For the first time in 16 and a half months, Jacob deGrom will pitch in a meaningful MLB game. He’s starting tonight for the Texas Rangers on the road against the Seattle Mariners.
The pregame narrative: Regardless of what kind of pitch limit deGrom might be on, his return to the majors is exciting for anyone who loves elite pitching. In his season debut, the two-time Cy Young winner has a strikeout line set at 6.5 and I’m riding with the over as my best bet.
Check out my Rangers vs. Mariners prop picks for Sept. 13.
Rangers vs. Mariners prop picks
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Best Bet: deGrom over 6.5 Ks (-109)
deGrom will almost certainly be on a pitch count tonight, which is the only way to explain why this line isn’t higher.
The Mariners have the highest K rate in the majors (27.3%), the second-highest whiff rate and the third-lowest chase contact rate. The past five starters who faced them posted an 11.9 K/9 collectively.
That includes Rangers rookie Kumar Rocker, who fanned seven Mariners last night in just 4.0 innings of work.
Rocker is a right-hander with an upper-90s fastball and a devastating slider. deGrom fits that exact profile, only with a harder fastball and several years of strikeout dominance under his belt.
Since 2020, the four-time all-star has posted a 14.0 K/9. That equates to just under 7.8 Ks for every five innings of work.
We may only see four or five innings of work from deGrom tonight, and the Rangers’ potential restrictiveness with him is where most of the risk lies for this wager.
But his proven efficiency as a strikeout producer — not to mention the Mariners’ strikeout efficiency from the offensive side — gives me confidence that he can hit this over on a limited workload.
Key stat: deGrom struck out 15 batters over 10.2 innings in his four rehab starts. He built up to 49 pitches over 4.0 innings in his most recent outing (Sept. 7 for Triple-A Frisco).
Quick pick
Parlay: Josh Jung, Victor Robles 1+ hits each (+117): Seattle hadn’t announced its starting pitcher at the time of this writing, but I’m willing to put Jung up against pretty much anyone right now.
With a home run last night, Jung is now batting .342 with a .998 OPS so far this month. He also has at least one hit in 27 of his past 35 games.
On Seattle’s side, Robles has had the benefit (or arguably, the misfortune) of seeing deGrom a fair amount in the past. The outfielder is 4-for-17 with a pair of doubles in those encounters.
Those numbers aren’t flashy, but it’s nice that Robles will know what he’s getting himself into tonight. Also, he’s on a wild run right now, batting 27-for-67 (.403) over his past 20 games.
Picks made at 12:00 p.m. ET 09/13/2024.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.