Jordan Horrobin

While the Minnesota Twins continue their playoff push, the Toronto Blue Jays look to play spoiler in tonight’s series opener.

The pregame narrative: Kevin Gausman has struggled in the past against Minnesota, and I’m calling on the Twins to get to him again tonight. The Twins have lost eight of their past 10 games and certainly need a spark.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Twins on Aug. 30.

Blue Jays picks vs. Twins

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Best Bet: Twins over 4.5 runs (+107)

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Minnesota is probably going to have to hit its way out of this current downward spiral, and I think that can happen tonight.

For one thing, the Twins know how to rake against Gausman. They’ve seen him plenty of times before and teed off in recent seasons.

Last year, the Twins scored six runs off Gausman over 4.2 innings in a 7-6 loss.

This past May, the Twins scored seven runs off him over 3.0 innings in a 10-8 loss.

Losses, aside, Minnesota did its job in both matchups to cash this bet. Its current lineup is 33-for-111 (.297) with five home runs, seven doubles and 14 walks against Gausman.

So although Gausman has been solid over the past two months (3.13 ERA in nine starts), I think the Twins have shown enough for me to give this pick some consideration.

What puts me over the top is Minnesota’s ability to do damage at home.

The Twins have the best home SLG (.454) and OPS in baseball (.789) and are averaging a crisp 5.0 runs per game at Target Field.

Key stat: Minnesota has gone over 4.5 runs in seven of its past 11 games.

Quick pick

Willi Castro over 0.5 runs (+107): The switch-hitting Castro tends to bat leadoff against right-handed pitchers, so he’ll be in prime position to score for the home team tonight.

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And although his numbers in August are just okay (.713 OPS in 25 games), he’s still cashed this bet 15 times.

Given that Castro is 2-for-5 with two doubles against Gausman — and he scored when the Twins faced Gausman in May — I think he can keep that trend rolling tonight.

Parlay: Daulton Varsho, George Springer under 1.5 bases each (+115): Both Varsho and Springer have had modest resurgences this month, but neither is a reliable option to clear his bases prop.

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Let’s start with Varsho, who has an .807 OPS this month but has still gone under this number in 14 of 22 games. He’s had a few strong outings surrounded by a bunch of duds.

Also, he’s just 1-for-8 with a strikeout against Twins starter Pablo Lopez.

Springer, meanwhile, is 1-for-6 with a strikeout against Lopez. And though he was solid for a recent spell, Springer is still batting just .170 for the month.

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Furthermore, Springer is hitless in five of his past seven games and has gone under 1.5 bases in 15 of his past 23.

Picks made at 9:30 a.m. on 08/30/24.

A suspect pitching matchup in tonight’s Baltimore Orioles versus Los Angeles Dodgers matchup has me targeting a few batter props.

The pregame narrative: Teoscar Hernandez and Mookie Betts both crush lefties, and I think they can keep that up against Baltimore’s Cade Povich. I’m also backing Colton Cowser and Gunnar Henderson in a plus-money hits parlay.

Check out my Orioles vs. Dodgers prop picks for Aug. 29.

Orioles vs. Dodgers prop picks

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Best Bet: Hernandez over 0.5 RBI (+125)

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My only hesitation with this pick is the price. Hernandez has the shortest RBI odds in tonight’s matchup, and these odds won’t produce as juicy of a payout as most RBI props typically do.

Of course, there’s a reason for that. This is about as promising of a situation as Hernandez could find himself in, so I’m taking the plunge nonetheless.

Hernandez has had a bountiful month in terms of RBI opportunities and results. His 31 plate appearances in August with runners in scoring position are tied for 10th in the majors — and he’s batting .370 in those spots.

In August as a whole, Hernandez has 18 RBI and a .278/.330/.544 slash line.

I expect Hernandez and the Dodgers to rake against Baltimore Orioles starter Cade Povich, who is having a brutal summer.

In five starts between July and August, Povich has allowed 24 runs and a 1.008 OPS in 22.0 innings. L.A. has the fourth-highest OPS in the majors (.762) and should be able to stir up traffic on the basepaths.

And against a left-hander like Povich, Hernandez should be able to take advantage.

Key stat: Hernandez has a .923 OPS against lefties his season.

Quick picks

Betts over 0.5 runs (-125): Betts cashed this pick at +102 yesterday and I’m going back to the well tonight. He bats two spots ahead of Hernandez, so there’s a chance I can hit both picks on one swing.

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Betts has reached base 21 times in 14 starts since returning from the injured list, posting a .828 OPS in that span. He has also scored in three of his past four games.

The eight-time all-star ranks in the 98th percentile in both walk rate and K rate, per Baseball Savant. And he has a 1.002 OPS against LHPs since 2022.

Parlay: Cowser, Henderson 1+ hits each (+107): L.A. starter Bobby Miller has allowed 50 hits in just 39.2 innings this year (.313 opponent BA), so I think it makes sense to target some Orioles’ hits props in a plus-money play.

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Cowser, who tends to bat leadoff for the O’s, has cashed this prop in 31 of his past 40 games and is batting .293 in that span.

Henderson, meanwhile, is batting .292 over his past 80 games and has cashed this prop 60 times in that span.

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Recently, Henderson has gone through a bit of a rough patch. But his .289 BA against righties this year — paired with Miller’s overall struggles — make this seem like a very attainable bet.

Picks made at 2:30 p.m. ET 08/29/2024.

The Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox wrap up a four-game set tonight at Fenway Park.

The pregame narrative: Bowden Francis looks to keep the good times rolling tonight after four consecutive strong starts. I’m taking the over on his strikeouts prop and looking for the Jays to lead at the halfway mark.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Red Sox on Aug. 29.

Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox

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Best Bet: Blue Jays to lead after five innings (+138)

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This is a great price to back one starter moving in the right direction while fading a starter that’s trending way down.

Francis seems to have figured some things out this month, posting a 1.32 ERA and a .100 opponent BA in 27.1 innings. He’s slid back into Toronto’s rotation over the past four turns and has certainly earned that promotion.

I don’t want to make too much of a sub-30-inning sample, but it doesn’t look fluky. His hard-hit rate is only 33% — the league average is 38.9% — and his xBA allowed is .141, per Baseball Savant.

While Francis is entering the stretch run on a high note, Boston’s Kutter Crawford has been utterly flat since the all-star break.

Crawford has an 8.13 ERA and a .917 opponent OPS in his past seven outings, allowing 31 runs in just 34.1 innings.

Boston’s offence has bailed Crawford out more than he deserves, so the team’s F5 record in those games is 3-4-0. But I don’t think a similar bailout is coming against Francis.

Expect Francis to keep the pedal on the floor against a Red Sox squad that is 22nd in on-base percentage over the past two weeks (.301).

Key stat: Toronto is 6-0-0 on the F5 moneyline in Francis’ past six starts.

Quick pick

Francis over 5.5 Ks (-105): If you’re willing to ride the wave with Francis, this bet makes a ton of sense.

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The right-hander has seven or more Ks in all four starts this month, and he’s coming off a 12-strikeout performance against the Los Angeles Angels.

L.A. has the 11th-highest K rate in the majors, so you could say they’re a slightly favourable matchup. But Boston is even more enticing.

The Red Sox’s 25.2% K rate is the third-highest in baseball. Eight of the last 10 starters to face Boston finished over 5.5 Ks.

Picks made at 12:40 p.m. on 08/29/24.

I’m all over the Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies matchup for tonight’s MLB prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Bryce Harper is in a familiar matchup and should be able to do damage. On the Braves’ side, I’m fading the bases props for a pair of hitters. Elsewhere, Bobby Witt Jr. has great value to score against the Houston Astros.

Check out how I’m backing them in the top MLB prop bets for Aug. 28.

MLB prop bets

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Best bet: Harper over 1.5 bases (+148)

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Harper gets a great price tonight to stay hot at the plate while facing a pitcher he’s already tagged.

What’s not to like?

It’s largely been a second-half swoon for Harper, whose .983 OPS at the break has fallen nearly 100 points since. But he’s back to swinging a hot stick, cashing his bases prop in five of the past six games.

Tonight, Harper faces longtime foe Charlie Morton, and the head-to-head history favours the two-time MVP.

Harper is 11-for-27 (.407) with a home run, a triple and a double off Morton. He’s also drawn eight walks, which doesn’t help the bases prop but could indicate that he sees the ball well out of Morton’s hand.

Speaking of Morton, I think he’s someone to fade on the road on Thursday. Here’s how his past two starts in Philadelphia went:

• Sept. 11, 2023: 6.0 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 4 BB
• Sept. 9, 2022: 4.2 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 3 BB

Harper still ranks 14th in MLB in slugging percentage (.520) and 12th in OPS (.887). In a great matchup, I’m happy to ride with him at a price like this.

Key stat: Harper has gone over 1.5 bases in 49 of 117 games (41.9%). The implied probability of this prop bet is 40.3%.

Quick picks

Witt over 0.5 runs (+100): It’s too late for Witt to win MVP, but he’s not slowing down in the slightest.

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Since July began, Witt has been on an absurd offensive run. In his past 48 games, he has 49 runs and a 1.230 OPS. He has cashed his runs prop in 34 of those 48 games, which makes this even-money price look like a steal.

Witt hits for power and can get into scoring position with his fleet feet, too. He has an extra-base hit in five straight games and in 14 of his past 20.

Parlay: Michael Harris II, Orlando Arcia both under 1.5 bases (-129): A minus-odds combo wager might seem like nasty work, but I think the justification is there to fade these guys against Phillies starter Cristopher Sanchez.

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Harris, who is 0-for-7 with five strikeouts against Sanchez, has a .595 OPS and a 26.5% K rate over his past 25 games. He’s only cashed this bet five times in that span.

Arcia, who is 0-for-8 with three strikeouts against Sanchez, has a .158/.258/.281 slash line since Aug. 12. He’s gone under 1.5 bases in 13 of his past 16 games.

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Though Arcia would seem to have a platoon advantage as a righty hitter against the left-handed Sanchez, that isn’t the case. Arcia has a measly .255 SLG against lefties this year over 110 at-bats.

Picks made at 2:22 p.m. ET on 08/29/2024.

Neither Corbin Burnes nor Walker Buehler is pitching his best right now, which is why I’m looking at three offensive prop bets for tonight’s Baltimore Orioles versus Los Angeles Dodgers matchup.

The pregame narrative: Gunnar Henderson is having a superb season and looks like a nice pick to cash a plus-money bases prop on Wednesday. I’m also tailing the run props for both Mookie Betts and Colton Cowser.

Check out my Orioles vs. Dodgers prop picks for Aug. 28.

Orioles vs. Dodgers prop picks

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Best Bet: Henderson over 1.5 bases (+106)

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Before hyping up Henderson, I first want to give a bit of context for Buehler’s dreadful results this year.

The L.A. starter, who has only pitched 10 times in an injury-riddled campaign, has allowed a .308/.372/.551 slash line. That equates to a .923 OPS, which matches the 10th-best mark among qualified hitters (Oakland’s Brent Rooker).

Baseball Savant’s expected metrics are no kinder on Buehler. According to its pitch-tracking data, he ranks in the 10th percentile or worst in xERA (5.28) and xBA (.278).

With all of that in mind, Henderson looks like a perfect candidate to tee off at Dodger Stadium.

The all-star third baseman ranks 10th in the majors in SLG (.542). He has cashed this bet in 63 of 131 games, so just south of half.

Facing a struggling starter who provides a platoon advantage gives me plenty of confidence that Henderson can clear 1.5 bases again tonight.

The lefty batter has a .571 SLG and a .937 OPS against right-handers this season. On the flip side, lefties have a .638 SLG and a 1.067 OPS against Buehler.

Key stat: Henderson ranks in the 92nd percentile or better in terms of xBA, xSLG, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity.

Quick pick

Cowser over 0.5 runs (-115): I thought about going with the switch-hitting Adley Rutschman to score (+100), but his numbers as a lefty hitter aren’t very encouraging. So I’ll back another true lefty bat instead.

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When a right-hander is on the mound, Cowser bats leadoff for the O’s, which means batting ahead of three all-stars in Rutschman, Henderson and Anthony Santander.

Over his past 30 games, Cowser has a respectable .772 OPS and has scored 25 runs. He’s cashed this bet 17 times.

Strikeouts have been Cowser’s primary issue, as his K rate is nearly 30.0%. But Buehler has largely been pitching to contact, with a minuscule 16.9% K rate (10th percentile in MLB).

Betts over 0.5 runs (+102): Burnes has allowed 22 runs over 20.2 innings this month, so I’m eager to get in on a run prop from the Dodgers’ side of things.

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Shohei Ohtani’s -141 odds to score aren’t quite speaking to me. But a plus-money price for Betts? That’ll play.

Betts has reached base 20 times in 13 starts since returning from the injured list, posting an .852 OPS in that span. He no longer bats leadoff for L.A., but his No. 2 spot in the lineup is still prime real estate.

The eight-time all-star ranks in the 98th percentile in both walk rate and K rate.

Picks made at 11:10 a.m. ET 08/28/2024.

The Toronto Blue Jays have excellent numbers against Boston Red Sox starter Brayan Bello, which is why I’m backing a pair of Jays sluggers for tonight’s matchup.

The pregame narrative: George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have seen Bello 20 times apiece and done plenty of damage. I like Springer to score and Vladdy to record an RBI in the penultimate game of this series.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Red Sox on Aug. 28.

Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox

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Best Bet: Springer over 0.5 runs (-105)

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Is it boring to have the same best bet in back-to-back days? Not if it hits.

Springer walked and scored last night, marking his third consecutive game cashing his runs prop. He’s also scored in eight of his past 13 games despite batting just .212 in that span.

The low batting average doesn’t tell Springer’s recent story very well. He also has seven walks and six extra-base hits in that 13-game span — good for an .828 OPS.

I mentioned yesterday that Springer is in a great position to score because he bats two spots ahead of Guerrero. Of course, that’s still true tonight.

Guerrero is on a prolonged heater that I’ll talk about more in a moment. For now, just know that he is 8-for-19 (.421) with two home runs, three doubles and a walk against Bello.

In similar fashion, Springer is 8-for-20 (.400) with a homer and a double against Boston’s starting pitcher.

Dating back to 2022, Springer has scored in five of seven games with Bello on the mound. I really like his chances to keep that up tonight.

Key stat: Springer has cashed his run prop in 23 of 43 games since returning to Toronto’s leadoff spot in early July.

Quick picks

Guerrero over 0.5 RBI (+155): In addition to Guerrero’s .421 BA against Bello, I like the fact that the hitters in front of him have thrived in this matchup, too.

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Springer and No. 2 batter Daulton Varsho are collectively 10-for-26 (.385) against the right-hander. And Varsho is on a nice run lately, posting a 1.005 OPS over his past 10 starts.

Between Springer and Varsho, the hope is that there’ll be some traffic on the basepaths when Guerrero digs in. The all-star first baseman should be able to take it from there.

Vladdy has now posted four consecutive multi-hit games. But his remarkable run of production goes back much further than that.

Over his past 56 games, Guerrero has 56 RBI and has cashed this prop 27 times.

Chris Bassitt over 17.5 outs (-112): Bassitt has been shaky overall, but not in this matchup.

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In four starts against Boston since last August, the Toronto starter has tossed six-plus innings each time while allowing just seven total runs.

The only Red Sox player who’s crushed him is Rafael Devers, who sat out yesterday due to multiple shoulder injuries. Boston manager Alex Cora reportedly indicated that if Devers “needs two or three (days), we’ll do it.” So there’s a chance he’ll be out again tonight.

Devers’ availability is something to monitor, but either way, Toronto should hope for some length from Bassitt two days removed from a doubleheader.

Picks made at 9:20 a.m. on 08/28/24.