Jordan Horrobin

I’m fading a pair of notable Los Angeles Dodgers tonight in their home matchup against the Seattle Mariners.

The pregame narrative: Seattle starter Bryce Miller has been cruising lately, and I think he has what it takes to quiet Shohei Ohtani tonight. I’m also taking the under on Walker Buehler’s strikeout total despite the Mariners’ high-strikeout tendencies.

Check out my Mariners vs. Dodgers prop picks for Aug. 20.

Mariners vs. Dodgers prop picks

MLB Markets: Click Here | MLB Stats: Click Here

Best Bet: Ohtani under 1.5 bases (+106)

Embed: #92131

I’m not going to spend too much time critiquing Ohtani, a two-time MVP who is well on his way to a third. But have you noticed his subtle slump in recent weeks?

Over his past 20 games, Ohtani is batting 13-for-83 (.157) with 21 strikeouts.

A flurry of home runs has propped up his overall production in that span, but I don’t expect Ohtani to leave the yard tonight. Miller has only allowed five home runs over his past 14 starts (0.56 HR/9)

The Seattle starter has really trended upward since the calendar flipped to July. From then onward, he has a 1.91 ERA and a .553 opponent OPS through seven outings. In four of those starts, he tossed six-plus innings of shutout ball.

Ohtani may be well ahead of the field in the NL MVP race, but he’s not immune to performance dips. He’s in one of those right now and Miller isn’t likely to make it any easier.

Against left-handed batters (like Ohtani), Miller throws either his four-seamer or splitter nearly 70% of the time. Both pitches have garnered sub-.200 batting averages, per Baseball Savant.

Key stat: Ohtani has gone under 1.5 bases in 11 of his past 20 games.

Quick picks

Victor Robles over 0.5 runs (+128): I highlighted this bet yesterday at this very price and Robles let me down. Time to see if it’s a fool me once or fool me twice situation.

Embed: #92133

Robles, admittedly, has cooled down considerably after a hot start with Seattle. He’s batting .172 in 16 games this month.

But he’s still batting leadoff for the Mariners, which maximizes his opportunity to score. He’s also 3-for-10 with a triple in his career against Buehler

Speaking of Buehler (1-4, 6.02 ERA), this has been quite a bumpy season for the Dodgers starter. In an injury-riddled campaign, Buehler has allowed three or more runs in eight of nine outings.

On Aug. 14, Buehler returned from an injured list stint in underwhelming fashion: 3.1 innings, four hits, four walks, four runs.

Buehler under 4.5 Ks (+130): The Mariners have the highest K rate in the majors against right-handed pitchers (28.5%). That certainly makes this a daunting time to go with an under.

Embed: #92132

But Buehler is really struggling this year and I don’t trust that he’ll be able to mow down Seattle hitters tonight. The L.A. starter has gone under this line in seven of nine starts (including his return from the IL last week).

We’re three seasons and one major elbow surgery removed from seeing Buehler at the peak of his powers. This year, he’s posting career-worsts in everything — including a 7.6 K/9 and a 6.28 FIP.

Buehler’s whiff rate (16.7%) is the lowest in the majors, and his 23.1% chase rate isn’t much better (sixth percentile). Numbers like that make him easier to fade in even the best matchups.

Picks made at 11:50 a.m. ET 08/20/2024.

Looking to get started? Sign up here.

The Toronto Blue Jays are back in action at Rogers Centre tonight to face the Cincinnati Reds in the middle of their three-game series.

The pregame narrative: Last night’s game didn’t go according to plan for Toronto, but tonight is another opportunity for some players to shine on an individual level. Read why I’m backing Daulton Varsho and Jose Berrios on the prop market.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Reds on Aug. 20.

Blue Jays picks vs. Reds

MLB markets: Click Here | MLB stats: Click Here

Best Bet: Varsho over 0.5 runs (+100)

Embed: #92092

In a lineup constantly searching for productive bats to surround Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Varsho has stepped up.

The speedy outfielder has a .286/.385/.429 slash line in 15 games this month, tallying nine runs in that span. On Aug. 8, he earned a promotion to the No. 2 spot in the lineup — a premium position for scoring.

You see, Guerrero bats in the No. 3 spot, and he’s been raking for quite some time. With another home run last night, he’s up to 26 extra-base hits and a 1.369 OPS since the all-star break.

So if Varsho can get on base — as he’s done eight times in the past four games — he should have a solid chance to score.

The Blue Jays didn’t do much against a pitcher making his MLB debut last night, but tonight is another prime opportunity to get the bats going.

Carson Spiers (4-4, 4.55 ERA) has been knocked around quite a bit since the start of July. Over his past 28.0 innings, he’s allowed 42 baserunners and 20 runs.

The left-handed Varsho is arguably better against southpaws, but I think Spiers is a righty that anyone can do damage against right now. And from Spiers’ side of things, lefty hitters are a known weakness.

Key stat: Since Spiers debuted in MLB last year, left-handed batters have a .313/.358/.512 slash line against him.

Quick pick

Berrios over 5.5 Ks (+102): This is a worthwhile spot to take the plunge with Berrios, who has hovered around this strikeout total in several recent starts.

Embed: #92113

Berrios has gone five consecutive outings with at least five Ks, clearing this total twice. And he has a great matchup tonight to hit the over again.

Cincinnati has the fourth-highest K rate against righties (25.1%). Berrios, fittingly, has a 25.0% K rate against the Reds’ current lineup (13 strikeouts in 52 plate appearances).

The other teams in the top five for K rate versus righties are the Mariners, Rockies, A’s and Braves. Berrios has had four matchups against those teams this season and has cashed this bet each time.

Picks made at 9:50 a.m. on 08/20/24.

After a 4-2 road trip, the Toronto Blue Jays are back at home to face the Cincinnati Reds.

The pregame narrative: Julian Aguiar makes his MLB debut on the mound for the Reds, while Kevin Gausman gets the ball for the Jays. I’m backing Toronto to get off to a solid start and for Gausman to have some staying power.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Reds on Aug. 19.

Blue Jays picks vs. Reds

MLB markets: Click Here | MLB stats: Click Here

Best Bet: Blue Jays -0.5 – first five innings (-122)

Embed: #92065

It’s been a lost season for the Blue Jays, and Gausman’s step back is certainly part of that. After a third-place finish in AL Cy Young voting a year ago, Gausman is having his worst season since before the pandemic.

But it’s not too late for the veteran right-hander to finish on a high note — and things are trending in that direction.

Since July, Gausman has a 3.17 ERA and a .212 opponent batting average. He only has 12 quality starts on the year, but five of them have come in his past seven outings.

Quality starts (i.e., six-plus innings and three or fewer earned runs allowed) give teams a chance to win. Or at least to succeed through the first half of a game. Gausman’s recent steadiness is one reason why I like Toronto on the F5 line.

Another reason is that the Reds have a thoroughly underwhelming offence. They rank 26th in the league in wRC+ (90) and scored just three total runs in their three-game weekend series against Kansas City.

Lastly, I feel good about fading the Reds in Aguiar’s MLB debut. The 12th-round pick from 2021 is up in the bigs because of attrition, not opportunity. Cincinnati simply needs a built-up starter to take the ball.

Over his past five outings in Triple-A, Aguiar has allowed 18 runs on 29 hits in just 27.0 IP.

Toronto’s lineup may perform like a minor-league squad sometimes, but I think this group should be able to do some damage tonight.

Key stat: Toronto is 5-1-1 on the F5 moneyline in Gausman’s past seven starts.

Quick pick

Gausman over 18.5 outs (+107): I’m not sure if it’s a coincidence or an emerging trend, but Gausman has pitched to contact far more often in recent games. As a result, he’s been able to work deeper.

Embed: #92037

Last year, Gausman led the American League in strikeouts (237) and K/9 (11.5). This year, his 8.1 K/9 is his lowest in a decade. That may not be ideal for Gausman as a pitcher, but it can be helpful for his pitch count.

Over his past six starts, Gausman has cashed this prop five times while pitching to a paltry 5.3 K/9.

The Reds’ offence went ice cold in its most recent series, and if that continues, Gausman could have an even easier time collecting quick outs. Also, two of Toronto’s top three leverage relievers (Chad Green, Genesis Cabrera) have pitched in two of the past three days.

Picks made at 12:27 p.m. on 08/19/24.

The Seattle Mariners continue their three-city road trip tonight with a series opener against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The pregame narrative: Gavin Stone has struggled lately, so I’m backing a pair of Mariners hitters against him. For my best bet, I like Mookie Betts to collect multiple bases at plus money.

Check out my Mariners vs. Dodgers prop picks for Aug. 19.

Mariners vs. Dodgers prop picks

MLB Markets: Click Here | MLB Stats: Click Here

Best Bet: Betts over 1.5 bases (+116)

Embed: #92042

Seattle’s Bryan Woo is a tough pitcher to do damage against, but he tends to force hitters to put the ball in play. Naturally, that’s a trait I like when targeting bases props.

Woo has just a 2.5% walk rate (99th percentile) and a 19.6% K rate. His four-seamer/sinker/sweeper combo typically puts right-handed hitters in knots, but I don’t expect that to be the case for Betts.

Since the start of last year, Betts has a .317/.428/.555 slash line against those pitch types, per Baseball Savant.

His contact quality backs up the production, too. Betts has a .551 xSLG against four-seamers/sinkers/sweepers in that span.

Betts missed almost two full months with a fractured hand, knocking himself out of the NL MVP race. Fortunately, he’s returned to MVP-calibre form since slotting back into the Dodgers’ lineup last Monday.

The six-time Silver Slugger has multiple hits in five of six starts since returning from the injured list.

Key stat: Betts has a .521 SLG in his career against right-handed pitchers.

Quick picks

Jorge Polanco over 0.5 hits (-127): Polanco is hot and Dodgers starter Gavin Stone is not.

Embed: #92053

Seattle’s veteran infielder has had a trying year and is batting just .219 — almost 50 points below his career average. But his recent results paint a more positive picture.

Over his past 19 games, Polanco is 20-for-69 (.290) and has cashed this bet 13 times. He typically bats in the No. 4 or 5 spot, so it’s not as if the Mariners are burying him in the lineup.

Polanco has never faced Stone but seems to be catching him at a good time. Since the start of July, Stone has allowed 48 hits over 32.1 innings, good for a .340 opponent BA.

Victor Robles over 0.5 runs (+128): Robles has only been with the Mariners for two and a half months, but he’s already enjoyed quite a wild ride.

Embed: #92052

In early June, three days after being released by the Nationals, Robles signed with the Mariners and started turning his season around. His OPS has gone from .401 to .702 since he joined Seattle.

Robles was bumped up to the leadoff spot by late July, and just last week he inked a two-year, $9.75 million contract extension. Overall, things are really looking up for the outfielder.

August hasn’t been quick as kind to Robles, contract aside. He’s batting just .183 through 15 games.

But Robles is still atop the Mariners’ lineup, which means something against a struggling Stone. This righty-righty matchup also looks great for Robles:

• Stone vs. RHHs: .284/.308/.447 slash line (.755 opponent OPS)
• Robles vs. RHPs: .276/.346/.429 slash line (.774 OPS)

Picks made at 12:00 p.m. ET 08/19/2024.

Looking to get started? Sign up here.

At a special venue in Williamsport, Pennsylvania, the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees are set for the Little League Classic in prime time on Sunday.

The pregame narrative: Tarik Skubal is barrelling toward an AL Cy Young victory, and he’ll look to add to his resume tonight after carving up the Yankees back in May. I’ve got prop bets on the two biggest stars of this game: Skubal and AL MVP favourite Aaron Judge.

Check out my Yankees vs. Tigers picks for Sunday Night Baseball on Aug. 18.

Yankees vs. Tigers picks

MLB markets: Click Here | MLB stats: Click Here

Best Bet: Skubal over 7.5 Ks (+112)

Embed: #91949

The Yankees strike out at a below-league-average rate, but this pick isn’t really about them. It’s about Skubal.

The heavy AL Cy Young favourite is bulldozing his opponents these days, cashing this prop in six of his past seven outings. In that span, Skubal has averaged 8.7 Ks per start.

Skubal’s workload has been steady all season, which always makes an over more enticing. Of his 24 starts, he’s completed six-plus innings 21 times.

That includes a gem at Yankee Stadium in early May: 6.0 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 12 K, 0 BB.

Yes, he fanned a dozen Yankees the last time he faced them without issuing a single free pass. That’s dominant stuff.

Skubal doesn’t like to play with his food. His 4.9% walk rate (91st percentile) and 30.5% K rate (92nd percentile) make that very clear.

He plays off his upper-90s fastball with a devastating changeup that garners a 48.0% whiff rate, per Baseball Savant. The Yankees fanned on that changeup in 12 of 17 swings back in May.

Given that Skubal has cleared this Ks total routinely in recent outings — and he was dominant earlier this year against the Yankees — the plus-money price here feels like a bargain.

Key stat: Skubal has 23 Ks in 69 plate appearances against the current Yankees lineup (33.3% K rate).

Quick picks

Judge over 1.5 bases (-108): It takes a Cy Young favourite to put Judge’s bases prop in a reasonable price range. At this number, I’m happy to buy in against pretty much any arm.

Embed: #91954

Judge, who’s hovering toward lock territory as the AL MVP favourite, has a staggering 1.172 OPS. He’s on pace for the highest single-season OPS (excluding the COVID-shortened year) since Barry Bonds in 2004.

Walks are the primary risk for Judge to not hit this mark. But as mentioned, Skubal doesn’t walk many batters.

Judge has cashed this bet in six straight games as well as 14 of his past 20. And he’s 5-for-11 with two doubles and two home runs against Skubal.

Picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET 08/18/2024.

Shota Imanaga and the Chicago Cubs look to finish off a three-game sweep over the Toronto Blue Jays at Wrigley Field on Sunday afternoon.

The pregame narrative: Toronto will see Imanaga for the first time today, and I like the plus-money odds on his strikeout prop. I’m also betting the over on bases props for two sluggers, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Seiya Suzuki.

Check out the best Blue Jays props vs. the Cubs on Aug. 18.

Blue Jays props vs. Cubs

MLB markets: Click Here | MLB stats: Click Here

Best bet: Imanaga over 5.5 Ks (+110)

Embed: #91922

For most of the season, the Blue Jays have been one of the toughest strikeout matchups in the majors. In fact, they still have the seventh-lowest K rate (20.4%).

But given Toronto’s roster upheaval at the trade deadline, it isn’t totally fair to grade this team on its season-long numbers. Since the calendar flipped to August, high-strikeout guys like Leo Jimenez, Addison Barger and Joey Loperfido have drawn into the lineup regularly.

So far this month, Toronto has the 12th-highest K rate (24.0%). Not such a bad matchup after all.

Now that that’s established, let’s talk about Imanaga. The former NPB star averages more than a strikeout per inning (9.2 K/9) and he has worked into the sixth inning or later in 16 of 22 starts.

That alone provides a nice baseline for this wager. As does the fact that no one on the Jays has faced him before, which I think works in the pitcher’s favour.

Imanaga has an elite swing-and-miss for lefties (sweeper) and righties (split-finger). Both pitches have a K rate and whiff rate above 35.0%, per Baseball Savant.

What Imanaga does best is garner out-of-zone swings. He ranks in the 98th percentile in chase rate (35.5%). Ideally, those chase pitches either lead to foul balls that put the count in his favour or whiffs that result in a strikeout.

In August, Toronto has the seventh-highest whiff rate in the majors (29.9%).

Key stat: Imanaga has gone over 5.5 Ks in 13 of his past 18 starts.

Quick picks

Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+110): Even if Imanaga piles up punchouts against Toronto, I cannot ignore a plus-money bases prop for Guerrero.

Embed: #91931

Since the all-star break, Guerrero has an MLB-high .893 slugging percentage. For context, there are only 12 hitters with an OPS higher than that this season.

After ripping a double at Wrigley yesterday, Guerrero has cashed this bases prop in 20 of his past 28 games.

Imanaga has the lowest walk rate in the NL (1.3 BB/9), which bodes well for Guerrero’s chances to reach base with a hit. And Imanaga has been hittable, allowing a .790 opponent OPS over his past nine starts.

Suzuki over 1.5 bases (+130): Suzuki turns 30 today, and while that doesn’t factor into my prediction I do hope he celebrates with a productive day at the plate.

Embed: #91932

The outfielder only has a .507 SLG over his past 20 games and should match up well against Bowden Francis, who struggles in righty-on-righty matchups.

Francis has allowed righties to post a .518 SLG against him this year (compared to a .404 SLG from lefties).

Suzuki has fared well against RHPs on the season, posting a .269/.333/.483 slash line (good for a 127 wRC+).

Picks made at 9:25 a.m. on 08/18/24.

In the final game of the night, the Los Angeles Angels host Chris Sale and the Atlanta Braves.

The pregame narrative: I’m fading Sale tonight against an Angels squad that rarely racks up strikeouts against left-handed starters. My other prop bets involve Marcell Ozuna, Michael Harris II and Zach Neto.

Check out my Braves vs. Angels prop picks for Aug. 17.

Braves vs. Angels prop picks

MLB Markets: Click Here | MLB Stats: Click Here

Best Bet: Ozuna over 1.5 bases (-113)

Embed: #91873

Griffin Canning is going through it right now, and I think Ozuna is as well-positioned as anyone to pounce on the Angels starter.

Canning has allowed a .294/.360/.493 slash line to opponents in seven starts since the beginning of July. According to Baseball Savant, he ranks in the bottom 25 percentile in xERA, xBA, K rate and average exit velocity.

Enter Ozuna, who’s having a stellar season within an otherwise underperforming Braves lineup.

The all-star designated hitter leads the NL in RBI (90) and has a .954 OPS — his highest OPS aside from the COVID-shortened 2020 season.

Ozuna ranks in the 94th percentile or better in xBA, xSLG, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. He’s a certified masher.

From the No. 3 spot, Ozuna should have a fair shot to cash his RBI prop (+128). But a lack of production from the hitters ahead of him has led to six straight games without an RBI, so I’m opting for a prop that is totally within his control.

Ozuna is 2-for-3 with a home run against Canning.

Key stat: In his past 10 games, Ozuna has cashed this prop seven times while posting a 1.056 OPS.

Quick picks

Sale under 7.5 Ks (-112): Sale is the odds-on NL Cy Young favourite, so if you don’t want to fade him right now I totally understand. This is a perfectly attainable strikeout total for the NL’s K/9 leader (11.8).

Embed: #91883

So why, after Sale’s back-to-back performances with 10-plus Ks, am I fading him?

Because the Angels pose a concerning matchup. It’s not that they excel against lefties (100 wRC+ vs. LHPs this year), but they tend to keep their strikeouts to a minimum.

L.A. has a 19.7% K rate against southpaws this year, which is the sixth-lowest in MLB. And only four of the past 40 (!) starters to face the Angels have cleared this total.

Sale collects eight-plus Ks more often than not, but I’m not buying it in this matchup. He’s only faced two active Angels hitters, and I expect the new faces to get the bat on the ball.

Parlay: Harris, Neto 1+ hits each (+114): Michael Harris has recorded a hit in all three games since returning from the injured list and should be able to keep that up tonight.

Embed: #91885

Harris, the 2022 NL Rookie of the Year, bats leadoff for the Braves and is relied upon to rake in lefty-right matchups. He owns a .291 BA against righties in his career.

On the flip side, Canning has allowed a .278 BA and an .861 OPS against lefties this season.

To turn this into a plus-money wager, I’m looking for Neto to also exploit a platoon advantage.

Embed: #91884

The L.A. shortstop is 16-for-45 (.356) in his past 11 games. He’s never faced Sale, but his track record against southpaws is impressive.

Neto has a .410/.459/.603 slash line against lefties this year.

Picks made at 1:40 p.m. ET 08/17/2024.

The Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago Cubs play the second of three afternoon games at Wrigley Field on Saturday.

The pregame narrative: Chris Bassitt has struggled quite a bit recently, but he’s still finding ways to get strikeouts. I’m backing Bassitt alongside Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Nico Hoerner in a trio of plus-money prop bets.

Check out the best Blue Jays props vs. the Cubs on Aug. 17.

Blue Jays props vs. Cubs

MLB markets: Click Here | MLB stats: Click Here

Best bet: Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+112)

Embed: #91822

New day, another Vladdy prop bet.

Even after Friday’s 0-for-5 showing, how could you not at least consider this bases prop on the better side of even money?

Guerrero, who recently ripped off a 22-game hit streak, has a 1.437 OPS since July 14. In that span, he’s gone over 1.5 bases in 19 of 27 games.

Unsurprisingly, Guerrero has boosted his season-long stats during this extended hot streak, too. He had a .799 OPS at the end of play on July 13, and now he’s up to a .940 OPS on the year.

But his numbers against lefties are even better.

Guerrero has the fourth-highest OPS versus southpaws this season (1.065 OPS), and he’ll face another one today in Cubs starter Justin Steele.

It’s been another solid season for Steele, who owns a 3.16 ERA through 19 starts. But Vladdy is still on an epic tear and looks like a bargain against any lefty at this price.

Key stat: Steele has allowed a .282 batting average and a .733 OPS over his past five starts.

Quick picks

Bassitt over 5.5 Ks (+123): Last time out, Bassitt had one of his most brutal outings of the season and still finished just one strikeout shy of this mark.

Embed: #91827

Against the A’s last Sunday, Bassitt gritted through a 41-pitch first inning and ended up striking out five over 4.0 frames. Now he’s on an extra day of rest with the hopes of resetting against the Cubs.

In his career, Bassitt’s K/9 is at its highest when he’s pitching on five days’ rest (8.6 K/9).

After a slow start to the year in the strikeout department, Bassitt has put up respectable numbers since late May. He’s cashed this bet in nine of his past 14 outings, averaging 5.7 Ks per start.

Hoerner over 0.5 runs (+125): This bet looked a bit more desirable when Hoerner was slotting into the lineup as a leadoff man, but he’s actually been scoring at a high clip from the No. 6 spot.

Embed: #91826

Hoerner has scored in 10 of his past 14 games and is batting .293 in that span.

Though I’m keen on Bassitt to hit a decent strikeout total, I think it could get messy along the way. Toronto’s right-hander has a 7.12 ERA over his past seven starts.

Hoerner doubled and scored off Bassitt when they faced last season in Toronto.

Picks made at 9:25 a.m. on 08/17/24.