Two notable young quarterbacks square off on Sunday Night Football in a matchup between the Chicago Bears and Houston Texans.
The pregame narrative: Caleb Williams’ NFL debut resulted in a hideous individual stat line … but also a win. Now he and the Bears head to Houston to face C.J. Stroud, who looked exceptionally comfortable on home turf last year.
Check out my Bears vs. Texans best bets for the Week 2 matchup on Sept. 15.
Bears vs. Texans best bets
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Best Bet: Stroud over 265.5 pass yards (-118)
If Stroud had been allowed to play every game from NRG Stadium last year, he might’ve walked away with MVP honours in addition to Offensive Rookie of the Year.
That’s an unrealistic “if,” but the numbers back up the claim. Including Houston’s wild-card matchup at home, here’s what Stroud accomplished across nine games in front of the Texans’ faithful:
- 306.7 yards/game
- 66.2% completion rate
- 20 TDs
- 4 INTs
- 112.5 passer rating
Extrapolated over a 17-game sample, Stroud would’ve thrown for roughly 5,200 yards and 37 TDs. That’s MVP-calibre stuff.
With that in mind, seeing a sub-270-yard line for Stroud in his 2024 home debut looks like a smash play on the over.
His arsenal of weapons has only grown, as newcomer Stefon Diggs reminded us last week with six catches and a pair of TDs.
And sure, Joe Mixon hogged a lot of the yardage production with a high-volume rushing attack (30 carries, 159 yards), but I’m skeptical that Houston can lean on him the same way against the Bears.
Dating back to last season, Chicago’s defence ranks seventh in the NFL in rush EPA while allowing the seventh-lowest rush success rate, per rbsdm.com. The Bears allowed the fewest overall rush yards last year and the fifth-fewest yards per rush (3.8).
Stroud is more than capable of letting it fly, and he’s got the right venue and defensive matchup to do it against on Sunday.
Key stat: Stroud has thrown for over 270 passing yards in seven of nine career home games.
Quick pick
Texans -6.5 (-110): One risk to Stroud’s passing yardage prop is that Houston builds a lead and reverts to a more conservative offence.
Then again, my confidence in Stroud is baked into my expectation that the Texans will cover this line. Houston should have a huge QB advantage in Week 2.
Williams threw for just 93 yards (and zero TDs) on 29 attempts last week while taking a pair of big sacks. If not for three turnovers by Chicago’s defence, including a pick-6, the Bears wouldn’t have overcome an early 17-point deficit against the Titans.
On the road for the first time against a far more competent QB and opponent as a whole, I feel good about fading Williams and the Bears.
Picks made at 10:20 a.m. ET 09/13/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.