Jordan Horrobin

Let’s go with a variety pack for NFL Week 1 TD picks: One running back, one receiver and one tight end.

The pregame narrative: How will Gus Edwards navigate an uncertain backfield in his Chargers debut? I think he’ll show he belongs as the goal-line back. Elsewhere, Michael Pittman and Jake Ferguson both look like solid plays to hit paydirt.

Check out the best NFL Week 1 prop bets for the upcoming games.

NFL Week 1 prop bets

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Best bet: Edwards anytime TD (+170)

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I recently backed Edwards’ teammate, J.K. Dobbins, to clear his 32.5-yard rushing prop on Sunday. But there’s no reason why Edwards can’t play a key role, too.

After an injury-plagued 2022 campaign, Edwards was back in the mix for all 17 games with the Baltimore Ravens last season. And he was a beast near the goal line.

Edwards led the NFL with 23 carries inside the five-yard line last season and turned that into 12 touchdowns.

Coming off that kind of volume, why is Edwards fetching such a juicy price to score in Week 1?

Well, he’s one of four new running backs on the Chargers. And each of the backs has a connection to the current regime:

• Edwards and J.K. Dobbins both played under Chargers offensive coordinator Greg Roman in Baltimore
• Kimani Vidal was drafted this year by L.A.’s new general manager Joe Horitz and head coach Jim Harbaugh
• Hassan Haskins, signed recently as a free agent, played under Harbaugh at Michigan from 2018-21

So it’s a bit murky, but Edwards is listed atop the depth chart and I think he belongs there. Plus, the Chargers look like a team poised to run the ball a lot this year — and not just because Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are gone.

Under Harbaugh, Michigan ran the ball more than 60% of the time last season en route to winning the college football national championship.

Edwards has demonstrated an ability to perform near the goal line, and I like his chances of bringing that production to his new team.

Key stat: Edwards and the Chargers face the Raiders on Sunday. Last year, Las Vegas allowed the 10th-highest rush success rate, per rbsdm.com.

Quick picks

Pittman anytime TD (+150): We all saw how dangerous Anthony Richardson was with his legs during a limited sample in his rookie season. Assuming the Texans key on the dual-threat QB, Pittman should have some nice opportunities to find the end zone through the air.

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Here’s what Pittman’s target allotment looked like in Richardson’s four starts last year: 11 (two red zone), 12, five (one RZ), seven (one RZ). He also ran 100% of the Colts’ routes in each of those games.

Pittman was one of nine players to see 20-plus red zone targets last year … but he only turned that into two RZ touchdowns. If the volume is there — and I believe it will be — look for Indy’s WR1 to see some positive regression.

Ferguson anytime TD (+188): The Browns’ defence is a tough one to crack, but Ferguson has as good a chance as anyone on the Cowboys to find the end zone.

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I’m not sold on an Ezekiel Elliot/Rico Dowdle backfield … are you? If the Cowboys cozy up near the goal line, Ferguson should be their go-to guy.

After all, it worked out pretty well last year. The 2022 draftee hauled in five scores as part of a 71-catch Pro Bowl season.

According to Fantasy Pros, Ferguson led all players in targets inside the five-yard line (nine). And he saw at least one red zone target in 13 of 19 games.

Picks made at 3:05 p.m. ET on 09/06/2024.

For the first time in the long and storied history of the NFL, the league will head to South America for Friday night’s Week 1 matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles.

The latest: The Eagles are favoured by a field goal in Sao Paulo, Brazil as they look to start strong after crashing out in the latter half of last season. As for the Packers, a lot of folks are wondering if last year’s late surge was a fluke — or the start of something special.

Check out my Packers vs. Eagles best bet and full odds for their Week 1 matchup on Sept. 6.

Packers vs. Eagles best bet

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Everything was going so well for the Eagles last year. Until it wasn’t.

After an overtime win in Week 12, the Eagles soared to a 10-1 record and were deemed the class of the NFC — if not the league. But they went 1-6 from there, including a miserable wild-card loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Green Bay trended in the other direction, winning six of its final eight regular season games to earn a postseason berth. From there, the Packers steamrolled the Dallas Cowboys before taking a three-point loss against the eventual NFC champion San Francisco 49ers.

On the NFC championship odds leaderboard, the Eagles and Packers sit third and fourth. This should be an exceptional test between two teams with sky-high hopes.

Back the Packers to cover

Best bet: Packers +3 (-121)

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In a neutral site game that I expect to be close, I’ll gladly bank a field goal with the Packers.

Jordan Love finished strong in his first season as a starter and I’m hopeful he can pick up where he left off with the same receiving corps, tight ends and play-caller in the mix.

From Week 10 onward last year, Love posted a 25:5 TD-to-INT ratio and a 107.8 passer rating. For context, only Brock Purdy had a higher season-long passer rating last year.

Green Bay went 6-6 straight up as an underdog and likely won’t find itself in that role as often this season.

Not to linger on the past, but the Eagles really did collapse down the stretch in 2023. They went 0-7-1 ATS in their final eight games and only had one win by more than a field goal.

Philly addressed its problematic pass defence (31st in yards and TDs allowed) through the draft, but I don’t expect rookies Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean to make a world of difference right away.

Love and the Packers should have enough offensive firepower to at least keep this close.

Key stat: Green Bay covered or pushed a +3 spread in 14 of 19 games last season.

NFL pick made at 2:05 p.m. on 09/02/24.

I’m going with a running back-heavy ticket of NFL prop bets for Week 1.

The pregame narrative: Neither Zack Moss nor J.K. Dobbins are the flashiest names in the game, but I like both to clear modest rushing yards totals with their new teams. I’m also backing Rachaad White to hit the over on his projected scrimmage yards and looking for Caleb Williams to throw an interception in his NFL debut.

Check out the best NFL Week 1 prop bets for the upcoming games.

NFL Week 1 prop bets

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Best bet: Moss over 47.5 rush yards (-117)

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The post-Joe Mixon era is underway in the Queen City. Despite all the preseason buzz around Chase Brown, I view Moss as the RB1 for this team. And with that in mind, this is a very attainable yardage line.

Moss is No. 1 on the Bengals’ official depth chart, while Brown is slated to be the team’s primary kick returner.

No doubt Brown will steal plenty of touches, but this is a game where both backs should have ample opportunities.

Cincinnati (-8) is the heaviest favourite in Week 1, which means the team has the best chance possible for a positive game script to run the ball.

And given that Ja’Marr Chase only just returned to practice in a limited capacity on Wednesday — after holding out most of the offseason in a contract dispute — it’s possible that Cincy’s passing game won’t be humming at full speed anyway.

This is a narrative-heavy pick, but what else is Week 1 for? We won’t know exactly how the Bengals use Moss until they start using him.

What I know is that a sub-50-yard total for the starting tailback on a heavy home favourite should be well within reach.

Key stat: Moss averaged 56.7 rush yards per game last year. He cleared this total in five of his eight starts.

Quick picks

Williams over 0.5 interceptions (-129): I’m counting on Williams’ “welcome to the NFL” moment coming in the season opener against a new-look Titans defence.

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Tennessee’s offseason included bringing in three-time Pro Bowler Quandre Diggs and notable ballhawk L’Jarius Sneed to beef up the secondary. Up front, rookie T’Vondre Sweat (the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year) should be expected to create pressure from the interior.

For as talented as Williams is, this will be his first Sunday seeing a bonafide NFL defence. Some mistakes should be expected, and I think the Titans can capitalize on them at least once.

White over 82.5 rushing/receiving yards (-113): The Commanders ranked dead last in points and yards allowed last year. They’ve got some new faces on defence, but this is still a group White should be able to exploit.

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White rose to the occasion as Tampa Bay’s starting running back in 2023, and he was more productive as the season progressed. Over his final 14 games (playoffs included), he averaged 98.2 scrimmage yards while notching nine touchdowns.

He also cashed the over on this rushing/receiving yardage total in 10 of those 14 games.

Baker Mayfield is clearly comfortable checking down to White, who is capable of making things happen in open space. This is a great matchup for the tailback to do damage.

Dobbins over 32.5 rush yards (-110): If you’re new to a Jim Harbaugh-led offence, welcome. It usually involves a lot of ground-and-pound run schemes.

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Harbaugh led the Michigan Wolverines to the NCAA football national championship last year while running the ball more than 60% of the time.

Now at the helm of a Chargers squad devoid of star-calibre receiving talent — not to mention a quarterback who nursed a foot injury through most of camp. I can see Harbaugh going with a run-heavy approach in his NFL return.

Dobbins is the 1B behind Gus Edwards, but Edwards doesn’t have the profile of a bell-cow. He averaged 11.6 carries per game last year with the Ravens, who ran the ball at a higher rate than anyone else.

I think 10 carries is a fair target for Dobbins on Sunday against the Raiders. If he hits that mark, he should cash this ticket.

Picks made at 12:35 p.m. ET on 09/05/2024.