The Toronto Blue Jays are down south to begin a series against Nathan Eovaldi and the Texas Rangers.
The pregame narrative: A few Jays have hit Eovaldi particularly well, and I’m expecting more of the same tonight. I like the over on the game total along with prop bets on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Alejandro Kirk.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Rangers on Sept. 17.
Blue Jays picks vs. Rangers
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Best Bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. over 0.5 runs (+120)
Guerrero’s hitting has slowed down considerably in recent games, but he’s still one of the most dangerous players at the plate. And he commands plenty of respect from his opponents.
The all-star first baseman has drawn seven walks in his past seven games — four of which were intentional. So although he’s only batting .167 in that span, his .355 on-base percentage is nothing to worry about.
Part of the reason I wanted to back Vladdy tonight is that he has strong numbers against Eovaldi in 21 previous plate appearances:
- 7-for-20 (.350)
- .550 SLG
- Two extra-base hits
- 9.5% K rate
But this mini-slump of Vladdy’s at the plate, paired with the risk that Eovaldi and the Rangers will pitch around him, made me opt for a runs prop rather than a bases prop.
Vladdy has scored in seven of his past 12 games, and he has 22 total runs over his past 29 games. He’s not in the optimal run-scoring spot as the Jays’ No. 3 hitter, but I think he can find his way on base somehow.
With that in mind, this price really jumps out to me as a value play.
Key stat: Since the start of August, Guerrero has scored in 20 of 38 games while posting a .429 OBP.
Quick pick
Kirk over 0.5 RBI (+190): If Guerrero gets on base, Kirk is one of the prime candidates to drive him home.
Kirk, who routinely bats in the Nos. 4-6 spots in the Blue Jays lineup, has an RBI in nine of his past 18 starts. He’s also hit safely in each of his past 10 starts.
In a small sample, Kirk has excellent numbers against Eovaldi, too. The catcher is 5-for-8 with a double, two walks and zero strikeouts.
Over 7.5 runs (-112): Given that I’m backing two Blue Jays on the prop market, you might think I’d prefer simply taking the over on Toronto’s team total (over 3.5 runs at -115).
That seems like a reasonable bet as well, but I think the over on the game total provides some welcomed flexibility with Toronto’s Chris Bassitt projected to start.
Eleven of Bassitt’s past 14 outings have cleared this total and he has a 4.92 ERA in that span. So if Toronto’s bats are a little slow, perhaps the Rangers’ bats can pick up the slack.
As for Eovaldi, 12 of his past 17 starts have cleared 7.5 runs — and he has a 4.15 ERA in that span. Most Jays hitters will be seeing him for the first time tonight, but Guerrero and Kirk can hopefully drive offence for the visiting side.
Picks made at 1:20 p.m. on 09/17/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.