For the second consecutive week, our NFL underdog picks went 1-1. With plus-money odds, that means we’re still ahead of the curve.
The pregame narrative: The Green Bay Packers were my successful pick last Sunday, and I’m going back to them as my top underdog this week against the Tennessee Titans. In the late-afternoon window, I like the Arizona Cardinals to build on last week’s success by defeating the Detroit Lions.
Check out how these NFL Week 3 underdog picks.
NFL Week 3 underdog picks
Go to full NFL Week 3 betting markets.
Best bet: Packers moneyline (+130)
Welcome, one and all, to the Malik Willis revenge game.
I say that (mostly) in jest, given that Willis was shipped from Tennessee to Titletown for a 2025 seventh-rounder in late August. He was then thrust into action after the Packers’ starting quarterback, Jordan Love, went down with a knee injury in Week 1.
Willis wasn’t asked to do much in his first start for the Packers, but he excelled when needed. The 2022 third-round pick completed 12-of-14 passes for 122 yards and a touchdown while adding 41 rush yards on six attempts.
Green Bay was a 3-point home underdog against the Indianapolis Colts but came away with a 16-10 victory.
Facing the winless Titans, why can’t the Packers pull off another upset?
Tennessee’s run defence is certainly more stout than Indy’s, but the Titans are an accident waiting to happen. They’ve turned the ball over five times already (three INTs, two fumbles), which is tied for the most in the league.
Green Bay has the most takeaways in the league (five INTs, one fumble recovery) and the second-best turnover differential (+4).
Here’s the other thing: Love could be back for this game. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported that Love is targeting a Week 5 return … but ESPN’s Rob Demovsky said Love was “very close to playing” in Week 2.
Key stat: Green Bay is 13-11 straight up as an underdog since 2021, per Team Rankings.
Week 3 upset predictions
Cardinals moneyline (+128): I bet against the Cardinals last week, who I felt were surprise favourites at home against the Los Angeles Rams.
I was even more surprised to watch the Cardinals post a 41-10 victory behind Kyler Murray’s perfect passer rating. Murray threw for 266 yards and three scores on just 21 passes while scampering for 59 yards on the ground.
Detroit only beat the Rams by six in Week 1 and followed that up with a loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers — as 7.5-point favourites.
Arizona’s one-score road loss in Buffalo is looking better by the day. And if Murray can continue flashing chemistry with Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride, this could be a very dangerous team.
Picks made at 12:30 p.m. ET on 09/17/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.