Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

Patrick Mahomes NFL futures odds and best bet: 2024 betting lines for Chiefs quarterback

Coming off back-to-back Super Bowl titles, Patrick Mahomes leads the Kansas City Chiefs into another season with sky-high expectations.

The preseason narrative: The Chiefs are the Super Bowl frontrunners and Mahomes leads the way on the MVP odds leaderboard. It’s nothing new for the two-time MVP and three-time champ, though. And with a revamped wide receivers room, he could be in for another banner season.

Check out our Mahomes NFL futures odds and analysis ahead of the 2024 season.

Mahomes NFL futures odds

Click linked odds to add selection to your betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

Market	Odds
Over 32.5 passing TDs	-125
Under 32.5 passing TDs	+101
Over 4,300.5 passing yards	-112
Under 4,300.5 passing yards	-112

NFL odds as of 3:45 p.m. ET on 08/12/2024.

Check out our complete NFL betting markets.

It’s easy to shower praise on Mahomes, the clear-cut best football player on the planet right now. But if we’re being real, Mahomes’ 2023 regular season was his worst in six years as a starter.

He posted career lows in the following categories:

TDs (27)
TD rate (4.5%)
Pass yards per game (261.4)
Pass yards per attempt (7.0)
Air yards per attempt (6.9)
Passer rating (92.6)
QBR (63.1)

He was still a Pro Bowler and the seventh-place finisher in MVP voting. But we expect more than that from Mahomes, who’d topped 4,500 yards and 35 TDs in four of the previous five seasons.

If he hits those benchmarks again, he’ll cash the over on both of his season-long futures totals.

It’d be a chicken-and-the-egg conundrum to try to figure out last year’s offensive issues in Kansas City. Was Mahomes simply having a down year, or was he hampered by a weak receiving corps?

Either way, the weapons look a lot more enticing on paper entering 2024. Travis Kelce is still producing at a Pro Bowl clip, while Rashee Rice — potentially staring down a suspension, but perhaps not until 2025 — is coming off a 938-yard campaign as a rookie.

The Chiefs added to their arsenal in the offseason by signing former 1,000-yard receiver Marquise Brown and drafting combine speed demon Xavier Worthy in the first round.

Mahomes MVP odds

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NFL MVP is a quarterback’s award, so it’s no surprise to see that all 17 players with odds inside of 50-to-1 play under centre.

And leading the way at 5-to-1 is Mahomes, who already has two MVPs on the shelf.

In 2022, Mahomes led the league in passing yards (5,250) and touchdowns (41) en route to claiming 48 of 50 first-place MVP votes. When he’s on top of his game, there are few who can challenge him.

What Mahomes doesn’t have is the run game potential of someone like Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen. But if his passing production bounces back this year, that might not matter.

Patrick Mahomes top prop bet

Best Bet: Over 32.5 pass TDs (-125)

I’m not making a pick just for the sake of it. I genuinely think Mahomes can make a six-TD improvement this year to cash this bet.

One reason why is that I think they’ll have more explosive plays in their future with the speedy additions of Brown and Worthy.

Mahomes only had three TDs outside the red zone last year. From 2020-22, he averaged 10.7 pass TDs per season outside the red zone.

In the past two seasons, Mahomes as paced the NFL in red zone pass attempts. So he still has a high floor in the most valuable section of the field. But if Brown and Worthy help him regain some lost production from further out, his TD total could soar.

Furthermore, Mahomes’ 4.5% TD rate last year was well below his career average of 6.1%. That alone is due for some positive regression.

Pick made at 3:45 p.m. on 08/12/24.

Andrey Rublev vs. Alexei Popyrin National Bank Open tennis odds: Rublev favoured in final

An unlikely pairing meet in the men’s singles final at the National Bank Open: Russia’s Andrey Rublev against Australia’s Alexei Popyrin.

The pregame narrative: Rublev knocked off top-seeded Jannik Sinner on his way to the final at Canada’s ATP 1000 event, while Popyrin’s most notable win came over fourth-seeded Hubert Hurkacz. For tonight’s match, Rublev has even odds to win in straight sets.

Check out our Rublev vs. Popyrin odds for the National Bank Open men’s singles final on Aug. 12.

Rublev vs. Popyrin odds

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Go to full Rublev vs. Popyrin betting markets.

Even though he had to face world No. 1 Sinner along the way, Rublev had an easier path to tonight’s NBO final than Popyrin did.

Sinner is dealing with a hip injury, after all, and he was the only seeded player that Rublev had to face. The Russian beat each of his three unseeded opponents in straight sets.

Popyrin, meanwhile, ousted three seeded opponents: Hurkacz, Grigor Dimitrov and Ben Shelton. But stamina could be a factor as he’s put on a lot more mileage in this tournament than Rublev has.

As an unseeded player, Popyrin had to play in NBO’s first round. So he has an additional match under his belt and has played just south of 10 hours of competitive play since last Wednesday.

Rublev has played roughly half that amount of time (5:32) over four matches.

In head-to-head matchups, both Rublev and Popyrin have claimed a victory — and Popyrin’s was this year at an ATP 1000 event in Monte Carlo. That match was played on clay, though, while Rublev bested the Aussie last year on hardcourt in Vienna.

Rublev is 19-6 on hardcourt this year and 199-100 overall on the surface. Popyrin is 12-4 on hardcourt this year and 135-99 lifetime on the surface.

Braves vs. Giants props Aug. 12: Blake Snell should carve in marquee pitching matchup vs. Chris Sale

The best pitching matchup of the night is saved for last, as Blake Snell and the San Francisco Giants host Chris Sale and the Atlanta Braves.

The pregame narrative: Snell won last year’s NL Cy Young award and he’s pitching in a similar calibre these days. Sale, meanwhile, is the Cy Young frontrunner this season. I’m taking the over on Snell’s strikeout total as my best bet.

Check out my Braves vs. Giants props for Aug. 12.

Braves vs. Giants props

Go to full Braves/Giants betting markets.

Best Bet: Snell over 7.5 Ks (-122)

Embed: #91405

Snell went through quite a rough patch after being named the NL’s top pitcher in 2023.

His free agency lasted into March and he was on the injured list by late April after three atrocious starts. He hit the IL again in early June, too.

But since returning to the Giants’ rotation on July 9, he’s reminded everyone of how good he can be.

Snell has gone into total shutdown mode over his past six starts, allowing just five runs and 12 hits in 39.0 innings. He has a no-hitter in there, as well as a game in which 15 of his 18 recorded outs were strikeouts.

It’s too late for Snell to defend his Cy Young crown, but it’s not too late for him to mow down a swing-happy Braves squad.

Since the all-star break, Atlanta has the second-highest K rate in the majors (27.5%). And on the season, the Braves have the seventh-highest K rate against left-handers (23.9%) and the fourth-highest whiff rate overall (27.6%).

It shouldn’t be a surprise, then, to know that Snell has fared well against Atlanta’s lineup in a decent sample. In 75 plate appearances, he has more strikeouts (20) than hits allowed (18).

The best part about Snell’s recent success is that he’s working well into games. Each of his past five outings have lasted six-plus innings.

Tonight’s matchup against Sale is primed for a pitcher’s duel, and I think Snell can hang around long enough to clear this strikeout total.

Key stat: Snell has gone over 7.5 Ks in four of his past five starts, averaging 9.2 Ks per start in that span.

Quick pick

Jorge Soler over 0.5 runs (+140): The over/under for this matchup is set at 6.5 runs, so neither team is expected to supply much in the offensive department. But this is a very interesting price for a leadoff hitter on a hot streak.

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Call it the Coors Field bump if you want, but Soler has homered and collected multiple hits in three straight games.

San Francisco is a far less friendly offensive environment than Colorado, but I still like Soler’s opportunity tonight. He’s batting .400 over his past 15 games and has cashed this bet nine times in that span.

Against Snell, Soler is 4-for-12 with a home run, a double and a walk. He typically crushes lefties as a whole, posting a .923 OPS against them since 2021.

Picks made at 12:20 p.m. ET 08/12/2024.

Blue Jays picks vs. Angels Aug. 12: Bet on Guerrero to rebound after hit streak ends

After wrapping a home series against one California team, the Toronto Blue Jays have travelled across the continent to face another.

The pregame narrative: Tonight’s pitching matchup between the Bowden Francis and Los Angeles Angels righty Davis Daniel is totally nondescript. I’m backing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and fading Daulton Varsho on the prop market.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Angels on Aug. 12.

Blue Jays picks vs. Angels

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Best Bet: Varsho under 0.5 runs (-117)

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Varsho has been one of baseball’s worst hitters this year. Plain and simple.

He occasionally saves himself with a quick flash of power, but his expected metrics are as bad as they come. Varsho ranks in the first percentile — i.e., the worst percentile — in xBA (.183), xwOBA (.259) and xSLG (.308), per Baseball Savant.

As a left-handed hitter, Varsho would figure to do his best work against righties. But that hasn’t been the case.

This season, Varsho has a .186/.275/.393 slash line against righties, which equates to a .668 OPS. In lefty-on-lefty matchups, his OPS is .807.

One risk with this prop is that Varsho has batted right ahead of the red-hot Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in Toronto’s past four games, which means he’s in a premium spot to score as long as he gets on base.

Given Varsho’s terrible numbers against righties, though, there’s a chance the Jays move him down in tonight’s lineup. That’ll be something to monitor.

It’s also worth noting that while Davis Daniel (1-3, 6.04 ERA) has been hit much harder by righty batters than by lefty batters. Daniel has allowed a .943 OPS to righties and a .717 OPS to lefties.

I wanted to back Varsho under 1.5 bases (-159), but it has too much juice for my liking. This is a way to fade him at a more palatable price.

Key stat: Varsho has gone under 0.5 runs in 60 of 101 starts this season.

Quick pick

Guerrero over 1.5 bases (-112): Remember what I mentioned a moment ago about Daniel’s .943 OPS allowed to righties? That makes this matchup look really, really good for Vladdy.

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His 22-game hit streak came to an end on Sunday, but that shouldn’t alter the sentiment around baseball’s hottest hitter. Guerrero is batting .463 with a .950 SLG since the all-star break.

Though he’s never faced Daniel before, there’s a lot to like about the matchup. L.A.’s starter is primarily a four-seam/slider guy against righties and has allowed a .500+ SLG on both pitches.

Guerrero’s slash line against four-seam fastballs and sliders this year is .324/.393/.585. He’s cashed this bases prop in 16 of his past 23 games.

Picks made at 10:55 a.m. on 08/12/24.

Mets vs. Mariners Sunday Night Baseball picks: Bet on Lindor but fade offence in Castillo vs. Severino matchup

Two teams in the midst of some intense playoff races meet for a primetime matchup on Sunday Night Baseball.

The pregame narrative: The Seattle Mariners are tied for the lead in the AL West while the New York Mets are a half-game out of a wild-card spot. In a battle between two very capable pitchers — Luis Castillo and Luis Severino — I like the under as my best bet.

Check out my Mets vs. Mariners picks for Sunday Night Baseball on Aug. 11.

Mets vs. Mariners picks

Go to full Mets/Mariners betting markets.

Best Bet: Under 7.5 runs (-109)

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I was debating fading the Mets’ team total (under 3.5 runs at -115) as my best bet, but then I realized the Mariners have been the coldest offence in baseball over the past week. So instead, I’m opting to fade these offences together.

In the past seven days, the Mariners have a 60 wRC+ and a .171/.261/.276 slash line. That’s great news for Severino, who has struggled lately but is capable of getting back into a groove.

From April through June, Severino had a 3.31 ERA and a .604 opponent OPS in 15 starts. If that’s the guy we see on the mound tonight, this Mariners lineup could be in for a rough one.

Fortunately for Seattle, Castillo is on the mound and should be able to keep the Mets pretty quiet.

Castillo has a 2.39 ERA since the start of July, coupled with a .580 opponent OPS. All six of those outings have been quality starts, which means six-plus innings and three or fewer earned runs.

In 98 collective plate appearances against Castillo, the Mets’ current lineup is just 20-for-87 (.230) with 27 Ks.

Key stat: Sixteen of Castillo’s 24 starts have gone under this number, and this under is 5-1 in Seattle’s past six games.

Quick picks

Francisco Lindor over 1.5 bases (+112): If there’s one Mets hitter who might be able to get to Castillo, it’s Lindor.

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Shifting to the leadoff spot turned out to be a great move for Lindor, who has cashed this bet in 36 of 73 games from the top of the Mets’ lineup.

Lindor’s power has been lacking a bit recently, but he does have three multi-hit games in his past four overall. His league-average walk rate and better-than-league-average strikeout rate indicate that he should be up there swinging.

Against Castillo, Lindor is 3-for-9 with a pair of doubles.

Parlay: Jorge Polanco, Pete Alonso both under 1.5 bases (+110): In a game where I’m not expecting much offence, I’m fading one hitter per side in this plus-money combo.

Embed: #91327

Polanco has had some modest success against Severino (2-for-7, a walk), but he’s really grinding at the plate right now. Over his past 10 games, Polanco is batting .171 and has gone under 1.5 bases eight times.

As for Alonso, he’s hitless through two games in this series and has gone under 1.5 bases in nine of his past 11.

Embed: #91326

Righties are batting just .198 with a .557 OPS against Castillo this year, so Alonso should struggle again tonight.

Picks made at 1:40 p.m. ET 08/11/2024.

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Best MLB prop bets Aug. 11: Bet on Glasnow, Turner to shine

We’re loading up on all-stars for today’s MLB prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Marcell Ozuna has been an RBI machine this year and I like his chances of driving in a run against the Colorado Rockies. Elsewhere, look for Tyler Glasnow and Trea Turner to excel in their respective afternoon matchups.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for Aug. 11.

MLB prop bets

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Best Bet: Ozuna over 0.5 RBI (+102)

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There are very few situations that draw me to an RBI prop at a price like this … but Ozuna at Coors Field — against a lefty — is one of them.

The right-handed designated hitter has always been stronger against LHPs, but that platoon advantage has been particularly prominent this season.

In 113 plate appearances against southpaws, Ozuna has a .351/.443/.577 slash line.

Today, he’ll face Rockies starter Kyle Freeland, who routinely (and aptly) gets rocked by the Atlanta Braves. Freeland allowed 14 runs over just 10.0 innings against Atlanta last year, and the current lineup has a .525 SLG against him.

Assuming Ozuna is in his typical No. 3 spot of the Braves’ order, he should have Austin Riley and Jorge Soler ahead of him. Those batters are 8-for-20 (.400) against Freeland.

That gives me hope that there will be traffic on the basepaths, as does the fact that this series has featured 30 total runs through two games. Expect Ozuna to have some quality RBI chances in a plus matchup.

Key stat: Ozuna, who leads the NL with 90 RBI, has cashed this prop in nine of his past 15 games.

Quick picks

Glasnow over 8.5 Ks (+110): This is hefty ask for any pitcher, but the price is right and so is the matchup.

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The Pittsburgh Pirates have the sixth-highest K rate in the majors and Glasnow tallied nine strikeouts against them back in June.

Mid-90s heat comes easy to Glasnow, but his best put-away pitches are his curveball and slider. Pittsburgh’s lineup struggles with both of those breaking pitches.

The Pirates have the third-highest whiff rate and fifth-highest K rate against curveballs and sliders, per Baseball Savant.

Over his past 16 starts, Glasnow has cashed this prop nine times.

Turner over 0.5 runs (-104): Turner has entered a bit of a cold spell, but I think he can bust out of it today against a familiar foe.

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Turner’s Philadelphia Phillies are up against Merrill Kelly and the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Philly’s lineup has put up solid numbers against Kelly (.245 BA, .447 SLG in 107 plate appearances), and Turner is at the centre of it.

The shortstop is 10-for-25 (.400) with a home run, three doubles and five walks against Kelly. Simply put, he knows how to get on base in this matchup.

Kelly posted a 2.19 ERA over his first four starts this year but hasn’t pitched since mid-April. Last year, Turner doubled, walked and scored against Kelly when they met in Arizona.

Picks made at 11:20 a.m. ET on 08/11/2024.

Blue Jays picks vs. Athletics Aug. 11: Fade offence but ride with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to extend hit streak

The Toronto Blue Jays and Oakland Athletics play the rubber match of a three-game series this afternoon at Rogers Centre.

The pregame narrative: Toronto leads the season series, 3-2, entering its final matchup of the year against Oakland. Chris Bassitt, a longtime former A’s pitcher, faces his old squad for a second time in 2024 opposite JP Sears.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Athletics on Aug. 11.

Blue Jays picks vs. Athletics

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Best Bet: Under 8.5 runs (-117)

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The Jays and A’s have combined for just five total runs through two games in this series, and offence has been a struggle in all of their matchups this year.

Four of their five meetings this year have gone under this total. The exception was a 6-4 Toronto win back in June, in which four runs were scored in the 10th inning.

Toronto is one of the best overs teams in baseball, cashing at a 55.3% clip, per Team Rankings. But the Jays have a subpar offence that averages just 4.11 runs per game (24th in MLB), so their bats aren’t usually the ones driving up the game total.

The same is true for the A’s, who rank 26th in runs per game (4.01).

Both pitchers make this under look like the right play on Sunday afternoon. Bassitt, who’s coming off 7.0 innings of two-run ball against the electric Baltimore Orioles offence, has made a habit of shutting down Oakland.

The current A’s lineup is batting .220 against him with a .305 SLG in 64 plate appearances, per Baseball Savant. Bassitt allowed just one run on four hits over 8.0 innings when he pitched in Oakland earlier this summer.

As for Sears, his recent numbers are really encouraging. The left-hander owns a 2.72 ERA over his past six starts and has allowed two or fewer earned runs in five of those outings.

The Blue Jays rank 24th in OPS against lefties (.671). Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — who we’ll discuss more in a moment — is really the only guy on the team who crushes lefties routinely.

Key stat: This under has cashed in 12 of Bassitt’s 23 starts and in 15 of Sears’ 23 starts.

Quick pick

Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+102): Guerrero extended his hit streak to 22 games on Saturday with a first-inning single. He couldn’t muster up any more offence from there, but power hasn’t been a problem during this streak.

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The all-star first baseman has cashed this prop 16 times during the 22-game run, collecting 22 extra-base hits and posting an otherworldly 1.025 SLG in that span.

Guerrero is 0-for-3 against Sears, who is pitching well right now as mentioned above. But I’m not balking at a plus-money price for baseball’s hottest hitter — especially knowing what he usually does against lefties.

Among 178 hitters with 90-plus plate appearances against LHPs, Guerrero ranks fourth in wRC+ (207) and fifth in OPS (1.108).

Picks made at 9:05 a.m. on 08/11/24.

USA vs. France Olympics men’s gold medal basketball odds and best bet: Back the underdogs ATS

After surviving a huge scare in the semifinals, Team USA is heavily favoured over host nation France in the Olympic men’s basketball tournament gold medal match.

The pregame narrative: Facing a 13-point deficit in the fourth quarter, the U.S. surged back for a dramatic win over Serbia. The Americans are 16.5-point favourites over Victor Wembanyama and France, who upset Canada and Germany to get here.

Check out our USA vs. France odds and best bet for the gold medal game on Aug. 10.

USA vs. France odds

France vs. Canada markets	Betting odds
France moneyline	+900
USA moneyline	-2,000
France +16.5	-112
USA -16.5	-112
Over 176.5 points	-112
Under 176.5 points	-112

Go to full USA vs. France betting markets.

Best Bet: France +16.5 (-112)

Serbia had an almost literally golden opportunity to dethrone Team USA in the semifinals, but a total meltdown in the bright lights of crunch time quashed that hope.

Do I think that game can wake up the Americans a bit? Similar to how some uneasy results in pre-tournament play led to a dominant run through the quarterfinals? For sure.

But I also know that France will have a raucous home crowd behind it. I’m not calling for an upset here, but France should hang a little closer than this.

Look at what France did as an 8-point underdog against Canada and as a 5-point underdog against Germany. Victor Wembanyama was atrocious as a scorer in both games and it didn’t matter.

Wemby shot a combined 6-for-27 (and 1-for-14 from 3-point range) in those matchups.

But teammates like Isaia Cordinier (6-for-10 from 3-point range) and Guerschon Yabusele (39 points) picked up the slack to help beat a pair of deeply talented teams.

Now just imagine if Wembanyama turns in a better performance.

Either way, I don’t think playing the what-if game is necessary. France has found other avenues to score, and Wemby provides elite value as a defender regardless of what he’s doing on the offensive end.

The USA has coasted to victory in most of its games. But the gold medal match should be more competitive than the spread indicates.

Key stat: France has covered this spread in all 13 international games it’s played in 2024.

Pick as of 3:10 p.m. ET on 08/09/2024.

Blue Jays picks vs. Athletics Aug. 9: Berrios should give Toronto home-field advantage

The Toronto Blue Jays continue their homestand tonight with the Oakland Athletics in town.

The pregame narrative: Toronto just took two of three at Rogers Centre against the AL East-leading Baltimore Orioles, and I think the Jays will win again tonight. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s hitting streak is up to 20 games, and I’m interested in backing him to stay hot.

Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Athletics on Aug. 9.

Blue Jays picks vs. Athletics

Go to full Blue Jays/Athletics MLB betting markets.

Best Bet: Blue Jays moneyline (-132)

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I don’t always pay close attention to home/road situations in baseball, but I think tonight’s matchup being in Toronto makes a difference for the Blue Jays’ chances to win.

The A’s have played their past 18 games in California. After a cross-continent flight, they’re playing in the Eastern Time Zone for the first time since July 14 (before the all-star break).

Oakland is 19-38 on the road this year, which includes a 13-26 record when playing on Eastern or Central Time.

And it just so happens that the A’s are running into a pitcher who cherishes his home-field advantage.

Jose Berrios (9-9, 4.11 ERA) is having a mediocre year, as his 99 ERA+ indicates. But the results tend to improve when he’s pitching at Rogers Centre.

Berrios at home (11 starts): 2.99 ERA, .607 opponent OPS
Berrios on the road (12 starts): 5.29 ERA, .873 opponent OPS

Toronto is 9-2 with Berrios pitching at The Dome and 5-7 when he pitches elsewhere.

In a limited sample, the Blue Jays’ right-hander has held Oakland’s lineup in check: .214 BA and .321 SLG in 28 plate appearances. Similar success from Berrios tonight should lead to a win, especially if Vladdy can continue to drive the bus for the offence.

Key stat: Since 2022, Berrios has a 3.55 ERA at home. Toronto is 31-11 in his home starts over that span.

Quick picks

Guerrero over 0.5 runs (-104): Once again, Guerrero did it all for the Blue Jays in last night’s narrow win. He went 3-for-4 with two runs and four RBI, finishing a single shy of the cycle.

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During his 20-game hit streak, the all-star first baseman has a staggering .575 on-base percentage. When someone is getting on base at such a staggeringly high clip, it makes this prop look particularly enticing.

Vladdy has scored 23 runs over his past 20 games, cashing this bet 15 times.

A’s starter Mitch Spence hasn’t been very sharp in recent outings, which is part of the rationale, too. Spence has a 5.30 ERA and an .810 opponent OPS over his past seven outings.

Berrios over 5.5 Ks (+104): This is a line Berrios usually falls under, but I think it’s worth a look at plus-money odds tonight.

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The A’s have the third-highest K rate in baseball this year overall (25.1%) and against righties (25.4%). Their current lineup has struck out in 12 of 28 plate appearances against Berrios.

Last time out, Berrios fanned six Yankees over 5.0 innings. He finished with exactly five Ks in both starts before that and tallied a season-high 10 Ks in early July.

Picks made at 9:30 a.m. on 08/09/24.

Phillies vs. Diamondbacks props Aug. 9: Bet on Zack Wheeler despite tough matchup

Zack Wheeler is on the mound for the Philadelphia Phillies tonight to face an Arizona Diamondbacks squad that he carved up earlier this season.

The pregame narrative: Wheeler, who has six-plus strikeouts in five consecutive starts, is the headliner for my prop bets in this late-night matchup. I’m also backing Josh Bell and Kyle Schwarber in a plus-money parlay.

Check out my Phillies vs. Diamondbacks props for Aug. 9.

Phillies vs. Diamondbacks props

Go to full Phillies/Diamondbacks betting markets.

Best Bet: Wheeler over 5.5 Ks (-127)

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Arizona is one of the most disciplined teams at the plate, which is why this line comes in so low. None of the past 10 starting pitchers to face the D-backs cleared this total, and that list includes Paul Skenes.

With that in mind, you might think I’d look to fade Wheeler at more enticing odds. But he’s already shown he can soar past 5.5 Ks against this team.

In June, Wheeler went 7.0 strong innings against the D-backs, allowing just one run on two hits while striking out eight. Against Arizona’s current lineup, the righty has 51 Ks over 181 plate appearances (good for a hearty 28.2% K rate).

Among his 22 starts this season, Wheeler has cashed this prop 15 times.

Again, Arizona is among the league’s best in terms of K rate, whiff rate and chase rate — ranking sixth-best or better in each of those categories. So this one could be a bit of a sweat.

But Wheeler has demonstrated — against Arizona in particular and the league at large — that he’s capable of clearing this total.

Key stat: Wheeler has 148 strikeouts over 22 starts (6.7 Ks per outing).

Quick pick

Parlay: Bell, Schwarber 1+ hits each (+132): One player who wasn’t on the D-backs the last time they faced Wheeler is Bell, who has some impressive numbers in this head-to-head matchup.

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Bell, who has seen Wheeler more than twice as many times as any of his teammates, is 13-for-43 (.302) off the right-hander with four homers and two doubles.

In his past 14 games, Bell is batting .333 and has cashed this prop 11 times. He already has three multi-hit games in seven appearances for Arizona.

But if Bell is heating up, Schwarber is already scorching.

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Philadelphia’s leadoff man has clubbed eight hits over his past three games — and six of them went for extra bases. He’s now 15-for-32 (.469) during an eight-game hit streak.

Schwarber, a lefty hitter, has reverse splits that don’t work in his favour against right-hander Ryne Nelson. But I still don’t think a single hit is too much to ask of the designated hitter.

MLB picks made at 11:00 a.m. ET 08/09/2024.

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