The Toronto Blue Jays and Cincinnati Reds play a rubber match at Rogers Centre this evening.
The pregame narrative: George Springer starred in last night’s offensive outburst for Toronto and I think he can make some noise again on Wednesday. But I’m fading the Jays on the moneyline in a pick ’em.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Reds on Aug. 21.
Blue Jays picks vs. Reds
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Best Bet: Springer over 0.5 runs (-113)
Pretty much any Blue Jays hitting prop was good on Tuesday as the team romped to a 10-3 victory over the Reds. The headliner of that performance was Springer, who clubbed a pair of home runs into the left field corner.
Springer is having a career-worst year by a lot of metrics, but he’s turned things around quite a bit since late June.
Entering play on June 25, Springer was batting .188 with a .559 OPS. Since then, he has a .271 BA and an .860 OPS in 47 games.
Just as importantly, he reclaimed the Jays’ leadoff spot several weeks ago and hasn’t given it up. Now he has the most plate appearances possible and bats ahead of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — two big pluses for a scoring prop.
Toronto’s lineup as a whole hasn’t seen much of Reds starter Nick Martinez, but Springer is an outlier in that regard. He’s 5-for-15 with a home run and a walk against Martinez.
Key stat: Springer has scored seven runs over his past 12 games. He only has a .212 BA in that span, but his .264 xBA — per Baseball Savant — suggests a reasonably high quality of contact.
Quick pick
Reds moneyline (-109): This is a textbook coin flip game between two non-playoff teams deploying so-so starting pitchers. But I feel better about where Martinez is at right now, so I’m siding with the Reds.
After a failed stint in the Reds’ rotation earlier this year, Martinez spent most of the spring and summer working out of the bullpen. In doing so, he earned his way back into a starting role.
In 69.0 innings since May 4, Martinez has a 2.35 ERA and a .606 opponent OPS. Toronto starter Yariel Rodriguez, meanwhile, has a 3.93 ERA and a .696 opponent OPS in 55.0 IP on the season.
Martinez returned to the rotation earlier this month and tossed back-to-back scoreless outings on the road. He’s not a big name, but he’s been solid.
The Blue Jays are just 5-8 in Rodriguez’s starts, losing five of the past six.
Picks made at 11:20 a.m. on 08/21/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.