The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Cleveland Guardians tonight for the opener of a three-game set.
The pregame narrative: This is a potential World Series preview between a pair of teams in line for first-round byes. There are things to like about both starting pitchers tonight, which has me fading Teoscar Hernandez and Bo Naylor in the prop market.
Check out my Guardians vs. Dodgers prop picks for Sept. 6.
Guardians vs. Dodgers prop picks
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Best Bet: Hernandez under 0.5 runs (-129)
Hernandez typically bats cleanup for the Dodgers, which means he’s in a better spot to drive in runs than to score them himself.
Lately, he hasn’t done a ton of either.
The former Blue Jay is in a production decline that began on Aug. 11. Since then, he’s batting .226 with a sub-.300 on-base percentage. Hernandez has scored just eight runs over 22 games in that span.
In fairness, Hernandez tends to hit lefties well … but I’m not bullish on his chances to excel in tonight’s matchup against Cleveland southpaw Matthew Boyd.
The 10-year veteran just made his season debut with Cleveland last month and has posted a 2.38 ERA over four tidy starts. Opponents are hitting just .175 off him so far.
Boyd is a decent but not overpowering strikeout pitcher, yet he’s mowed down Hernandez several times in the past. In this head-to-head matchup, Hernandez is just 1-for-10 with five Ks.
From the cleanup spot, Hernandez would have to be excelling at the plate for me to want to back him to score a run. Given that he’s struggling a bit and is already not in an optimal spot from which to score, I’m content to fade him tonight.
Key stat: Hernandez has gone under 0.5 runs in 16 of his past 22 games.
Quick picks
Naylor under 0.5 hits (-118): Naylor has gone hitless in almost exactly half of his starts (44 of 89), and this looks like another reasonable spot to fade him.
Tonight, left-hander Landon Knack gets the ball for the Dodgers. The rookie has allowed just a .169 BA to lefty hitters through 10 appearances (eight starts).
Naylor, meanwhile, is 13-for-66 (.197) against LHPs this year. That’s right in line with his season-long xBA (.197), as measured by Baseball Savant.
Playing with a platoon disadvantage in an unfamiliar matchup means Naylor should struggle.
Mookie Betts over 0.5 runs (-127): Let’s end on a positive one, shall we? This isn’t anything special price-wise, but I do like Betts’ chances of cashing.
Since returning from the injured list last month, Betts has a .904 OPS in 21 starts. He’s scored a run in eight of his past 11.
Betts is 3-for-10 in his career against Boyd and has posted a .325 BA against lefties this year. He’s also reached base multiple times in six of his past 10 games, creating ample opportunities for teammates to bring him home.
Picks made at 12:20 p.m. ET 09/06/2024.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.