes for 122 yards and a score.

Now Willis faces his old team — the one that opted to recoup a seventh-round pick last month rather than rostering him — and it’s difficult to feel good about the winless Titans.

Tennessee is 2-9 against a -3 spread in Levis’ 11 career starts. The team’s defence will be much more difficult to run against than Indy was, but its offence is as mistake-prone as the come.

Levis and Co. committed five turnovers through the first two weeks. I expect Green Bay (entering with a league-high six takeaways) to build on that total.

Panthers +5.5 (-110): Ladies and gents, it’s Andy Dalton time.

That might not seem like a thing to celebrate, but compared to another four quarters of Bryce Young, it really is. Through two games, Young has averaged 4.4 yards per attempt and posted a 0:3 TD-to-INT ratio. Carolina has looked lifeless with him.

Enter Dalton, who threw for 361 yards and two TDs in his lone start last season and has 163 career starts on his ledger. He’s no superstar, but he’s a big step in the right direction in terms of QB competence.

The Las Vegas Raiders inexplicably knocked off the Baltimore Ravens last week, but this is still number they haven’t made a habit of clearing. Since the start of last year, Las Vegas has failed to cover a -5.5 spread in 14 of 19 games.

Carolina was a 7-point underdog at open and the line has come down a bit since the announcement that Dalton would start. According to Action Network’s Evan Abrams, underdogs of 6-plus points are 8-0 ATS this year.

NFL picks made at 3:20 p.m. on 09/18/24.

NFL Week 3 best bets: With Andy Dalton starting, back the Panthers ATS

NFL Week 3 best bets

Believe it or not, I’m backing Andy Dalton and (indirectly) fading C.J. Stroud this week.

The pregame narrative: The Houston Texans face a revved-up Minnesota Vikings defence and I’m taking the under on the visitors’ point total. I’m also backing the Green Bay Packers and Carolina Panthers against the spread as road underdogs.

Check out these NFL Week 3 best bets.

NFL Week 3 best bets

Go to full NFL Week 3 betting markets.

Best Bet: Texans under 23.5 points (+100)

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Houston’s offence was humming to open Sunday Night Football last week. Stroud and the crew scored on four of their five possessions in the first half.

The second half was a different story, though. The Texans amassed just 89 yards and three points over eight drives.

There’s a lot of name-brand talent in Houston, especially after Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon joined this year, but the team isn’t a lock to put up a mid-20s point total. On the road against the Vikings, this is a nice spot to fade Houston.

Minnesota has only allowed 23 total points through its first two games. Last week, the Vikes put the clamps on Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers, nabbing a pick and forcing three fumbles (one recovered).

Stroud’s home/road splits are worth paying attention to as well:

  • Home (nine games): 305.1 pass yards/game, 106.7 passer rating
  • Road (eight games): 232.0 pass yards/game, 94.6 passer rating

There are five newcomers in Minnesota’s starting defence. So far, that group has posted the fourth-best EPA (expected points added) per play among all defences, per RBSDM.com.

Under Stroud, the Texans’ offence has been notably less potent on the road. I think that trend will continue on Sunday.

Key stat: Houston has gone under 23.5 points in seven of Stroud’s 10 career road games. They averaged 19.5 PPG in those matchups.

Quick picks

Packers +3 (-115): I like Green Bay as an upset pick this week, so you know I have to take the Packers with some points, too.

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Everyone at Lambeau Field knew Green Bay would rely heavily on its run game last week, but it didn’t matter that the cards were on the table. The Packers rumbled over the Colts for a victory as three-point dogs thanks to a stout defence and 261 yards on the ground.

Let’s not overlook Malik Willis, either, as the plug-in QB2 completed 12-of-14 passes for 122 yards and a score.

Now Willis faces his old team — the one that opted to recoup a seventh-round pick last month rather than rostering him — and it’s difficult to feel good about the winless Titans.

Tennessee is 2-9 against a -3 spread in Levis’ 11 career starts. The team’s defence will be much more difficult to run against than Indy was, but its offence is as mistake-prone as the come.

Levis and Co. committed five turnovers through the first two weeks. I expect Green Bay (entering with a league-high six takeaways) to build on that total.

Panthers +5.5 (-122): Ladies and gents, it’s Andy Dalton time.

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That might not seem like a thing to celebrate, but compared to another four quarters of Bryce Young, it really is. Through two games, Young has averaged 4.4 yards per attempt and posted a 0:3 TD-to-INT ratio. Carolina has looked lifeless with him.

Enter Dalton, who threw for 361 yards and two TDs in his lone start last season and has 163 career starts on his ledger. He’s no superstar, but he’s a big step in the right direction in terms of QB competence.

The Las Vegas Raiders inexplicably knocked off the Baltimore Ravens last week, but this is still number they haven’t made a habit of clearing. Since the start of last year, Las Vegas has failed to cover a -5.5 spread in 14 of 19 games.

Carolina was a 7-point underdog at open and the line has come down a bit since the announcement that Dalton would start. According to Action Network’s Evan Abrams, underdogs of 6-plus points are 8-0 ATS this year.

NFL picks made at 2:20 p.m. on 09/18/24.