The Toronto Blue Jays have excellent numbers against Boston Red Sox starter Brayan Bello, which is why I’m backing a pair of Jays sluggers for tonight’s matchup.
The pregame narrative: George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have seen Bello 20 times apiece and done plenty of damage. I like Springer to score and Vladdy to record an RBI in the penultimate game of this series.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Red Sox on Aug. 28.
Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox
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Best Bet: Springer over 0.5 runs (-105)
Is it boring to have the same best bet in back-to-back days? Not if it hits.
Springer walked and scored last night, marking his third consecutive game cashing his runs prop. He’s also scored in eight of his past 13 games despite batting just .212 in that span.
The low batting average doesn’t tell Springer’s recent story very well. He also has seven walks and six extra-base hits in that 13-game span — good for an .828 OPS.
I mentioned yesterday that Springer is in a great position to score because he bats two spots ahead of Guerrero. Of course, that’s still true tonight.
Guerrero is on a prolonged heater that I’ll talk about more in a moment. For now, just know that he is 8-for-19 (.421) with two home runs, three doubles and a walk against Bello.
In similar fashion, Springer is 8-for-20 (.400) with a homer and a double against Boston’s starting pitcher.
Dating back to 2022, Springer has scored in five of seven games with Bello on the mound. I really like his chances to keep that up tonight.
Key stat: Springer has cashed his run prop in 23 of 43 games since returning to Toronto’s leadoff spot in early July.
Quick picks
Guerrero over 0.5 RBI (+155): In addition to Guerrero’s .421 BA against Bello, I like the fact that the hitters in front of him have thrived in this matchup, too.
Springer and No. 2 batter Daulton Varsho are collectively 10-for-26 (.385) against the right-hander. And Varsho is on a nice run lately, posting a 1.005 OPS over his past 10 starts.
Between Springer and Varsho, the hope is that there’ll be some traffic on the basepaths when Guerrero digs in. The all-star first baseman should be able to take it from there.
Vladdy has now posted four consecutive multi-hit games. But his remarkable run of production goes back much further than that.
Over his past 56 games, Guerrero has 56 RBI and has cashed this prop 27 times.
Chris Bassitt over 17.5 outs (-112): Bassitt has been shaky overall, but not in this matchup.
In four starts against Boston since last August, the Toronto starter has tossed six-plus innings each time while allowing just seven total runs.
The only Red Sox player who’s crushed him is Rafael Devers, who sat out yesterday due to multiple shoulder injuries. Boston manager Alex Cora reportedly indicated that if Devers “needs two or three (days), we’ll do it.” So there’s a chance he’ll be out again tonight.
Devers’ availability is something to monitor, but either way, Toronto should hope for some length from Bassitt two days removed from a doubleheader.
Picks made at 9:20 a.m. on 08/28/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.