In the lone afternoon game of the day, the Toronto Blue Jays host the Philadelphia Phillies to wrap up a two-game set.
The pregame narrative: Can Bowden Francis bring his awesomeness from August into a new month? We’ll find out today as he takes the mound against the No. 2 team in the National League. I like the Blue Jays on the F5 moneyline and I’m backing both Francis and Daulton Varsho in the prop market.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Phillies on Sept. 4.
Blue Jays picks vs. Phillies
MLB markets: Click Here | MLB stats: Click Here
Best Bet: Blue Jays draw no bet – first five innings (+110)
Toronto put up six runs in the first inning yesterday and still found a way to lose the ballgame. I’m not interested in backing the Jays’ bullpen, which ranks 28th in ERA (4.81) and 27th in K/9 (8.0).
But I’ll gladly take a plus-money flier on the first half of the game, as Francis looks to keep his heater alive on the mound.
August’s AL Pitcher of the Month has allowed just four runs and nine hits over his past 34.0 innings of work. That equates to a 1.06 ERA and a .081 opponent batting average.
Unsurprisingly, Toronto led at the F5 mark in each of those games. In fact, the Jays have been F5 winners in each of Francis’ past seven starts.
Phillies starter Cristopher Sanchez had an excellent start against the Jays in May, tossing 7.0 innings of one-run ball. But six of Toronto’s starters from that game are no longer on the team, so that doesn’t tell us much about how he should fare tonight.
And really, Sanchez could be in for a bit of a wake-up call. The Jays rank fifth in wRC+ (116) and fifth in SLG (.443) since the all-star break.
A tie at the five-inning mark would mean a push for this bet. With Francis humming on the mound and Toronto’s offence posting strong numbers lately, I expect at least that much from the Jays.
Key stat: The Blue Jays went 5-0-0 on the F5 moneyline in Francis’ five starts in August.
Quick picks
Francis over 17.5 outs (-125): Toronto used six relievers in last night’s meltdown, and three of them tossed 20-plus pitches. A start with some length from Francis would be more than welcomed.
Francis has cashed this bet in four consecutive starts, averaging 21.8 outs per game in that span. And as mentioned, he was utterly dominant over the past month.
The Phillies have a ferocious offence, but they’ve never seen Francis before. And even if they get to him a bit, Francis is more than capable of collecting quick outs (he completed 7.0 IP in just 70 pitches last time out).
Varsho over 0.5 runs (+135): Lefty-lefty matchups are rarely good news for hitters, and yet that’s when Varsho has been at his best this season.
The outfielder is batting .294 with an .832 OPS against LHPs. By contrast, he’s batting .199 with a .688 OPS against RHPs.
Varsho hits from the No. 2 spot in the Jays’ lineup, just ahead of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. That’s about as good of a run-scoring spot as you can ask for.
Guerrero, coming off a four-hit night, has a 1.315 OPS since the all-star break and owns a 1.070 OPS this season against lefties.
Picks made at 9:45 a.m. on 09/04/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.