Jordan Horrobin

The final chapter of the Freeway Series unfolds tonight as the Los Angeles Angels host the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The pregame narrative: Neither pitcher scares me in this matchup, so I’m backing plus-money plays for hitters on both sides. Look for Will Smith, Mookie Betts, Taylor Ward and Mickey Moniak to make their mark.

Check out my Dodgers vs. Angels prop picks for Sept. 4.

Dodgers vs. Angels prop picks

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Best Bet: Smith over 0.5 RBI (+140)

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Want in on the Dodgers’ Big Three without all the juice? Here’s an indirect way to get on board in a really enticing matchup.

Angels starter Griffin Canning has a 6.08 ERA and an .827 opponent OPS in 10 outings since the start of July. Last year, he was chased in the third inning against the Dodgers (four runs on five hits in 2.2 innings).

In other words, he’s someone this potent Dodgers offence should tee off against.

The trio of Shohei Ohtani (-265), Mookie Betts (-165) and Freddie Freeman (-132) all have plenty of juice on their run props tonight. Who’s going to drive them in? I’m hoping Smith has something to say about that from the No. 5 spot in the Dodgers’ lineup.

Smith has only cashed this RBI bet in three of his past nine games, but the opportunity volume is still robust.

Over that nine-game span, the catcher has had runners in scoring position in 13 of 38 plate appearances — just over a third of the time.

Ohtani and Freeman both rank in MLB’s top 10 for on-base percentage, and Betts would be in that group too if he had the qualified volume of plate appearances. It’s no wonder Smith often has traffic on the basepaths.

The Dodgers’ current lineup is 16-for-43 (.372) with 10 extra-base hits against Canning. If they do damage again tonight, Smith should have chances to deliver.

Key stat: Smith is 2-for-4 with a double and a walk against Canning.

Quick picks

Betts over 0.5 RBI (+133): If Smith’s RBI opportunities are lacking tonight, it could be because Betts has already cleaned up at the plate.

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The No. 2 spot in a baseball lineup isn’t the best place to rack up RBI, but Betts has had a bounty of RBI chances in recent games.

Over his past seven games, Betts has had 14 plate appearances with RISP — nearly half of his 31 PAs in that span.

Betts has cashed this prop in 10 of his past 13 games. Also, he’s 2-for-5 against Canning with a double and a home run.

Parlay: Ward, Moniak 1+ hits each (+112): Canning isn’t the only pitcher worth picking on tonight. Dodgers righty Bobby Miller has a .296 opponent BA this season, so I’m parlaying two Angels hitters at plus money.

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First, let’s talk about Ward. The Halos’ leadoff man enters tonight on a 13-game hit streak and is batting .290 since the start of last month. He feels like a strong bet to record a hit.

To get to plus-money odds, though, we have to add someone else. Moniak went hitless in back-to-back games but is still a sensible option.

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The former No. 1 overall pick had a fantastic August, slashing .359/.397/.719 in 19 games. From the left side of the plate, he prefers to do damage against righties like Miller.

Picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET 09/04/2024.

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In the lone afternoon game of the day, the Toronto Blue Jays host the Philadelphia Phillies to wrap up a two-game set.

The pregame narrative: Can Bowden Francis bring his awesomeness from August into a new month? We’ll find out today as he takes the mound against the No. 2 team in the National League. I like the Blue Jays on the F5 moneyline and I’m backing both Francis and Daulton Varsho in the prop market.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Phillies on Sept. 4.

Blue Jays picks vs. Phillies

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Best Bet: Blue Jays draw no bet – first five innings (+110)

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Toronto put up six runs in the first inning yesterday and still found a way to lose the ballgame. I’m not interested in backing the Jays’ bullpen, which ranks 28th in ERA (4.81) and 27th in K/9 (8.0).

But I’ll gladly take a plus-money flier on the first half of the game, as Francis looks to keep his heater alive on the mound.

August’s AL Pitcher of the Month has allowed just four runs and nine hits over his past 34.0 innings of work. That equates to a 1.06 ERA and a .081 opponent batting average.

Unsurprisingly, Toronto led at the F5 mark in each of those games. In fact, the Jays have been F5 winners in each of Francis’ past seven starts.

Phillies starter Cristopher Sanchez had an excellent start against the Jays in May, tossing 7.0 innings of one-run ball. But six of Toronto’s starters from that game are no longer on the team, so that doesn’t tell us much about how he should fare tonight.

And really, Sanchez could be in for a bit of a wake-up call. The Jays rank fifth in wRC+ (116) and fifth in SLG (.443) since the all-star break.

A tie at the five-inning mark would mean a push for this bet. With Francis humming on the mound and Toronto’s offence posting strong numbers lately, I expect at least that much from the Jays.

Key stat: The Blue Jays went 5-0-0 on the F5 moneyline in Francis’ five starts in August.

Quick picks

Francis over 17.5 outs (-125): Toronto used six relievers in last night’s meltdown, and three of them tossed 20-plus pitches. A start with some length from Francis would be more than welcomed.

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Francis has cashed this bet in four consecutive starts, averaging 21.8 outs per game in that span. And as mentioned, he was utterly dominant over the past month.

The Phillies have a ferocious offence, but they’ve never seen Francis before. And even if they get to him a bit, Francis is more than capable of collecting quick outs (he completed 7.0 IP in just 70 pitches last time out).

Varsho over 0.5 runs (+135): Lefty-lefty matchups are rarely good news for hitters, and yet that’s when Varsho has been at his best this season.

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The outfielder is batting .294 with an .832 OPS against LHPs. By contrast, he’s batting .199 with a .688 OPS against RHPs.

Varsho hits from the No. 2 spot in the Jays’ lineup, just ahead of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. That’s about as good of a run-scoring spot as you can ask for.

Guerrero, coming off a four-hit night, has a 1.315 OPS since the all-star break and owns a 1.070 OPS this season against lefties.

Picks made at 9:45 a.m. on 09/04/24.

In the final MLB game on Labour Day, the New York Yankees open a three-game series against the Texas Rangers.

The pregame narrative: Gerrit Cole is on the mound for the Yankees, and his plus-money strikeouts prop is catching my eye. I’m also tailing the bases props of Corey Seager and Giancarlo Stanton.

Check out my top Yankees vs. Rangers prop picks for Sept. 2.

Yankees vs. Rangers prop picks

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Best bet: Cole over 6.5 Ks (+125)

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The two-time strikeout king isn’t at the peak of his powers, but I still find this prop price a touch disrespectful for Cole.

After missing more than two-and-a-half months with an elbow injury, Cole has since made 12 starts this year for the Yankees. The first two were ramp-up starts with an atypical workload, so I’m not putting much stock in them. But here’s what he’s done in his past 10 outings:

• Six starts with over 6.5 Ks
• 10.5 K/9
• 27.5% K rate

Extrapolated over a full season, that K/9 would put him in the top 10 among qualified pitchers (just ahead of Freddy Peralta). And that K% would put him in the 83rd percentile (right in line with Zack Wheeler).

So although we’ve seen flashier strikeout numbers from Cole in the past, he’s still shoving with some of the best.

The reigning AL Cy Young winner also put on his best show of the year against these very same Rangers.

On Aug. 10, Cole struck out 10 Texas hitters over just 5.1 innings of one-run ball. The Rangers whiffed on exactly half of their 52 swings against him … and for context, MLB’s average whiff rate is just 25.1%.

I think Cole can carve up this Rangers’ offence again, and I’ll gladly take that challenge on at plus money.

Key stat: Cole has gone over 6.5 Ks in three of his past four starts, as well as each of his past three road starts.

Quick picks

Seager over 1.5 bases (-103): Seager’s hot streak over the past month is too good to ignore.

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Since Aug. 2, Seager has a .287/.328/.657 slash line in 26 games. He’s cashed this bet 15 times in that span.

Seager doesn’t have a ton of success against Cole, but they have seen each other a solid amount of times. In past head-to-head matchups, Seager is 5-for-19 (.263) with a double.

Swinging a hot bat entering a platoon advantage matchup, I think there’s plenty to like about Seager tonight (Seager has a .910 OPS vs. RHPs in his career)

Stanton over 1.5 bases (+100): Jack Leiter is expected to start for the Rangers, and he’s gotten absolutely shelled through his first four MLB starts. So I really want a piece of the Yankees’ offence.

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With Stanton, I’m backing a guy who’s making every hit count right now. He’s 9-for-31 (.290) in his past nine games, and seven of those hits went for extra bases.

Leiter has allowed 24 hits, 22 runs and a 1.100 opponent OPS through just 13.1 big-league innings so far.

Picks made at 11:30 a.m. ET on 09/02/2024.

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We’re pulling three prop bets from the evening slate of MLB’s Labour Day action.

The pregame narrative: Ian Happ and the Chicago Cubs are rolling right now, which has me backing the leadoff man to cross the plate at plus-money odds. I’m also seeking plus-money returns on a combo wager involving Luis Severino and Masataka Yoshida.

Check out how I’m backing them in the top MLB prop bets for Sept. 2.

MLB prop bets

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Best bet: Happ over 0.5 runs (+106)

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The Cubs are on fire right now, and Happ is at the centre of their success as the team vies for a wild-card berth.

Chicago is 15-6 in its past 21 games. In the same span, Happ has scored 19 runs while posting a .314/.398/.616 slash line.

Happ is one of baseball’s hottest hitters dating back to Aug. 7, ranking ninth in wRC+ (180) and 10th in OPS (1.014).

Tonight, he and the Cubs will face Pittsburgh Pirates starter Jared Jones, who’s had a strong rookie year but got rocked by the Cubs last time out. After nearly two months on the injured list, Jones returned on Aug. 27 and allowed five runs on five hits and three walks over just 4.0 innings.

Happ hit a leadoff double in that game. He’s now 3-for-9 with a double and a home run against Jones.

Run props usually rely on the contributions of teammates, so it’s nice to know that the guys behind Happ have strong numbers against Jones, too.

Chicago’s Nos. 2-4 hitters — Michael Busch, Seiya Suzuki and Cody Bellinger — are a combined 7-for-18 (.389) against Jones with six extra-base hits.

Key stat: Happ has scored in two of three matchups against Jones this season.

Quick picks

Parlay: Severino under 18.5 outs, Yoshida 1+ hits (+108): Fading Severino is the backbone of this wager, but I figured I’d combine it with Yoshida’s hits prop to provide a plus-money option.

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Seeing Severino’s outs line set at 18.5 is perplexing given that he’s only cashed that bet in two of his past 10 starts (and eight of 26 on the year). Yes, he tossed a shutout in mid-August, but that’s the only time he’s recorded an out past the fifth inning since July 20.

Boston’s offence has been pretty cold, but it’d be out of character for Severino to clear this line.

And speaking of Boston’s offence, one bright spot is certainly Yoshida. He has a .352 BA in his past 25 games and has recorded a hit in 16 of his past 22 starts.

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Yoshida, a lefty batter, has the platoon advantage against Severino tonight. The outfielder has a .304 BA in his career against RHPs.

Lawrence Butler over 1.5 bases (+128): If you haven’t followed the A’s this year, no one’s blaming you. But that probably means you’ve missed out on Butler’s bonafide heater.

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Amid an 11-game hit streak, the second-year outfielder has gone over 1.5 bases nine times.

Logan Gilbert is on the mound for the Seattle Mariners tonight and should pose a tough test. But Butler is slugging .513 against RHPs this year and I’ll take my chances amid this insane run.

From the leadoff spot, Butler has six HR and three 2B in just his past six games.

Picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET on 09/02/2024.

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks combined for 19 runs last night, and there are some enticing options on tonight’s prop market.

The pregame narrative: Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy are my targets on the Dodgers’ side as they look to get to D-backs starter Merrill Kelly. On Arizona’s side, I’m liking what I’ve seen this month from Corbin Carroll.

Check out my Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks prop picks for Aug. 31.

Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks prop picks

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Best Bet: Muncy over 0.5 runs (+106)

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I was torn between Muncy’s bases prop and his runs prop for my best bet. Frankly, both look like good options.

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After a two-month absence due to an oblique strain, Muncy didn’t miss a beat when slotting back into the lineup on Aug. 19. He has a .269/.406/.654 slash line in nine games since then, reaching base 13 times in nine games.

The Dodgers, who’ve scored 5.3 runs per game this month, look poised for another strong night against Kelly. L.A.’s current lineup is batting .303 with a .491 SLG against Kelly in a whopping 256-plate-appearance sample.

And Muncy is at the centre of that success. He’s 14-for-37 (.378) with six walks and five extra-base hits against Kelly.

Batting in the back half of L.A.’s lineup means Muncy typically doesn’t have as strong of a chance to score.

But he’s been excellent in this head-to-head matchup, and the Dodgers’ lineup has enough overall success against Kelly that I think he’s worth a go at this price.

Key stat: Muncy has scored seven runs in nine games since returning from the injured list.

Quick picks

Freeman over 0.5 RBI (+140): Looking higher up in the Dodgers’ lineup, I expect Freeman to have some RBI opportunities with two bonafide studs batting ahead of him.

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Freeman, the No. 3 hitter, bats after Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts. Ohtani has reached base 21 times in his past 12 games, while Betts has scored in five of his past six.

In his past 11 games, Freeman has had 17 plate appearances with runners in scoring position. That’s about all you can ask for as a potential RBI producer.

The eight-time all-star is 8-for-29 with six extra-base hits (.552 SLG) against Kelly.

Carroll over 1.5 bases (+118): Finally, Carroll found his power stroke.

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Entering August, Carroll had an inexplicably low .358 SLG. He’s almost doubled that mark this month.

In his past 26 games, the lightning-quick outfielder has a .278/.346/.680 slash line. He’s cashed this bet in 12 of 22 August starts.

Carroll’s sample size against L.A. starter Gavin Stone is small but respectable: 2-for-6 with a double. I’m more interested in Carroll’s resurgence as a whole, which has been very encouraging to see.

Picks made at 11:10 a.m. ET 08/31/2024.

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I’m fading a pitcher and backing a trio of hitters in Saturday’s MLB prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Cole Ragans is having a strong season but is running into a tough matchup tonight and should finish under his strikeout total. At the plate, I’m backing Nick Castellanos to go over 1.5 bases and a plus-money hits parlay for Justin Turner and Mickey Moniak.

Check out how I’m backing them in the top MLB prop bets for Aug. 31.

MLB prop bets

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Best bet: Ragans under 6.5 Ks (-143)

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Ragans was an all-star this year, and deservedly so. He’s also in the top tier of pitchers in terms of whiff rate (92nd percentile, per Baseball Savant) and K rate (89th percentile).

But this is a line he should fall under against the Houston Astros, who are a tough matchup for pretty much anyone looking to rack up strikeouts.

Houston has the third-lowest K rate in the majors against left-handed pitchers (18.8%). And the Astros’ active lineup has an even lower K rate against Ragans (13.0% in 77 plate appearances).

Ragans has an impressive 10.8 K/9 this year, and a lot of his strikeout success comes via his changeup. The pitch doesn’t drop out of the zone vertically (the way Trevor Richards’ does), but rather it runs away from hitters horizontally while maintaining a similar plane to his mid-90s fastball.

That sounds like a winning recipe — and it often is — but I’m not banking on it against the Astros.

Houston has a 29.9% whiff rate against changeups. For context, Ragans’ changeup whiff rate is 47.7%.

And again, the Astros have handled themselves fine against Ragans in the past. He finished with exactly five strikeouts against Houston in their past two matchups (April 9, 2024; Sept. 22, 2023).

Key stat: Ragans is coming off a four-strikeout performance, which is his lowest total since mid-May.

Quick picks

Castellanos over 1.5 bases (+138): After subpar results for much of the season, Castellanos is entering the home stretch in great form.

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Since the all-star break, the right fielder is batting .290 with a .503 SLG. His season-long OPS has improved by more than 40 points in that span.

I’m loving his matchup tonight against Atlanta Braves left-hander Max Fried. In previous meetings, Castellanos is 11-for-21 against Fried with a double and a home run.

Throughout his career, Castellanos has an .878 OPS against lefties (.302 BA).

Parlay: Moniak, Turner 1+ hits each (+148): If you’re willing to deal with similar juice as my Ragans best bet, you could definitely ride with Moniak as a straight wager.

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The 2016 first-overall pick is batting .350 in August and has hit safely in 12 of 18 games. He’s also coming off three consecutive multi-hit games and is 3-for-9 against Seattle Mariners starter Bryan Woo.

For those interested in turning this into a plus-money play, consider parlaying Moniak with Turner.

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The ex-Blue Jay has cashed this bet in six of his past eight starts and has remarkable numbers against Los Angeles Angels starter Tyler Anderson.

Turner is 18-for-38 (.474) with three homers and five doubles against the left-handed Anderson.

Picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET on 08/31/2024.