The Los Angeles Dodgers open a four-game series in the desert tonight against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The pregame narrative: Clayton Kershaw and Zac Gallen will be on the mound in a pivotal matchup for the NL West standings. I like Kershaw to clear his outs total and I’m fading Shohei Ohtani at the plate.
Check out my Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks prop picks for Aug. 30.
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks prop picks
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Best Bet: Kershaw over 15.5 outs (-103)
Kershaw had a nightmarish first inning in his most recent start: Four runs, four hits and a walk on 32 pitches.
There’s a silver lining to draw from that disaster, though.
The veteran lefty tossed four solid innings afterward and finished with a season-high 88 pitches. Seeing an uptick in pitch volume after such a rough opening frame bodes well for this outs prop.
There’s always a risk that the Dodgers will treat Kershaw with kid gloves. The 36-year-old had surgery last fall and only made his 2024 debut five weeks ago. With a postseason run to come, there’s no sense overworking the former longtime staff ace.
But this is a very manageable line for Kershaw to clear — even if he’s under close watch.
Kershaw has pitched into the fifth inning in all four August starts and cashed this bet in two of them. He’s also been strong in limited action this year, posting a 2.89 FIP and a .383 opponent SLG.
The other factor to consider is the Dodgers’ bullpen, which has been worked extensively in recent games. Five of L.A.’s eight relievers have pitched in two of the past three days.
This is a great spot for Kershaw to push into the sixth inning and give the Dodgers some length.
Key stat: Kershaw has done well to limit extensive damage. His 3.2% barrel rate, per Baseball Savant, is far better than the league average (7.9%).
Quick picks
Ohtani under 1.5 bases (-120): Fading Ohtani is like playing with fire, but this is one of the rare spots where it’s worth a look.
Ohtani hasn’t figured out Gallen yet. Maybe that happens tonight, but hopefully it doesn’t. The two-time MVP is 0-for-5 with four strikeouts in this matchup.
Since Aug. 6, Ohtani is batting just .214 and has gone under 1.5 bases in nine of 21 games.
Randal Grichuk over 1.5 bases (+100): Grichuk doesn’t start everyday, but I expect him in the lineup in a righty-lefty matchup against Kershaw.
The veteran outfielder has a .308/.358/.543 (139 wRC+) against lefties over the past three seasons. He’s also 7-for-25 with two homers and a triple in previous meetings with Kershaw.
Last night, Grichuk homered against Mets lefty David Peterson. Grichuk has gone over 1.5 bases in five of his past 11 starts.
Picks made at 11:30 a.m. ET 08/30/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.