With Gerrit Cole on the mound, the New York Yankees host the Cleveland Guardians on Thursday afternoon to conclude their season series.
The pregame narrative: I’m going with a hitter-only menu of prop bets today, and two of them are on Aaron Judge. From Cleveland’s side, I like Jose Ramirez’s bases prop in a matchup he knows quite well.
Check out my Guardians vs. Yankees prop picks for Aug. 22.
Guardians vs. Yankees prop picks
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Best Bet: Judge over 0.5 runs (-124)
What can you say about a hitter who does it all?
Judge is rightfully well ahead of the field in the AL MVP race, posting the highest single-season OPS (1.187) since Barry Bonds’ otherworldly season in 2004.
The Yankee captain bats third, which isn’t the best play to score from. But his MLB-leading 47 home runs mean he can drive himself in at any moment, and his MLB-leading .465 on-base percentage means he’s giving his teammates plenty of chances to do the same.
Balking at the -124 price? You shouldn’t. Judge has scored in 71 of 125 games (56.8%), and the implied probability of -124 odds is 55.4%.
Gavin Williams (2-5, 5.02) is a starting pitcher that Judge and the rest of the Yankees should be able to do damage against. Williams has allowed a .767 OPS this season, and his .269 xBA ranks in the 17th percentile, per Baseball Savant.
Judge, meanwhile, ranks in the 100th percentile in xwOBA, xSLG, barrel rate, walk rate and hard-hit rate. He has scored in five straight games at Yankee Stadium and is 4-for-8 with three home runs in this series.
Key stat: Judge has scored 23 runs in his past 23 games, posting a .578 on-base percentage in that span.
Quick pick
Judge over 1.5 bases (+100): I considered making this my best bet, but Judge’s league-high walk rate gave me some pause. Still, Judge has been an animal on his bases prop this season.
The six-time all-star has cashed the over on 1.5 bases in 67 of 125 games (53.6%), including in 16 of his past 23 games. He’s slugging .933 this month, which feels like it should be a typo — but it isn’t.
Williams pumps upper-90s fastballs, which seems perfectly fine with Judge. On fastballs thrown 97 mph or above (which is Williams’ typical range), Judge has a .406/.486/.844 slash line in 38 plate appearances.
Ramirez over 1.5 bases (+123): Ramirez only has two hits in his past six games, so you might say this isn’t the best time to back him. But he’s still on a great run overall.
Since July 29, Ramirez has a .288/.344/.650 slash line with 13 extra-base hits in 21 games.
Additionally, he has strong numbers against Cole. Ramirez is 12-for-33 (.364) with six extra-base hits and five walks against the New York right-hander.
Last year, Ramirez cashed this bet in both matchups against Cole.
Picks made at 11:50 a.m. ET 08/21/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.