The Toronto Blue Jays continue their homestand tonight with the Oakland Athletics in town.
The pregame narrative: Toronto just took two of three at Rogers Centre against the AL East-leading Baltimore Orioles, and I think the Jays will win again tonight. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s hitting streak is up to 20 games, and I’m interested in backing him to stay hot.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Athletics on Aug. 9.
Blue Jays picks vs. Athletics
Go to full Blue Jays/Athletics MLB betting markets.
Best Bet: Blue Jays moneyline (-132)
I don’t always pay close attention to home/road situations in baseball, but I think tonight’s matchup being in Toronto makes a difference for the Blue Jays’ chances to win.
The A’s have played their past 18 games in California. After a cross-continent flight, they’re playing in the Eastern Time Zone for the first time since July 14 (before the all-star break).
Oakland is 19-38 on the road this year, which includes a 13-26 record when playing on Eastern or Central Time.
And it just so happens that the A’s are running into a pitcher who cherishes his home-field advantage.
Jose Berrios (9-9, 4.11 ERA) is having a mediocre year, as his 99 ERA+ indicates. But the results tend to improve when he’s pitching at Rogers Centre.
- Berrios at home (11 starts): 2.99 ERA, .607 opponent OPS
- Berrios on the road (12 starts): 5.29 ERA, .873 opponent OPS
Toronto is 9-2 with Berrios pitching at The Dome and 5-7 when he pitches elsewhere.
In a limited sample, the Blue Jays’ right-hander has held Oakland’s lineup in check: .214 BA and .321 SLG in 28 plate appearances. Similar success from Berrios tonight should lead to a win, especially if Vladdy can continue to drive the bus for the offence.
Key stat: Since 2022, Berrios has a 3.55 ERA at home. Toronto is 31-11 in his home starts over that span.
Quick picks
Guerrero over 0.5 runs (-104): Once again, Guerrero did it all for the Blue Jays in last night’s narrow win. He went 3-for-4 with two runs and four RBI, finishing a single shy of the cycle.
During his 20-game hit streak, the all-star first baseman has a staggering .575 on-base percentage. When someone is getting on base at such a staggeringly high clip, it makes this prop look particularly enticing.
Vladdy has scored 23 runs over his past 20 games, cashing this bet 15 times.
A’s starter Mitch Spence hasn’t been very sharp in recent outings, which is part of the rationale, too. Spence has a 5.30 ERA and an .810 opponent OPS over his past seven outings.
Berrios over 5.5 Ks (+104): This is a line Berrios usually falls under, but I think it’s worth a look at plus-money odds tonight.
The A’s have the third-highest K rate in baseball this year overall (25.1%) and against righties (25.4%). Their current lineup has struck out in 12 of 28 plate appearances against Berrios.
Last time out, Berrios fanned six Yankees over 5.0 innings. He finished with exactly five Ks in both starts before that and tallied a season-high 10 Ks in early July.
Picks made at 9:30 a.m. on 08/09/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.