I’m going with a running back tandem for NFL prop bets in Week 1.
The pregame narrative: Neither Zack Moss nor Rachaad White are the flashiest names in the game, but I like both to clear yardage totals in their respective season openers.
Check out the best NFL Week 1 prop bets for the upcoming games.
NFL Week 1 prop bets
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Best bet: Moss over 46.5 rush yards (-120)
The post-Joe Mixon era is underway in the Queen City. Despite all the preseason buzz around Chase Brown, I view Moss as the RB1 for this team. And with that in mind, this is a very attainable yardage line.
Moss is No. 1 on the Bengals’ official depth chart, while Brown is slated to be the team’s primary kick returner.
No doubt Brown will steal plenty of touches, but this is a game where both backs should have ample opportunities.
Cincinnati (-8) is the heaviest favourite in Week 1, which means the team has the best chance possible for a positive game script to run the ball.
And given that Ja’Marr Chase only just returned to practice in a limited capacity on Wednesday — after holding out most of the offseason in a contract dispute — it’s possible that Cincy’s passing game won’t be humming at full speed anyway.
This is a narrative-heavy pick, but what else is Week 1 for? We won’t know exactly how the Bengals use Moss until they start using him.
What I know is that a sub-50-yard total for the starting tailback on a heavy home favourite should be well within reach.
Key stat: Moss averaged 56.7 rush yards per game last year. He cleared this total in five of his eight starts.
Quick pick
White over 83.5 rushing/receiving yards (-120): The Commanders ranked dead last in points and yards allowed last year. They’ve got some new faces on defence, but this is still a group White should be able to exploit.
White rose to the occasion as Tampa Bay’s starting running back in 2023, and he was more productive as the season progressed. Over his final 14 games (playoffs included), he averaged 98.2 scrimmage yards while notching nine touchdowns.
He also cashed the over on this rushing/receiving yardage total in 10 of those 14 games.
Baker Mayfield is clearly comfortable checking down to White, who is capable of making things happen in open space. This is a great matchup for the tailback to do damage.
Picks made at 3:35 p.m. ET on 09/05/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.