Jordan Horrobin

A suspect pitching matchup on Sunday Night Baseball has me bullish for offence.

The pregame narrative: Charlie Morton and the Atlanta Braves host Walker Buehler and the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight. I’m taking the over on the first-five-inning total while playing prop bets for Matt Olson and Mookie Betts.

Check out my Dodgers vs. Braves picks for Sunday Night Baseball on Sept. 15.

Dodgers vs. Braves picks

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Best Bet: Betts over 0.5 runs (-114)

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Psychologically, it’s never fun to see a run prop with minus odds. But I can absolutely get behind this one today.

Betts bats in the No. 2 spot of an exceptionally potent Dodgers lineup, which means he’s always in a great position to score. L.A. has the second-best team OPS in the majors (.767), and the lineup has been even better over the past month (.783 OPS).

So as long as Betts finds a way on base, his chances of getting around the diamond to score are going to be pretty good.

Betts has seen Morton a team-high 51 times, and the results have definitely been in the outfielder’s favour. He is 13-for-42 with a home run, two doubles and seven walks. That equates to a .431 on-base percentage.

What makes this even more enticing is the guy batting right after Betts: Freddie Freeman. In his past experiences against Morton, Freeman is 11-for-23 (.478) with four doubles and three home runs.

The Dodgers have scored 14 runs on 24 hits over their past 20.1 innings against Morton (dating back to 2022). I think they can get to Morton again tonight, and Betts should be a piece of that.

Key stat: Betts has scored a run in 11 of his past 19 games.

Quick picks

Olson over 0.5 RBI (+165): Olson is just 1-for-4 with a walk against Buehler, so this pick isn’t about their history. Instead, it’s a bet on Olson’s resurgence overall.

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In his past 20 games, the reigning HR champ has a .321/.372/.615 slash line and 22 RBI. He’s cashed this bet 12 times.

Last year, Olson paced the NL with a .604 SLG … but that’s down to .442 this year. So it’s nice to see him powering up again.

Buehler doesn’t strike me as someone who’s going to cool Olson down. L.A.’s starter has allowed a .308/.369/.555 slash line to all opposing hitters this year over 13 outings.

That means Atlanta should be able to get runners on base, and its cleanup hitter should be able to bring them home.

Over 4.5 runs – first five innings (+104): At plus money, I’m really liking this over in a game with two questionable pitchers on the mound.

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The Dodgers have extensive experience against Morton (226 plate appearances, .254 BA), so there should be no surprises on their end. L.A. is the third-highest scoring team in baseball (4.95 runs/game) and consistently scores in the early innings.

The F5 over is 82-66 in Dodgers games this year, according to ATS.io, which is the third-highest rate in MLB.

Atlanta’s offence hasn’t been nearly as explosive this year, but I think the Braves can contribute to this total thanks to the presence of Buehler on the mound.

Buehler has a 7.62 ERA over his past six starts, and the F5 over has cashed in five of those.

The Braves’ current lineup is 16-for-65 (.246) against Buehler with five extra-base hits and four walks.

Picks made at 11:15 a.m. ET 09/15/2024.

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Bryce Harper headlines today’s MLB prop bets, and there are two additional plays in the 4 p.m. window.

The pregame narrative: Harper faces a familiar pitcher today and should be able to do some serious damage. Later on, I’m fading Randy Arozarena and Cal Raleigh in a plus-money parlay while also tailing Zac Gallen’s strikeout prop.

Check out these MLB prop bets for Sept. 15.

MLB prop bets

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Best bet: Harper over 1.5 bases (+130)

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Backing a hitter in a lefty-on-lefty matchup is typically not the move, but this one isn’t as daunting as you might think.

From the pitching side of things, Mets starter David Peterson has yielded only marginally better power results to righty hitters (.364 SLG) than to lefties (.343 SLG).

As for Harper, his OPS against lefties (.927) is actually better this year than his OPS against righties (.906). And both are stellar, obviously, which is why he was named to his eighth all-star team this summer.

Harper has already seen — and crushed — Peterson in the past, too.

The two-time MVP is 7-for-15 (.467) with a home run, a double and two walks against Peterson.

In fairness to Peterson, he’s done well to limit damage in recent outings. Since the start of August, he has a 2.39 ERA and a .315 opponent SLG. But if anyone is going to power up against him, I like my chances with Harper.

Coming off a two-homer game last night, look for Harper to stay hot in a familiar matchup.

Key stat: Harper has gone over 1.5 bases in 13 of his past 21 games, posting a .385/.455/.626 slash line in that span.

Quick picks

Parlay: Arozarena, Raleigh under 1.5 bases each (+128): I view this as a solid price to fade two players who’ve really struggled against Rangers left-hander Andrew Heaney.

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Let’s start with Arozarena, whose main risk is that he tends to hit lefties better than righties. On the bright side (for us), the former Ray hasn’t been hitting anyone well lately.

Arozarena has gone under 1.5 bases in 21 of his past 29 games, batting .209 in that span. He is 1-for-7 with three strikeouts against Heaney.

Raleigh, meanwhile, is hitless in 11 at-bats against Heaney.

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The catcher known by some as “Big Dumper” is also hitless in seven of his past 16 games. And although he’s a switch-hitter by trade, Raleigh’s numbers from the left side are well below league average (.156 BA, .633 OPS).

Gallen over 6.5 Ks (-106): The Milwaukee Brewers aren’t a particularly strikeout-heavy team, but this isn’t a particularly arduous strikeout line for Gallen.

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The talented right-hander has gotten into a groove lately, riding a 16.1-inning scoreless streak into today’s outing. He also has gone over 6.5 Ks in four consecutive starts.

Milwaukee has the 13th-highest K rate against righties this year (23.4%). And the current lineup has struck out against Gallen at an even higher rate — 26.1% over 46 plate appearances, per Baseball Savant.

Picks made at 9:55 a.m. ET on 09/15/2024.

After Thursday’s off-day, the Toronto Blue Jays continue their homestand with a three-game series against the St. Louis Cardinals.

The pregame narrative: Tonight’s pitching matchup isn’t scaring me off of taking the over on a modest game total. In the player prop market, I like Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s plus-money price to score a run.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Cardinals on Sept. 13.

Blue Jays picks vs. Cardinals

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Best Bet: Over 8 runs (-104)

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One thing that really jumped out to me about tonight’s matchup are the home/road splits for Cardinals starter Erick Fedde since he joined his new club.

Fedde, who was shipped to St. Louis in a three-team trade at the end of July, has done a lot better within the pitcher-friendly confines of Busch Stadium than elsewhere:

These are small enough samples that Fedde could have some luck working for or against him, but it’s still a stark difference.

One way to approach that trend would be to take the over on the Blue Jays’ 3.5-run team total (-141), but that’s juiced up enough that I’d rather take a stab at the game total instead. Plus, I think either of tonight’s starting pitchers is capable of coughing up at least a handful of runs.

Kevin Gausman wasn’t officially announced as Toronto’s starter at the time of this writing, but he is next in line to pitch (make sure to monitor any news on that front ahead of game time). Here’s how both teams’ respective lineups have performed against Fedde and Gausman:

• TOR vs. Fedde: 6-for-25 (.240), .480 SLG, 9.7% K rate
• STL vs. Gausman: 16-for-51 (.314), .490 SLG, 14.3% K rate

Again, fairly modest samples we’re working with. But the K rates tell a story that neither pitcher has baffled these lineups in the past.

The over is 41-29-2 (58.6%) in Toronto’s home games this year, which is the sixth-highest home overs rate in baseball, per Team Rankings. Knowing that, I’ll ride with the over again tonight.

Key stat: Kevin Gausman has a 4.09 ERA over his past 14 starts, and this over is 9-4-1 in those outings.

Quick pick

Guerrero over 0.5 runs (+110): Vladdy’s run prop is priced better than his bases prop. And I think it’s a better bet, too.

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Fedde has issued multiple walks in 10 of his past 11 starts and has a 3.7 BB/9 in that span. Over a full season, that would be the second-highest among qualified MLB pitchers.

Vladdy is an ultra-dangerous slugger who also has a strong sense of the strike zone and rarely goes down swinging. He’s exactly the type of guy Fedde should be looking to pitch around.

In fact, we’ve seen that already. Guerrero is 2-for-7 with three walks against Fedde.

With that in mind, I’m not as bullish to bet the over on 1.5 bases for Guerrero. But I do expect him to find a way on base, after which he’ll have a solid chance to score.

Guerrero has scored in 29 of his past 49 games (59.2%) and has posted a .463 on-base percentage in that span.

Picks made at 2:30 p.m. on 09/13/24.

The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees open a four-game set tonight at Yankee Stadium.

The pregame narrative: I’m fading Juan Soto tonight as the riskiest of my three plus-money prop bets in this matchup. On Boston’s side of things, I like Jarren Duran and Rob Refsnyder to do some damage.

Check out my Red Sox vs. Yankees prop picks for Sept. 12.

Red Sox vs. Yankees prop picks

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Best Bet: Duran over 0.5 runs (+115)

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Why is Duran, who has 102 runs this season, getting such a juicy price to score for Boston from the leadoff spot tonight?

Well, he’s a lefty hitter who struggles against lefty pitching. And southpaw Nestor Cortes is typically at his best in left-on-left matchups.

But this price is good enough to catch my interest. And upon taking a closer look, I think there’s some real value.

Duran has scored in 76 of 144 games this year (52.8%), and he really turned up the heat in June to land his first all-star bid.

From June 1 onward, Duran has scored in 50 of 86 games (58.1%) with a .310/.362/.560 slash line. He’s also an above-average hitter against LHPs in that span, posting a .283 BA and a 107 wRC+.

All of a sudden, that platoon disadvantage doesn’t look so bleak, does it?

If Cortes was cruising in the run-up to this start, I might be a bit hesitant. But he’s been all over the map.

In his past 10 outings, Cortes has a 5.16 ERA and an .803 opponent OPS. He’s had three shutout performances in that span, but also four games with five-plus runs allowed.

Boston’s lineup has hit Cortes well, so if Duran can find a way on base, there should be someone capable of driving him home.

Key stat: The Red Sox are 25-for-79 (.316) with a .595 SLG against Cortes.

Quick picks

Refsnyder over 1.5 bases (+155): Refsnyder isn’t an everyday player, but he should absolutely be in the lineup tonight — and he should crush.

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The journeyman outfielder is a menace against lefty pitching, especially over the past few years. Since 2022, he owns a .317/.412/.502 slash line and a 153 wRC+ against LHPs.

And it just so happens that Refsnyder has been a menace in this particular matchup. He’s 8-for-16 with three doubles against Nestor Cortes.

When he’s in the lineup, Refsnyder usually bats No. 3 for Boston. He should have plenty of chances to clear this total tonight.

Soto under 0.5 hits (+180): Soto is one of the best hitters in the game, but he’s arguably even better at drawing a walk.

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Soto’s 18.0% walk rate is second behind only Aaron Judge in the majors. He’s led the majors in walks in three consecutive seasons and is only two off Judge’s league-best pace this year.

It’s never going to be a comfortable feeling betting on Soto to go hitless. But he’s done so in 12 of his past 24 games and is batting just .200 in that span.

With a particularly keen eye, Soto could easily find his way on once or twice without even lifting the bat off his shoulder.

Picks made at 1:20 p.m. ET 09/12/2024.