After Thursday’s off-day, the Toronto Blue Jays embark on a new series against the Atlanta Braves.
The pregame narrative: Atlanta, now tied for the final wild-card spot in the NL, desperately needs to start stacking wins. But my focus tonight is on Toronto’s two hottest hitters, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Daulton Varsho.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Braves on Sept. 6.
Blue Jays picks vs. Braves
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Best Bet: Varsho over 0.5 runs (+125)
If Atlanta starter Max Fried was on a tear, I might pause a bit when looking at this prop market. But the left-hander has been quite hittable over the past month.
Since the start of August, Fried has a 4.96 ERA over six starts. Opponents have 29 hits and 21 runs against him over 32.2 innings in that span.
Varsho has never faced Fried, but lefty-on-lefty matchups are supposed to favour the pitcher. In this case, the opposite is true.
This season, Varsho has a .296/.361/.477 slash line against lefties (.838 OPS). His OPS against righties is more than 200 points worse.
As for Fried, he’s allowed lefties to bat .330 against him with an .870 OPS. By comparison, righties have a .203 BA and a .554 OPS.
From the No. 2 spot in the Blue Jays’ lineup, Varsho is in a great spot to score because Guerrero bats right behind him (and we’ll go further on Guerrero in a moment).
A rare lefty-lefty matchup that favours the hitter certainly helps, too.
Key stat: Varsho has a .905 OPS and 14 runs scored over his past 16 starts.
Quick picks
Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+115): Can you even say Guerrero is on a heater anymore? Or is he just really damn good?
Since the all-star break, Guerrero has a .419/.489/.813 slash line, as well as a league-best 257 wRC+. His strikeout rate is just 8.7% in that span — third-lowest among 161 qualified hitters — which is another way to indicate how locked in he’s been.
In 42 post-all-star games, Guerrero has cashed this bet 29 times (69.0%).
Guerrero is 1-for-5 with a double against Fried, but they haven’t matched up in three years. I’ll gladly ride with modern-day Vladdy.
Matt Olson over 1.5 bases (+110): Olson was last year’s home run king with 54 long balls, but he’s only at 25 with a few weeks to go this season. Fortunately, the first baseman seems to have rediscovered his power stroke.
In 13 games since Aug. 22, Olson has a .686 SLG and has cashed this bet nine times. In that 13-game span, 12 of his 15 hits have gone for extra bases.
Kevin Gausman wasn’t announced as Toronto’s starter at the time of this writing, but he is lined up to pitch tonight. Olson is 3-for-10 with a home run against Gausman.
Picks made at 10:35 a.m. on 09/06/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.