Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

Blue Jays picks vs. Rangers Sept. 18: Bowden Francis gives Toronto value on F5 moneyline

Bowden Francis is back on the mound for the Toronto Blue Jays tonight as the team looks to even its series against the Texas Rangers.

The pregame narrative: Through four Toronto/Texas matchups this year, the home team is 4-0 … and they’ve all featured double-digit run totals. I’m bucking those trends a bit tonight by backing the road team on the first-five-inning market, along with the F5 under.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Rangers on Sept. 18.

Blue Jays picks vs. Rangers

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Best Bet: Blue Jays draw no bet – first five innings (-106)

My favourite Blue Jays bet at this point in the season? An F5 wager with Francis on the mound.

The right-hander’s resurgence started as soon as he was given a full-time role in the rotation on Aug. 7. From that point forward, he has some dizzyingly good numbers:

1.50 ERA
.101 opponent BA
.375 opponent OPS
27% K rate
3% BB rate

Toronto is 6-1-0 on the F5 moneyline in those outings, and it’s pretty easy to see why. Francis is consistently giving his side a chance to win.

Backing the Blue Jays to win outright on the F5 moneyline carries a more compelling price (+125), but obviously with a bit more risk.

Toronto is just 66-65-18 on the F5 moneyline this season, per ATS.io, which means it has only won outright in 44.3% of its games.

I like the plus-money upside of this pick, but I also like that it’ll grade as a push rather than a loss if the Jays can’t provide Francis with ample run support.

And in fairness, Rangers starter Cody Bradford (5-3, 3.97 ERA) has been excellent at home this season. He has a 2.57 ERA at Globe Life Field and the Rangers are 6-1-1 on the F5 moneyline in his eight home starts.

Key stat: Toronto has outscored its opponents, 14-6, in the first five innings over Francis’ past seven starts.

Quick picks

Under 4 runs – first five innings (+100): I’m not sure how else to spell out Francis’ recent dominance, so just know that I expect him to shove again tonight. But he’s not the only pitcher who should keep scoring down.

Bradford, as mentioned, has been great at Globe Life. Opponents have just a .174 BA and a .315 SLG against him in Arlington. Those values are both nearly doubled on the road.

It’s also worth noting that Bradford is a lefty. Toronto has just an 88 wRC+ against lefties this year, which ranks 24th in MLB.

The F5 under is 4-1 in Francis’ past five starts — and only 10 total F5 runs have been scored in that span.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. over 1.5 bases (+105): I’ve hyped up the pitching on both sides of this matchup, but let’s save room to praise Vladdy a bit, too.

Last night, he went 3-for-5 with a double and two runs in a high-scoring series opener. Even though Bradford has fared well at home, I have a tough time staying away from plus-money odds on Guerrero to clear his bases prop against a lefty.

Guerrero has a .565 SLG against lefties this year (10th in MLB), as well as a .991 OPS (eighth). He can crush against anyone, but he’s at his best in lefty-on-righty matchups.

In his past 45 games, Guerrero has gone over 1.5 bases 26 times (57.8%). He’s also 14-for-40 (.350) lifetime at Globe Life Field.

Picks made at 12:20 p.m. on 09/18/24.

Yankees vs. Mariners prop picks Sept. 18: Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres should crush in Seattle

The New York Yankees exploded for 11 runs in last night’s series opener against the Seattle Mariners. I’m calling for more offence from the Bronx Bombers tonight.

The pregame narrative: Aaron Judge owns Seattle and has two very compelling props that I’m jumping on. I also like Gleyber Torres to score and Mitch Garver to record a hit.

Check out my Yankees vs. Mariners prop picks for Sept. 18.

Yankees vs. Mariners prop picks

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Best Bet: Judge over 1.5 bases (+115)

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Seattle is the poorest offensive environment in the majors, according to Baseball Savant’s park factors. But that doesn’t seem to matter to Judge.

In 20 career games at Seattle’ T-Mobile Park, Judge has a .315/.441/.808 slash line and 16 extra-base hits. Most hitters would be happy to have an .808 OPS in Seattle … but that’s just Judge’s SLG when he’s batting on the banks of Puget Sound.

It’s difficult to contextualize how lethal Judge has been at the plate this year, but here’s one attempt. Look at some of the categories where Judge leads the way:

HR (53)
OPS (1.149)
Total bases (367)
Barrel rate (26.3%)
Average exit velocity (96.0 mph)

Judge also leads the majors with a .692 SLG, but Baseball Savant grades his xSLG (.731) even higher. So you could argue he should be producing at an even greater clip than he already is.

Last night, in a tough matchup against Seattle’s Bryan Woo, Judge cashed this bet in the first inning with a two-run double. Now he’ll face Bryce Miller, who hasn’t had any fun facing Judge so far.

Judge is 3-for-6 with two homers and a double against Miller.

Key stat: Judge is averaging 2.46 bases per game this season and has gone over 1.5 bases in 78 of 149 games (52.3%).

Quick picks

Judge over 0.5 RBI (+145): This is on the lower end as far as RBI prices are concerned, but it’s still very playable for Judge.

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All three of his hits against Miller went for extra bases, as mentioned, and both hitters ahead of him in the lineup have excelled against Seattle’s starter, too.

Torres and Juan Soto are collectively 4-for-8 with two extra-base hits against Miller.

Judge, who had four RBI last night, has cashed this prop in 20 of 41 games since the start of August. He also now has 24 RBI in 20 career games in Seattle.

Torres over 0.5 runs (+117): If Judge has a big night at the plate, Torres could be one of the beneficiaries.

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Let’s be fair to Miller for a second. He has a 1.55 ERA and a .168 opponent BA over his past seven starts. But Torres is on fire and should get himself in position to score.

Over his past 14 games, Torres is batting .373 with 14 runs scored. He’s cashed this bet 10 times. From New York’s leadoff spot, he’s a bargain at plus money.

Garver over 0.5 hits (-120): Garver hasn’t been worth betting on very often this year, but I like his spot tonight with a platoon advantage.

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The catcher is a career .263 hitter against lefties, and his OPS against southpaws this year (.792) far outweighs his OPS against righties (.537).

Yankees lefty Nestor Cortes is having a solid season, but he’s been hittable in recent weeks. Over his past 10 starts, opponents have a .265 BA and a .796 OPS.

Picks made at 11:50 a.m. ET 09/18/2024.

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Blue Jays picks vs. Rangers Sept. 18: Bowden Francis gives Toronto value on F5 moneyline

Bowden Francis is back on the mound for the Toronto Blue Jays tonight as the team looks to even its series against the Texas Rangers.

The pregame narrative: Through four Toronto/Texas matchups this year, the home team is 4-0 … and they’ve all featured double-digit run totals. I’m bucking those trends a bit tonight by backing the road team on the first-five-inning market, along with the F5 under.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Rangers on Sept. 18.

Blue Jays picks vs. Rangers

MLB markets: Click Here | MLB stats: Click Here

Best Bet: Blue Jays draw no bet – first five innings (+108)

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My favourite Blue Jays bet at this point in the season? An F5 wager with Francis on the mound.

The right-hander’s resurgence started as soon as he was given a full-time role in the rotation on Aug. 7. From that point forward, he has some dizzyingly good numbers:

1.50 ERA
.101 opponent BA
.375 opponent OPS
27% K rate
3% BB rate

Toronto is 6-1-0 on the F5 moneyline in those outings, and it’s pretty easy to see why. Francis is consistently giving his side a chance to win.

Backing the Blue Jays to win outright on the F5 moneyline carries a more compelling price (+140), but obviously with a bit more risk.

Toronto is just 66-65-18 on the F5 moneyline this season, per ATS.io, which means it has only won outright in 44.3% of its games.

I like the plus-money upside of this pick, but I also like that it’ll grade as a push rather than a loss if the Jays can’t provide Francis with ample run support.

And in fairness, Rangers starter Cody Bradford (5-3, 3.97 ERA) has been excellent at home this season. He has a 2.57 ERA at Globe Life Field and the Rangers are 6-1-1 on the F5 moneyline in his eight home starts.

Key stat: Toronto has outscored its opponents, 14-6, in the first five innings over Francis’ past seven starts.

Quick picks

Under 4.5 runs – first five innings (-137): I’m not sure how else to spell out Francis’ recent dominance, so just know that I expect him to shove again tonight. But he’s not the only pitcher who should keep scoring down.

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Bradford, as mentioned, has been great at Globe Life. Opponents have just a .174 BA and a .315 SLG against him in Arlington. Those values are both nearly doubled on the road.

It’s also worth noting that Bradford is a lefty. Toronto has just an 88 wRC+ against lefties this year, which ranks 24th in MLB.

The F5 under is 4-1 in Francis’ past five starts — and only 10 total F5 runs have been scored in that span.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. over 1.5 bases (+108): I’ve hyped up the pitching on both sides of this matchup, but let’s save room to praise Vladdy a bit, too.

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Last night, he went 3-for-5 with a double and two runs in a high-scoring series opener. Even though Bradford has fared well at home, I have a tough time staying away from plus-money odds on Guerrero to clear his bases prop against a lefty.

Guerrero has a .565 SLG against lefties this year (10th in MLB), as well as a .991 OPS (eighth). He can crush against anyone, but he’s at his best in lefty-on-righty matchups.

In his past 45 games, Guerrero has gone over 1.5 bases 26 times (57.8%). He’s also 14-for-40 (.350) lifetime at Globe Life Field.

Picks made at 9:20 a.m. on 09/18/24.

NFL Week 3 underdog picks and predictions: Ride with surging Cardinals at home vs. Lions

For the second consecutive week, our NFL underdog picks went 1-1. With plus-money odds, that means we’re still ahead of the curve.

The pregame narrative: The Green Bay Packers were my successful pick last Sunday, and I’m going back to them as my top underdog this week against the Tennessee Titans. In the late-afternoon window, I like the Arizona Cardinals to build on last week’s success by defeating the Detroit Lions.

Check out how these NFL Week 3 underdog picks.

NFL Week 3 underdog picks

Go to full NFL Week 3 betting markets.

Best bet: Packers moneyline (+130)

Welcome, one and all, to the Malik Willis revenge game.

I say that (mostly) in jest, given that Willis was shipped from Tennessee to Titletown for a 2025 seventh-rounder in late August. He was then thrust into action after the Packers’ starting quarterback, Jordan Love, went down with a knee injury in Week 1.

Willis wasn’t asked to do much in his first start for the Packers, but he excelled when needed. The 2022 third-round pick completed 12-of-14 passes for 122 yards and a touchdown while adding 41 rush yards on six attempts.

Green Bay was a 3-point home underdog against the Indianapolis Colts but came away with a 16-10 victory.

Facing the winless Titans, why can’t the Packers pull off another upset?

Tennessee’s run defence is certainly more stout than Indy’s, but the Titans are an accident waiting to happen. They’ve turned the ball over five times already (three INTs, two fumbles), which is tied for the most in the league.

Green Bay has the most takeaways in the league (five INTs, one fumble recovery) and the second-best turnover differential (+4).

Here’s the other thing: Love could be back for this game. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported that Love is targeting a Week 5 return … but ESPN’s Rob Demovsky said Love was “very close to playing” in Week 2.

https://twitter.com/cheeseheadtv/status/1835769173462679952

The possibility of Love’s return makes Green Bay an even more compelling pick. But at this point, at least the Packers have proven they can win with Willis at the helm.

Key stat: Green Bay is 13-11 straight up as an underdog since 2021, per Team Rankings.

Week 3 upset predictions

Cardinals moneyline (+130): I bet against the Cardinals last week, who I felt were surprise favourites at home against the Los Angeles Rams.

I was even more surprised to watch the Cardinals post a 41-10 victory behind Kyler Murray’s perfect passer rating. Murray threw for 266 yards and three scores on just 21 passes while scampering for 59 yards on the ground.

Detroit only beat the Rams by six in Week 1 and followed that up with a loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers — as 7.5-point favourites.

Arizona’s one-score road loss in Buffalo is looking better by the day. And if Murray can continue flashing chemistry with Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride, this could be a very dangerous team.

Picks made at 2:00 p.m. ET on 09/17/2024.

Blue Jays picks vs. Rangers Sept. 17: Alejandro Kirk has value on his RBI prop

The Toronto Blue Jays are down south to begin a series against Nathan Eovaldi and the Texas Rangers.

The pregame narrative: A few Jays have hit Eovaldi particularly well, and I’m expecting more of the same tonight. I like the over on the game total along with prop bets on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Alejandro Kirk.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Rangers on Sept. 17.

Blue Jays picks vs. Rangers

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Best Bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. over 0.5 runs (+120)

Guerrero’s hitting has slowed down considerably in recent games, but he’s still one of the most dangerous players at the plate. And he commands plenty of respect from his opponents.

The all-star first baseman has drawn seven walks in his past seven games — four of which were intentional. So although he’s only batting .167 in that span, his .355 on-base percentage is nothing to worry about.

Part of the reason I wanted to back Vladdy tonight is that he has strong numbers against Eovaldi in 21 previous plate appearances:

7-for-20 (.350)
.550 SLG
Two extra-base hits
9.5% K rate

But this mini-slump of Vladdy’s at the plate, paired with the risk that Eovaldi and the Rangers will pitch around him, made me opt for a runs prop rather than a bases prop.

Vladdy has scored in seven of his past 12 games, and he has 22 total runs over his past 29 games. He’s not in the optimal run-scoring spot as the Jays’ No. 3 hitter, but I think he can find his way on base somehow.

With that in mind, this price really jumps out to me as a value play.

Key stat: Since the start of August, Guerrero has scored in 20 of 38 games while posting a .429 OBP.

Quick pick

Kirk over 0.5 RBI (+190): If Guerrero gets on base, Kirk is one of the prime candidates to drive him home.

Kirk, who routinely bats in the Nos. 4-6 spots in the Blue Jays lineup, has an RBI in nine of his past 18 starts. He’s also hit safely in each of his past 10 starts.

In a small sample, Kirk has excellent numbers against Eovaldi, too. The catcher is 5-for-8 with a double, two walks and zero strikeouts.

Over 7.5 runs (-112): Given that I’m backing two Blue Jays on the prop market, you might think I’d prefer simply taking the over on Toronto’s team total (over 3.5 runs at -115).

That seems like a reasonable bet as well, but I think the over on the game total provides some welcomed flexibility with Toronto’s Chris Bassitt projected to start.

Eleven of Bassitt’s past 14 outings have cleared this total and he has a 4.92 ERA in that span. So if Toronto’s bats are a little slow, perhaps the Rangers’ bats can pick up the slack.

As for Eovaldi, 12 of his past 17 starts have cleared 7.5 runs — and he has a 4.15 ERA in that span. Most Jays hitters will be seeing him for the first time tonight, but Guerrero and Kirk can hopefully drive offence for the visiting side.

Picks made at 1:20 p.m. on 09/17/24.

NFL Week 3 underdog picks and predictions: Ride with surging Cardinals at home vs. Lions

For the second consecutive week, our NFL underdog picks went 1-1. With plus-money odds, that means we’re still ahead of the curve.

The pregame narrative: The Green Bay Packers were my successful pick last Sunday, and I’m going back to them as my top underdog this week against the Tennessee Titans. In the late-afternoon window, I like the Arizona Cardinals to build on last week’s success by defeating the Detroit Lions.

Check out how these NFL Week 3 underdog picks.

NFL Week 3 underdog picks

Go to full NFL Week 3 betting markets.

Best bet: Packers moneyline (+130)

Embed: #94884

Welcome, one and all, to the Malik Willis revenge game.

I say that (mostly) in jest, given that Willis was shipped from Tennessee to Titletown for a 2025 seventh-rounder in late August. He was then thrust into action after the Packers’ starting quarterback, Jordan Love, went down with a knee injury in Week 1.

Willis wasn’t asked to do much in his first start for the Packers, but he excelled when needed. The 2022 third-round pick completed 12-of-14 passes for 122 yards and a touchdown while adding 41 rush yards on six attempts.

Green Bay was a 3-point home underdog against the Indianapolis Colts but came away with a 16-10 victory.

Facing the winless Titans, why can’t the Packers pull off another upset?

Tennessee’s run defence is certainly more stout than Indy’s, but the Titans are an accident waiting to happen. They’ve turned the ball over five times already (three INTs, two fumbles), which is tied for the most in the league.

Green Bay has the most takeaways in the league (five INTs, one fumble recovery) and the second-best turnover differential (+4).

Here’s the other thing: Love could be back for this game. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported that Love is targeting a Week 5 return … but ESPN’s Rob Demovsky said Love was “very close to playing” in Week 2.

https://twitter.com/cheeseheadtv/status/1835769173462679952

The possibility of Love’s return makes Green Bay an even more compelling pick. But at this point, at least the Packers have proven they can win with Willis at the helm.

Key stat: Green Bay is 13-11 straight up as an underdog since 2021, per Team Rankings.

Week 3 upset predictions

Cardinals moneyline (+128): I bet against the Cardinals last week, who I felt were surprise favourites at home against the Los Angeles Rams.

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I was even more surprised to watch the Cardinals post a 41-10 victory behind Kyler Murray’s perfect passer rating. Murray threw for 266 yards and three scores on just 21 passes while scampering for 59 yards on the ground.

Detroit only beat the Rams by six in Week 1 and followed that up with a loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers — as 7.5-point favourites.

Arizona’s one-score road loss in Buffalo is looking better by the day. And if Murray can continue flashing chemistry with Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride, this could be a very dangerous team.

Picks made at 12:30 p.m. ET on 09/17/2024.

Blue Jays picks vs. Rangers Sept. 17: Alejandro Kirk has value on his RBI prop

The Toronto Blue Jays are down in the Lone Star State to begin a series against Nathan Eovaldi and the Texas Rangers.

The pregame narrative: A few Jays have hit Eovaldi particularly well, and I’m expecting more of the same tonight. I like the over on the game total along with prop bets on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Alejandro Kirk.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Rangers on Sept. 17.

Blue Jays picks vs. Rangers

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Best Bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. over 0.5 runs (+125)

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Guerrero’s hitting has slowed down considerably in recent games, but he’s still one of the most dangerous players at the plate. And he commands plenty of respect from his opponents.

The all-star first baseman has drawn seven walks in his past seven games — four of which were intentional. So although he’s only batting .167 in that span, his .355 on-base percentage is nothing to worry about.

Part of the reason I wanted to back Vladdy tonight is that he has strong numbers against Eovaldi in 21 previous plate appearances:

7-for-20 (.350)
.550 SLG
Two extra-base hits
9.5% K rate

But this mini-slump of Vladdy’s at the plate, paired with the risk that Eovaldi and the Rangers will pitch around him, made me opt for a runs prop rather than a bases prop.

Vladdy has scored in seven of his past 12 games, and he has 22 total runs over his past 29 games. He’s not in the optimal run-scoring spot as the Jays’ No. 3 hitter, but I think he can find his way on base somehow.

With that in mind, this price really jumps out to me as a value play.

Key stat: Since the start of August, Guerrero has scored in 20 of 38 games while posting a .429 OBP.

Quick pick

Kirk over 0.5 RBI (+205): If Guerrero gets on base, Kirk is one of the prime candidates to drive him home.

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Kirk, who routinely bats in the Nos. 4-6 spots in the Blue Jays lineup, has an RBI in nine of his past 18 starts. He’s also hit safely in each of his past 10 starts.

In a small sample, Kirk has excellent numbers against Eovaldi, too. The catcher is 5-for-8 with a double, two walks and zero strikeouts.

Over 7.5 runs (-117): Given that I’m backing two Blue Jays on the prop market, you might think I’d prefer simply taking the over on Toronto’s team total (over 3.5 runs at -115).

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That seems like a reasonable bet as well, but I think the over on the game total provides some welcomed flexibility with Toronto’s Chris Bassitt projected to start.

Eleven of Bassitt’s past 14 outings have cleared this total and he has a 4.92 ERA in that span. So if Toronto’s bats are a little slow, perhaps the Rangers’ bats can pick up the slack.

As for Eovaldi, 12 of his past 17 starts have cleared 7.5 runs — and he has a 4.15 ERA in that span. Most Jays hitters will be seeing him for the first time tonight, but Guerrero and Kirk can hopefully drive offence for the visiting side.

Picks made at 10:20 a.m. on 09/17/24.

Sept. 17 MLB odds, schedule and matchups: Tigers continue to claw back in wild-card race

We’ve officially reached the final two weeks of MLB’s regular season, which means there are some key matchups unfolding with major playoff implications.

The latest: The Detroit Tigers have clawed their way into the postseason race, and tonight they have a chance to gain further ground on the Kansas City Royals. Elsewhere, Bryan Woo and the Seattle Mariners host the New York Yankees.

Check out the latest MLB odds for Tuesday, Sept. 17.

MLB odds: Sept. 17

MLB Markets: Click Here | MLB Stats: Click Here

San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore Orioles

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Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians

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Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds

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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins

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Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays

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Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets

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Oakland Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs

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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers

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Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals

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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals

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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Texas Rangers

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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies

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Chicago White Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels

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Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres

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New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners

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Betting insights

The Orioles, who haven’t won a series against an above-.500 team since July 2-4, might have a tough time getting off to a good start in their opener tonight against the Giants. Blake Snell, who’s on the mound for San Fran, has a 1.45 ERA over his past 12 outings.

The Dodgers have hit the over at the fourth-highest rate in the majors this year (81-65-4, 55.5%), and the Marlins are close behind in sixth (79-65-6, 54.9%). They have the second-highest projected run total tonight (9.5).

Detroit is still just fourth in the AL Central, but it’s knocking on the door of a playoff spot after going 7-2 in its past nine games. The Tigers, who are 1.5 games outside the postseason picture, turn to Casey Mize tonight. Mize has been hit hard by the Royals (.439 BA, .652 SLG in 69 plate appearances).

The highest over/under of the night is in the Diamondbacks vs. Rockies matchup (11.5 runs). Colorado starter Ryan Feltner has hit this under in 13 of his past 15 starts — including five of seven at home — while pitching to a 3.83 ERA in that span.

Both the Mariners and Yankees are 7-3 in their past 10 games, and they’re 2-2 against each other on the season. Also, both starting pitchers (Woo, Luis Gil) have allowed sub-.150 batting averages to their respective opposing lineups.

Dodgers vs. Braves Sunday Night Baseball picks: Olson, Betts should make noise

A suspect pitching matchup on Sunday Night Baseball has me bullish for offence.

The pregame narrative: Charlie Morton and the Atlanta Braves host Walker Buehler and the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight. I’m taking the over on the first-five-inning total while playing prop bets for Matt Olson and Mookie Betts.

Check out my Dodgers vs. Braves picks for Sunday Night Baseball on Sept. 15.

Dodgers vs. Braves picks

MLB markets: Click Here | MLB stats: Click Here

Best Bet: Betts over 0.5 runs (-118)

Psychologically, it’s never fun to see a run prop with minus odds. But I can absolutely get behind this one today.

Betts bats in the No. 2 spot of an exceptionally potent Dodgers lineup, which means he’s always in a great position to score. L.A. has the second-best team OPS in the majors (.767), and the lineup has been even better over the past month (.783 OPS).

So as long as Betts finds a way on base, his chances of getting around the diamond to score are going to be pretty good.

Betts has seen Morton a team-high 51 times, and the results have definitely been in the outfielder’s favour. He is 13-for-42 with a home run, two doubles and seven walks. That equates to a .431 on-base percentage.

What makes this even more enticing is the guy batting right after Betts: Freddie Freeman. In his past experiences against Morton, Freeman is 11-for-23 (.478) with four doubles and three home runs.

The Dodgers have scored 14 runs on 24 hits over their past 20.1 innings against Morton (dating back to 2022). I think they can get to Morton again tonight, and Betts should be a piece of that.

Key stat: Betts has scored a run in 11 of his past 19 games.

Quick picks

Olson over 0.5 RBI (+140): Olson is just 1-for-4 with a walk against Buehler, so this pick isn’t about their history. Instead, it’s a bet on Olson’s resurgence overall.

In his past 20 games, the reigning HR champ has a .321/.372/.615 slash line and 22 RBI. He’s cashed this bet 12 times.

Last year, Olson paced the NL with a .604 SLG … but that’s down to .442 this year. So it’s nice to see him powering up again.

Buehler doesn’t strike me as someone who’s going to cool Olson down. L.A.’s starter has allowed a .308/.369/.555 slash line to all opposing hitters this year over 13 outings.

That means Atlanta should be able to get runners on base, and its cleanup hitter should be able to bring them home.

Over 4.5 runs – first five innings (-118): At this price, I’m really liking the F5 over in a game with two questionable pitchers on the mound.

The Dodgers have extensive experience against Morton (226 plate appearances, .254 BA), so there should be no surprises on their end. L.A. is the third-highest scoring team in baseball (4.95 runs/game) and consistently scores in the early innings.

The F5 over is 82-66 in Dodgers games this year, according to ATS.io, which is the third-highest rate in MLB.

Atlanta’s offence hasn’t been nearly as explosive this year, but I think the Braves can contribute to this total thanks to the presence of Buehler on the mound.

Buehler has a 7.62 ERA over his past six starts, and the F5 over has cashed in five of those.

The Braves’ current lineup is 16-for-65 (.246) against Buehler with five extra-base hits and four walks.

Picks made at 4:15 p.m. ET 09/15/2024.

Falcons vs. Eagles Week 2 prop picks: Look for Kirk Cousins to bounce back on Monday Night Football

A battle of birds closes out NFL Week 2, as the Philadelphia Eagles host the Atlanta Falcons on Monday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: A key injury on the Eagles’ side makes me particularly bullish about a certain Saquon Barkley prop. I’m also looking for a bounce-back effort from Kirk Cousins.

Check out my Falcons vs. Eagles prop picks for Monday Night Football Sept. 16.

Falcons vs. Eagles prop picks

Full Monday Night Football betting markets: Click Here

Best Bet: Barkley over 19.5 receiving yards (+114)

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Jalen Hurts has never supported a prominent pass-catching running back in his NFL tenure, but he’s also never worked with a guy like Barkley.

With Hurts at the helm in Philadelphia, the Eagles have yet to see a tailback log even 260 receiving yards in a season.

Barkley, meanwhile, has cleared that total in each of his five full seasons.

In his Eagles debut last week, Barkley only saw two targets from Hurts. But he did as much as he could with that small volume, catching both passes for 23 yards and a score.

Based on that performance and his pass-catching pedigree, Barkley has earned more opportunities in the receiving game.

Keep in mind that A.J. Brown (hamstring) is out, too. That should free up some targets for Barkley and co.

Key stat: Barkley has averaged 20.2 receiving yards per game since the beginning of last year (15 games).

Quick pick

Cousins over 229.5 passing yards (-105): This is a tough one to feel good about after Cousins laid an egg in his Falcons debut in Week 1. But the matchup is awfully compelling.

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The Eagles allowed the second-most passing yards per game last year (252.7). Cousins was one of the guys who did the most damage against them, throwing for 364 yards on 31-of-44 passing.

That was pre-Achilles injury, mind you… and Cousins was employed by the Vikings back then, not the Falcons.

So there are a few variables here that muddy the waters a bit. But at its core, this bet is about fading a questionable Eagles secondary with a quarterback who has historically cleared this number with ease.

Cousins averaged 240-plus passing yards per game in each of his previous nine seasons.

Picks made at 1:25 p.m. ET 09/15/2024.