For Week 4 of the college football season, I’m tailing a pair of ranked favourites and taking the over on a Cam Rising prop bet.
The pregame narrative: No. 11 USC visits No. 18 Michigan this week and the Trojans are rightful road favourites. Rising is back under centre for No. 12 Utah and has a very attainable rushing prop, while No. 8 Miami (FL) should roll against South Florida.
Check out the best college football Week 4 picks for the action on Sept. 21.
College football Week 4 picks
Click linked odds to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.
| NCAAF Week 4 picks | Odds | Bet now ⬇️ |
| USC -5.5 | -113 | Add to betslip |
| Rising over 22.5 rush yards | -115 | Add to betslip |
| Miami -16.5 | -114 | Add to betslip |
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Best Bet: USC -5.5 (-113)
USC makes the long trip east for its first-ever conference game on midwestern soil. And it arrives to face a Michigan team in flux.
The Wolverines are making a change at quarterback, benching preferred walk-on Davis Warren (a pocket passer) for junior Alex Orji (a run-happy gadget guy). In three seasons with the maize and blue, Orji has completed just four passes while rushing 31 times.
Don’t get me wrong, Orji is an explosive runner. But his lack of passing chops raises a question of whether or not he’ll be able to keep the Trojans from stacking the box.
Two weeks ago, USC played a Utah State team that averaged 6.0 yards per rush. But the Trojans stifled the Aggies, holding them to just 87 yards on 23 carries.
Between Orji, Donovan Edwards and Kalel Mullings, the Wolverines have three capable ball-carriers. But that might not matter if USC knows what’s coming.
And let’s not forget that USC has a rising star at quarterback in Miller Moss. He’s up to 607 yards on a 72.7% completion rate through two games for the Trojans.
Coming off a bye week, I don’t think the lengthy travel means anything for USC’s chances. I’ll take the side that has a balanced offensive attack and a ranked win under its belt.
Key stat: USC is 2-0 ATS and won both games by seven-plus points. Michigan is 0-3 ATS, and all three games were at home.
Quick picks
Rising over 22.5 rushing yards (-115): I want to take the over on Rising’s passing yards (231.5). I really do. But he’s coming off a finger injury on his throwing hand, so I’m staying away this week.
But Oklahoma State has allowed 305.3 pass yards per game through three weeks, so I still expect Rising to take plenty of dropbacks. He’s a very capable scrambler, which means this line is one I know he can clear.
In one-and-a-half games this season (he exited with the finger injury in the second quarter of Week 2), Rising has 46 rush yards on just six carries.
He had 25 rush yards in the opener and 21 in his abbreviated second game.
In his two-plus seasons as a starter, Rising has rushed for 36.1 yards/game and cleared this line in 17 of 28 starts.
Miami -16.5 (-114): If Miami jumps out to an early lead, I just can’t see South Florida sticking around.
The Bulls deploy one of the most prominent run-first offences in Division I, averaging 47.7 carries per game (sixth in FBS). Nearly two-thirds of their total offence comes on the ground.
But the Hurricanes have a stingy run defence, allowing just 2.7 yards per carry. And Miami’s offence, well, it speaks for itself.
Led by Heisman frontrunner Cam Ward, the Hurricanes have scored 40-plus points in all three games. Ward leads the country in passing yards, passing TDs, yards/attempt and QB rating.
All three of Miami’s wins have come by 24 points or more. The schedule will get harder, but for now, this is another matchup with serious blowout potential.
NCAA made at 3:30 p.m. on 09/19/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.