Jordan Horrobin

Two Japanese star pitchers will be on the mound in Los Angeles tonight as Shota Imanaga battles Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

The pregame narrative: Yamamoto makes his first start for the Los Angeles Dodgers since mid-June and looks like a great fade candidate on his strikeouts prop. On a brighter note, I’ve got plus-money plays on Mookie Betts and Chicago Cubs starter Shota Imanaga.

Check out my Cubs vs. Dodgers prop picks for Sept. 10.

Cubs vs. Dodgers prop picks

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Best Bet: Betts over 1.5 bases (+102)

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I was debating between Betts to score a run (-110) and this total bases prop, but I’m going with the bases for a couple of reasons.

First off, the price is slightly better for his bases prop. If you like two picks, it makes sense to lean in on the one with a better payout potential, right?

Another key reason is that Betts can cash this wager on his own without any assistance. And I’m not sure how much assistance his teammates will provide against the talented Imanaga.

The first-year Cub, who led his Japanese league in strikeouts a year ago, has a 2.68 ERA and a .158 opponent batting average over his past six outings.

He also tossed four scoreless innings against the Dodgers early this year. Oh, and he had seven no-hit innings in his most recent start.

So what makes me think Betts can break through?

The six-time Silver Slugger has been on a rampage over his past 15 games, posting a .352/.422/.741 slash line in that span. And he’s gone over 1.5 bases 10 times — including six of his past seven.

Although Imanaga is a tough guy to beat, he’s an interesting matchup for bases props because he has one of the lowest walk rates in the majors (4.1%, 97th percentile). Free passes ruin bases props, so I view that as a plus.

Key stat: Since 2022, Betts has a .603 SLG and a 173 wRC+ against lefties.

Quick picks

Yamamoto under 4.5 Ks (-120): This is a line Yamamoto has cleared in 12 of 14 starts this season, but I’m feeling good about the under tonight.

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Why? Because it’s Yamamoto’s first MLB start in nearly three months after hitting the injured list with triceps tightness. I simply don’t expect his workload to be substantial enough to pile up strikeouts.

Yamamoto made a pair of rehab starts with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Aug. 28 and Sept. 3. He tossed 31 and 53 pitches, respectively, in those outings while striking out a total of five batters.

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said the plan for Yamamoto is to throw between 50 and 60 pitches tonight.

With a normal workload, Yamamoto’s line wouldn’t be this low. Still, against a Cubs team with the fifth-lowest K rate over the past month (20.4%), I think the under is the play.

Imanaga over 5.5 Ks (+138): The Dodgers aren’t a high-strikeout team, but I’m looking to ride the wave with Imanaga.

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He’s cashed the over on this strikeout line in eight of his past 11 starts, as well as 17 of 26 on the season.

Way back in April, he had three Ks over four efficient innings (43 pitches) against L.A. With a heartier pitch count tonight, his strikeout ceiling will be much higher.

As mentioned with my Betts pick, Imanaga is exceptionally stingy when it comes to walks. That helps keep his pitch count down and it means he’s willing to attack hitters.

Picks made at 2:50 p.m. ET 09/10/2024.

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The New York Mets won a dramatic, low-scoring affair against the Toronto Blue Jays last night, and we could be in for a similar situation on Tuesday at Rogers Centre.

The pregame narrative: David Peterson faces former Met Chris Bassitt, and I’m targeting Peterson in this matchup. I like the over on his outs prop and I think Toronto’s run total is worth fading with him on the mound.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Mets on Sept. 10.

Blue Jays picks vs. Mets

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Best Bet: Blue Jays under 3.5 runs (-112)

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For the better part of August, Toronto had one of the best offences in baseball. Too little, too late … but still nice to see.

The Blue Jays’ bats have gone quiet once again, though, and now they’re running into their worst type of enemy: A left-handed pitcher on a roll.

Peterson has a 1.63 ERA and a .577 OPS over his past six starts. In each of those, his opponents finished under 3.5 runs.

On the whole, it’s been quite a nice season for the five-year vet. Among 128 pitchers with 90-plus innings thrown, he has the seventh-lowest ERA (2.75).

If you go by Baseball Savant’s batted ball metrics, you might call Peterson lucky. There’s quite a chasm between his 2.75 ERA and his xERA (4.87).

But what Peterson does about as well as anyone is coax ground balls — 52.8% ground ball rate, 90th percentile — and he should be able to get plenty of those from the Jays.

Toronto has the seventh-highest ground ball rate against lefties this year (44.5%). The Jays also have the third-lowest SLG against lefties (.356).

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who’s always the team’s best hope for offensive success, limped off the field on Monday after fouling a few balls off his foot. If he misses tonight’s game, this team prop should have an even better chance to cash.

Key stat: Toronto has gone under 3.5 runs in nine of its past 12 games.

Quick picks

Peterson over 17.5 outs (-129): The Mets’ bullpen is in a decent spot right now, but they did deploy four relievers last night (including their two high-leverage arms). Some length from Peterson tonight would be welcomed.

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And based on his recent results, I like his chances to work through six frames.

Peterson has gone over 17.5 outs in six of his seven starts since the beginning of August. He’s averaged 19.1 outs in that span.

If Toronto does stay under its 3.5-run projected total, Peterson will have a solid chance to collect enough outs for this bet to cash.

Daulton Varsho over 0.5 hits (-132): I don’t understand this price for Varsho, who is a much better hitter against lefties than he is against righties.

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That might seem counterintuitive since he bats from the left side, but it’s true. Just look at Varsho’s splits this year:

Peterson is a little better against lefty hitters than against righties, but the splits aren’t as drastic. Hitters on the left side are still batting .232 against him (compared to .246 for righties).

Varsho has recorded a hit in 14 of his past 19 starts.

Picks made at 9:20 a.m. on 09/10/24.

Tonight’s Chicago Cubs versus Los Angeles Dodgers matchup could be a prop bettors’ dream. The 10-run projected total is the highest of Monday’s slate.

The pregame narrative: Both starting pitchers in this matchup have been brutal lately, making it easy to find some enticing hitter prop options on both sides. I like Ian Happ on the Cubs’ side and I’m backing Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts and Will Smith for the Dodgers.

Check out my Cubs vs. Dodgers prop picks for Sept. 9.

Cubs vs. Dodgers prop picks

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Best Bet: Happ over 1.5 bases (+132)

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The Cubs are 11-5 in their past 16 games, and a major uptick in production from Happ in that span helps explain why.

Happ has a .343/.397/.537 slash line in those 16 games, cashing the over on his bases prop 11 times. Nearly half of his 23 hits during this run went for extra bases (eight doubles, one triple, one home run).

One risk with Happ is that he owns a 12.4% walk rate, which ranks in the 94th percentile in the majors. Walks don’t contribute to his bases total, so that’s not what I’m hoping to see tonight.

On the bright side, Happ only has one walk in his past nine games (38 plate appearances). His recent production suggests that he has no hesitation taking the bat off his shoulder.

With a boatload of recent extra-base hits, I know Happ is capable of clearing this total with one swing. And Dodgers starter Walker Buehler is capable of serving up a meatball to help him do it.

On the season, Buehler has allowed a .900 OPS to opposing hitters over 12 starts. He went on the injured list in June, but his four post-IL starts have been no better: .913 OPS on 21 hits in 17.0 innings.

Key stat: Buehler has allowed multiple extra-base hits in five consecutive starts.

Quick picks

Parlay: Freeman, Betts 1+ runs each (+155): You can back either of these runs props individually, but I like the thought of taking a bigger swing and pairing them.

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Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks has tons of history against this loaded Dodgers lineup, and the head-to-head matchup has mostly gone L.A.’s way. The Dodgers have a .295 BA and .482 SLG against Hendricks with just a 12.4% K rate.

Freeman has reached base in nine of 18 plate appearances against Hendricks and has scored a run in 35 of 72 games since the start of June.

Betts, meanwhile, has been excellent since returning from the IL last month. He has scored in 14 of 24 starts in that span while posting a .964 OPS

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This isn’t just about Betts and Freeman reaching base, though. L.A.’s heart-of-the-order hitters, Smith and Teoscar Hernandez, are a collective 4-for-5 with a double against Hendricks.

Smith over 0.5 RBI (+148): If someone is going to bring home Freeman and Betts, I think Smith is the perfect man for the job.

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The catcher has 13 RBI in 23 games after moving out of the No. 2 spot in the order. He’s been batting in the Nos. 4-6 spots since then, which really heightens his RBI opportunities.

In his past 23 games, Smith has 25 plate appearances with runners in scoring position (34 total PAs with runners on base). He only has a .623 OPS since the start of August, but he’s facing a struggling pitcher and I’m hunting for opportunities.

Picks made at 1:50 p.m. ET 09/09/2024.

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Back at home tonight, the Toronto Blue Jays host the white-hot New York Mets at Rogers Centre.

The pregame narrative: The Mets have won nine of their past 10 games to move into a tie for an NL wild-card spot. But their starter tonight is shaky, which has me backing Spencer Horwitz and George Springer on the prop market.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Mets on Sept. 9.

Blue Jays picks vs. Mets

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Best Bet: Horwitz over 1.5 bases (+160)

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Against lefty pitching, Horwitz has been borderline unplayable this season. But against righties, he’s putting up all-star-calibre numbers:

• vs. LHPs (59 plate appearances): .170/.237/.208 slash line, .038 ISO
• vs. RHPs (252 plate appearances): .300/.389/.530 slash line, .230 ISO

The batting averages are quite different, but what really jumps out are the SLG and ISO discrepancies. All 12 of Horwitz’s home runs — and 26 of his 28 extra-base hits — have come against right-handers.

Power potential is what matters for bases props. I want the opportunity for a player to cash the ticket with one swing (otherwise you might as well bet over 1.5 hits at much longer odds).

Horwitz hit a low point production-wise in mid-August, but he’s turned things around over the past few weeks. He’s gone over 1.5 bases in nine of his past 18 games while posting a 1.157 OPS in that span.

Yesterday, the second baseman came off the bench to go 2-for-2 with a home run. On Saturday, he went 4-for-5 with a double and two home runs.

Now Horwitz faces Tylor Megill, a pitcher who’s been hit pretty hard this season. Megill allows hard contact (i.e., 95-plus mph exit velocity) on 43.6% of balls in play, which ranks in the 12th percentile, per Baseball Savant.

Over his past six outings, Megill has allowed a .505 SLG to opposing hitters and 19 runs in 25.2 innings.

At a nice price, this looks like a worthwhile matchup to back Horwitz in.

Key stat: Lefty hitters have an .806 OPS against Megill this season, which is a 139-point jump compared to righty hitters.

Quick pick

Springer over 0.5 runs (-103): Springer has been pretty good lately, and I like the Blue Jays’ chances to do a bit of damage against Megill.

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With that in mind, this near-even-money price is good enough for me to back Toronto’s leadoff man.

Springer has a pair of three-hit games already this month, including a 3-for-5 performance with a double and a hit by pitch yesterday. He has 10 runs and an .810 OPS over his past 15 games.

Picks made at 11:20 a.m. on 09/09/24.

A pair of teams currently sitting in playoff position will battle in the desert on Sunday Night Baseball.

The pregame narrative: Justin Verlander and the Houston Astros look to complete a three-game sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks in prime time. I’m skeptical of a sweep, though, and am fading Verlander while backing Ketel Marte and the D-backs to do damage.

Check out my Astros vs. Diamondbacks picks for Sunday Night Baseball on Sept. 8.

Astros vs. Diamondbacks picks

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Best Bet: Diamondbacks over 3.5 runs (-130)

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Historically, Verlander has had a ton of success against current Diamondbacks hitters. The active lineup is just 15-for-94 (.160) against him with a whopping 35.6% K rate.

Numbers like that tell a certain story, but I don’t believe they tell the full story. Because in 2024, the D-backs are at their best and Verlander is arguably at his worst.

Arizona is the highest-scoring offence in the majors, averaging 5.38 runs per game. The D-backs also lead the way in on-base percentage (.335) while ranking second in OPS (.768) and fourth in wRC+ (112).

The 2024 season hasn’t been nearly as rosy for Verlander.

In 13 starts, the three-time Cy Young winner has a 4.73 FIP, a 20.5% K rate and a .747 opponent OPS. That’s the highest FIP ever for the 19-year veteran and his worst K rate and OPS since 2014.

I don’t mean to trash Verlander, who is undoubtedly on his way to Hall of Fame enshrinement when he calls it quits. But he’s clearly not the pitcher he once was, and this is a very attainable run total for an elite offence.

Arizona has gone over 3.5 runs in 35 of its past 43 games (81.40%), posting a .280/.357/.494 slash line in that span.

Key stat: Each of Verlander’s past five opponents has scored four-plus runs.

Quick picks

Verlander under 17.5 outs (-129): This pick pairs naturally with the over on the Diamondbacks’ team total. If they do well, Verlander shouldn’t stick around too long.

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Remember, the Diamondbacks have an .851 OPS as a team since late July. To illustrate how crazy that is, consider that only 16 qualified hitters have a better season-long OPS this year.

Verlander has long been a throwback to a previous era, priding himself on working deep into games. But this year, he hasn’t pitched past the fifth inning since May.

Coming off a start in which he tossed 107 pitches over just 4.2 innings, I think he’s an easy fade tonight.

Marte over 0.5 runs (+115): Again, I’m targeting a pick that complements my other selections. Marte is Arizona’s leadoff man, which means he should have as good of a chance as anyone to score.

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The all-star second baseman just returned from the injured list in this series and is hitless through two games. But that doesn’t take away from his excellent production throughout the year.

Marte has scored 81 runs over 111 starts, cashing this bet 61 times (55.00%). The implied probability of this bet is only 46.51%, so there’s some nice value here.

One downside is that Marte is just 2-for-16 with a double and a walk against Verlander. But as mentioned, I’m not relying on Verlander’s career numbers to influence Sunday’s predictions.

Picks made at 9:40 a.m. ET 09/08/2024.

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