Jordan Horrobin

Two prominent World Series frontrunners square off tonight as the Baltimore Orioles open a road series against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The pregame narrative: Shohei Ohtani isn’t exactly on a hot streak, but I really like his matchup tonight against Baltimore’s Cole Irvin. Also, Jackson Holliday is having a tough time at the plate again and is worth fading.

Check out my Orioles vs. Dodgers prop picks for Aug. 27.

Orioles vs. Dodgers prop picks

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Best Bet: Ohtani over 1.5 bases (-103)

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Even though Ohtani is slumping right now, he’s still cashing his bases prop at a respectable clip.

Over his past 25 games, Ohtani is batting .192 … but he’s cleared 1.5 bases in 12 of those matchups.

A higher batting average would certainly be nice, but Ohtani’s recent issues have presumably driven down this price to a compelling spot.

And the heavy NL MVP favourite typically doesn’t need multiple hits to clear this mark. He’s as likely as anyone to cash the bet in one swing.

Ohtani ranks in either the 99th or 100th percentile in xSLG, hard-hit rate, barrel rate and average exit velocity, per Baseball Savant. His 41 home runs and 312 total bases both pace the NL.

Tonight, Ohtani faces a familiar foe in Cole Irvin (they saw each other a handful of times in the AL West). Ohtani is 8-for-27 (.296) with five extra-base hits against Irvin, who has struggled mightily this summer.

Since June, Irvin has allowed a .988 opponent OPS in 12 appearances (seven starts).

Key stat: Ohtani is averaging 2.4 bases per game this season and has cashed this bases prop in 71 of 128 games (55.5%).

Quick pick

Holliday under 0.5 hits (-103): Holliday’s rookie season has had more downs than ups, and unfortunately he’s at another low point.

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The preseason No. 1 prospect in baseball went 2-for-34 (.059) in April before being sent back to Triple-A.

He homered in his first MLB game back and enjoyed a nice stretch from July 31 through Aug. 17: .283/.328/.583 slash line, 14 RBI in 16 games.

But the bottom has fallen out since then. Holliday is hitless in his past seven starts, collecting just one walk versus 10 Ks in that span.

A veteran pitcher like L.A.’s Jack Flaherty should be able to keep the 20-year-old quiet.

Flaherty has a .194 opponent BA over his past 12 starts to go with a career-high 11.3 K/9 on the season.

Picks made at 11:30 a.m. ET 08/27/2024.

After pulling off a doubleheader sweep yesterday, the Toronto Blue Jays are back at it against the Boston Red Sox tonight.

The pregame narrative: Toronto has now won five games in a row — or six if you count the June makeup the Jays completed in Boston yesterday as part of a doubleheader. I’m going heavy on Toronto’s offence for today’s picks, featuring props on George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Red Sox on Aug. 27.

Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox

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Best Bet: Springer over 0.5 runs (-120)

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Springer homered in the first game of the doubleheader yesterday, though that technically goes on his record as part of a June 26 makeup game.

Even if we don’t count that homer toward his recent results, Springer is finding plenty of success at the plate these days.

Over his past 10 games, Springer is slugging .591 and has scored six times. That kind of power from the leadoff spot means he’s a credible threat to put himself in scoring position.

And once he’s there, someone — namely, Guerrero — should be equipped to drive him in.

Vladdy, who we’ll discuss more in a moment, crushes righties and he crushes at Fenway Park. Oh, and he seems to be crushing just about everybody right now. So he’s a nice guy to have batting behind Springer in the Blue Jays’ No. 3 spot.

Boston right-hander Cooper Criswell has allowed five hits in 12 at-bats against the Jays’ current lineup. Springer is 1-for-3 with a walk.

Criswell, who has bounced in and out of Boston’s rotation this year, has made eight appearances since July 12. In that span, opponents have a staggering .330/.375/.481 slash line against him.

Key stat: Springer has cashed his run prop in 22 of 42 games since returning to Toronto’s leadoff spot in early July.

Quick picks

Guerrero over 1.5 bases (-127): This is approaching the limit in terms of how much juice I can deal with on a bases prop. But Vladdy has been well worth the price this month.

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In August, Guerrero has cleared 1.5 bases in 14 of 22 games while posting a 1.192 OPS. He has multiple hits in three straight matchups.

Vladdy is hitting better against lefties this year than ever before, but he’s doing just fine in righty-righty matchups, too. Against RHPs this year, he has a .930 OPS — his best single-season mark aside from that magical 2021 campaign.

Historically, he loves to play in Boston. Guerrero’s 1.058 OPS (43 games) at Fenway is his highest at any MLB park in which he’s played seven or more games.

If you’re looking for a Guerrero prop at a more enticing price, consider him to score a run (-109) or record an RBI (+135).

Blue Jays over 4.5 runs (-105): This pick is a natural tie-in to me backing a pair of Jays sluggers to produce.

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But the team’s recent production goes a lot deeper than two players.

Over the past two weeks, Toronto leads MLB in home runs (24), SLG (.504) and wRC+ (131). Guerrero and Springer are two of the headliners within that group, but others like Joey Loperfido and Alejandro Kirk are chipping in, too.

The Jays have gone over 4.5 runs in six of their past seven games. Against a guy like Criswell who’s been far from lights out, I think the offence can stay hot.

Picks made at 9:50 a.m. on 08/27/24.

Tonight’s matchup between the New York Mets and San Diego Padres is a big one in the NL playoff race. And I’m targeting a bunch of big names.

The pregame narrative: Dylan Cease is rolling right now, but I think the Mets can put a stop to that. I’m backing Francisco Lindor and J.D. Martinez to do damage for New York, and I’m fading Cease’s strikeouts prop in a parlay with Mets starter Luis Severino.

Check out my Mets vs. Padres prop picks for Aug. 22.

Mets vs. Padres prop picks

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Best Bet: Lindor over 0.5 runs (+120)

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Lindor is way too hot right now to have a price like this on his run prop.

The Mets’ leadoff man has nine multi-hit games in his past 14, and he owns a .910 OPS in 19 games this month.

His 158 wRC+ in August is 28th among 184 qualified hitters.

These numbers alone make him a compelling candidate to score a run at plus-money odds, and his status as the leadoff hitter only adds to that. Lindor has plenty of capable bats behind him (including Martinez, who I’ll discuss further in a second).

In 63 plate appearances, the Mets have a .367 wOBA and a .519 SLG against Dylan Cease.

Individually, Lindor is 3-for-9 against Cease … and all three of those hits left the yard.

Key stat: Lindor has a .379 on-base percentage this month and has cashed his runs prop in 12 of 19 games.

Quick picks

Martinez over 1.5 bases (+200): Martinez is only batting .197 this month, but he deserves far better results than that.

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Since the start of August, Martinez has a .274 xBA, per Baseball Savant, as well as a 52% hard-hit rate. Over the course of a full season, that would be a 94th-percentile hard-hit rate.

In other words, Martinez is crushing the ball and could easily cash this bet with one swing. He’s done that in two of his past three games, in fact, homering on Monday and Tuesday.

Martinez is 4-for-8 with a double and three walks against Cease.

Parlay: Cease under 8.5 Ks, Severino over 3.5 Ks (+128): Given that I’m backing a pair of Mets hitters, it makes sense to also find a way to fade Cease.

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The right-hander has gone under 8.5 Ks in 19 of 26 starts and is averaging just 7.2 Ks per start this year. He finished with five strikeouts when he faced the Mets a couple of months ago.

New York has a 21.9% K rate, which is below league-average.

And given that the Mets have hit Cease well in the past — he coughed up seven runs over 3.2 innings against them in June — he could simply hit this under by being chased early from the game.

For Severino, this line should be more than manageable. It’s too much juice for me to tout it as a solo wager, but I certainly like it in a plus-money combo.

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Yes, the Padres have the lowest K rate in the majors (17.6%). But Severino has cashed this bet in six of his past seven outings and is averaging 4.9 Ks per start this year.

Last season, Severino fanned five Padres hitters over 6.2 innings. And he has 18 Ks in 53 plate appearances against the current Padres squad (34.0% K rate).

Picks made at 1:20 p.m. ET 08/21/2024.

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With Gerrit Cole on the mound, the New York Yankees host the Cleveland Guardians on Thursday afternoon to conclude their season series.

The pregame narrative: I’m going with a hitter-only menu of prop bets today, and two of them are on Aaron Judge. From Cleveland’s side, I like Jose Ramirez’s bases prop in a matchup he knows quite well.

Check out my Guardians vs. Yankees prop picks for Aug. 22.

Guardians vs. Yankees prop picks

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Best Bet: Judge over 0.5 runs (-124)

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What can you say about a hitter who does it all?

Judge is rightfully well ahead of the field in the AL MVP race, posting the highest single-season OPS (1.187) since Barry Bonds’ otherworldly season in 2004.

The Yankee captain bats third, which isn’t the best play to score from. But his MLB-leading 47 home runs mean he can drive himself in at any moment, and his MLB-leading .465 on-base percentage means he’s giving his teammates plenty of chances to do the same.

Balking at the -124 price? You shouldn’t. Judge has scored in 71 of 125 games (56.8%), and the implied probability of -124 odds is 55.4%.

Gavin Williams (2-5, 5.02) is a starting pitcher that Judge and the rest of the Yankees should be able to do damage against. Williams has allowed a .767 OPS this season, and his .269 xBA ranks in the 17th percentile, per Baseball Savant.

Judge, meanwhile, ranks in the 100th percentile in xwOBA, xSLG, barrel rate, walk rate and hard-hit rate. He has scored in five straight games at Yankee Stadium and is 4-for-8 with three home runs in this series.

Key stat: Judge has scored 23 runs in his past 23 games, posting a .578 on-base percentage in that span.

Quick pick

Judge over 1.5 bases (+100): I considered making this my best bet, but Judge’s league-high walk rate gave me some pause. Still, Judge has been an animal on his bases prop this season.

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The six-time all-star has cashed the over on 1.5 bases in 67 of 125 games (53.6%), including in 16 of his past 23 games. He’s slugging .933 this month, which feels like it should be a typo — but it isn’t.

Williams pumps upper-90s fastballs, which seems perfectly fine with Judge. On fastballs thrown 97 mph or above (which is Williams’ typical range), Judge has a .406/.486/.844 slash line in 38 plate appearances.

Ramirez over 1.5 bases (+123): Ramirez only has two hits in his past six games, so you might say this isn’t the best time to back him. But he’s still on a great run overall.

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Since July 29, Ramirez has a .288/.344/.650 slash line with 13 extra-base hits in 21 games.

Additionally, he has strong numbers against Cole. Ramirez is 12-for-33 (.364) with six extra-base hits and five walks against the New York right-hander.

Last year, Ramirez cashed this bet in both matchups against Cole.

Picks made at 11:50 a.m. ET 08/21/2024.

For the third and final time, the Los Angeles Dodgers host the Seattle Mariners tonight in interleague play.

The pregame narrative: Logan Gilbert and Jack Flaherty combine for a compelling matchup on the mound, and I’m backing both of them in the prop market. Flaherty is part of a plus-money parlay with Freddie Freeman.

Check out my Mariners vs. Dodgers prop picks for Aug. 21.

Mariners vs. Dodgers prop picks

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Best Bet: Gilbert over 5.5 Ks (-125)

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As long as he doesn’t suffer an early-inning blowup, Gilbert should be relied upon to cash this strikeout prop.

Since the start of July, Gilbert has gone over 5.5 Ks in seven of eight starts. The exception was a disastrous outing against the Red Sox in which he allowed seven runs on seven hits over 2.2 innings.

Gilbert has one of the lowest walk rates in the majors (4.7%, 94th percentile). That’s a good way to keep his pitch count in check and ensure he can work deep into games.

He also has the stuff to go right after guys, playing off his mid-90s fastball with three pitches that have a whiff rate of 33.3% or higher. For context, the league-average whiff rate is 25.1%.

The Dodgers aren’t a plus matchup for strikeout props, but they aren’t a bad one, either. They rank 15th in MLB in K rate against right-handed pitchers.

And Gilbert just so happens to have some strong numbers against the current L.A. lineup. He’s collected 15 Ks versus just 10 hits allowed in 54 plate appearances.

Last year, Gilbert struck out six batters over 5.0 innings in his lone outing against the Dodgers.

Key stat: Gilbert has gone over 5.5 Ks in 18 of 25 starts. He’s averaging 6.2 strikeouts per outing this year.

Quick picks

Parlay: Flaherty 7+ Ks, Freeman 1+ hits (+104): I’m a little hesitant to ride with Flaherty on his standard strikeout line, so I’m teasing it down a bit in a plus-money combo wager.

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Flaherty is having a stellar season that includes a career-high 11.5 K/9. He has seven or more strikeouts in all three starts since becoming a Dodger.

The Mariners have the highest K rate in the majors, and Flaherty has already torched them in the past. Seattle’s current lineup has struck out 23 times in just 59 plate appearances against him (39.0% K rate).

One hit from Freeman boosts this play up from -210 to its current price.

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Freeman, who’s batting .313 against righties this year, has the platoon advantage over Gilbert. They’ve never gone head-to-head before, but one hit should be a reasonable ask for the eight-time all-star.

In August, Freeman is 17-for-55 (.309) and has cashed this bet in 11 of 14 games.

Picks made at 1:20 p.m. ET 08/21/2024.

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The Toronto Blue Jays and Cincinnati Reds play a rubber match at Rogers Centre this evening.

The pregame narrative: George Springer starred in last night’s offensive outburst for Toronto and I think he can make some noise again on Wednesday. But I’m fading the Jays on the moneyline in a pick ’em.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Reds on Aug. 21.

Blue Jays picks vs. Reds

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Best Bet: Springer over 0.5 runs (-113)

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Pretty much any Blue Jays hitting prop was good on Tuesday as the team romped to a 10-3 victory over the Reds. The headliner of that performance was Springer, who clubbed a pair of home runs into the left field corner.

Springer is having a career-worst year by a lot of metrics, but he’s turned things around quite a bit since late June.

Entering play on June 25, Springer was batting .188 with a .559 OPS. Since then, he has a .271 BA and an .860 OPS in 47 games.

Just as importantly, he reclaimed the Jays’ leadoff spot several weeks ago and hasn’t given it up. Now he has the most plate appearances possible and bats ahead of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — two big pluses for a scoring prop.

Toronto’s lineup as a whole hasn’t seen much of Reds starter Nick Martinez, but Springer is an outlier in that regard. He’s 5-for-15 with a home run and a walk against Martinez.

Key stat: Springer has scored seven runs over his past 12 games. He only has a .212 BA in that span, but his .264 xBA — per Baseball Savant — suggests a reasonably high quality of contact.

Quick pick

Reds moneyline (-109): This is a textbook coin flip game between two non-playoff teams deploying so-so starting pitchers. But I feel better about where Martinez is at right now, so I’m siding with the Reds.

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After a failed stint in the Reds’ rotation earlier this year, Martinez spent most of the spring and summer working out of the bullpen. In doing so, he earned his way back into a starting role.

In 69.0 innings since May 4, Martinez has a 2.35 ERA and a .606 opponent OPS. Toronto starter Yariel Rodriguez, meanwhile, has a 3.93 ERA and a .696 opponent OPS in 55.0 IP on the season.

Martinez returned to the rotation earlier this month and tossed back-to-back scoreless outings on the road. He’s not a big name, but he’s been solid.

The Blue Jays are just 5-8 in Rodriguez’s starts, losing five of the past six.

Picks made at 11:20 a.m. on 08/21/24.

Justin Verlander returns to the Houston Astros’ rotation today for an afternoon matchup against the Boston Red Sox.

The pregame narrative: After two months on the injured list with neck discomfort, Verlander is back on the mound to try to help Houston win this three-game set. My best bet is a plus-money parlay involving Verlander and Alex Bregman.

Check out my Red Sox vs. Astros prop picks for Aug. 21.

Red Sox vs. Astros prop picks

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Best Bet: Verlander 5+ Ks, Bregman 1+ hits (+106)

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You never know exactly what you’re going to get from a pitcher coming off an extended absence, but I think Verlander is well-positioned to clear this strikeout total today.

For one thing, the Red Sox are one of the most strikeout-friendly teams in baseball. They have the league’s third-highest K rate (24.9%) and the fifth-highest whiff rate (27.6%).

Each of Boston’s past six opposing starters recorded at least five strikeouts.

Verlander, who’s averaging 5.1 Ks per start this year, should add to that. I don’t want to overvalue minor league stats, but he was sharp in a pair of rehab appearances this month: 7.0 IP, two runs, eight Ks.

The -175 juice on Verlander’s strikeout prop is a lot, so I’ve added another leg to get this bet into plus-money territory.

Bregman attacks right-handed pitching well and should be counted on for a hit today.

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This season, Bregman is batting .279 with a 127 wRC+ against RHPs. He went 0-for-4 last night but had an eight-game hit streak right before that.

Cooper Criswell, who has bounced in and out of Boston’s rotation, has allowed a .348 opponent batting average over his past seven appearances.

Key stat: Verlander has nine strikeouts in 25 plate appearances against the current Red Sox lineup (36.0%).

Quick picks

Yainer Diaz over 0.5 RBI (+140): If Houston is able to feast on a struggling Criswell, Diaz should be right at the centre of it.

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The third-year catcher has three straight games with a home run and four straight with multiple hits. He has 12 RBI over his past 11 games and has cashed this prop eight times in that span.

Diaz bats in the No. 3 or 4 spot for Houston, which is a great spot to be in a front-loaded lineup.

Picks made at 11:50 a.m. ET 08/21/2024.