The New York Mets won a dramatic, low-scoring affair against the Toronto Blue Jays last night, and we could be in for a similar situation on Tuesday at Rogers Centre.
The pregame narrative: David Peterson faces former Met Chris Bassitt, and I’m backing Peterson’s side to hold Toronto to a low run total. I also like Daulton Varsho’s chances to get a hit.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Mets on Sept. 10.
Blue Jays picks vs. Mets
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Best Bet: Blue Jays under 3.5 runs (-125)
For the better part of August, Toronto had one of the best offences in baseball. Too little, too late … but still nice to see.
The Blue Jays’ bats have gone quiet once again, though, and now they’re running into their worst type of enemy: A left-handed pitcher on a roll.
Peterson has a 1.63 ERA and a .577 OPS over his past six starts. In each of those, his opponents finished under 3.5 runs.
On the whole, it’s been quite a nice season for the five-year vet. Among 128 pitchers with 90-plus innings thrown, he has the seventh-lowest ERA (2.75).
If you go by Baseball Savant’s batted ball metrics, you might call Peterson lucky. There’s quite a chasm between his 2.75 ERA and his xERA (4.87).
But what Peterson does about as well as anyone is coax ground balls — 52.8% ground ball rate, 90th percentile — and he should be able to get plenty of those from the Jays.
Toronto has the seventh-highest ground ball rate against lefties this year (44.5%). The Jays also have the third-lowest SLG against lefties (.356).
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who’s always the team’s best hope for offensive success, limped off the field on Monday after fouling a few balls off his foot. If he misses tonight’s game, this team prop should have an even better chance to cash.
Key stat: Toronto has gone under 3.5 runs in nine of its past 12 games.
Quick pick
Varsho over 0.5 hits (-143): I don’t understand this price for Varsho, who is a much better hitter against lefties than he is against righties.
That might seem counterintuitive since he bats from the left side, but it’s true. Just look at Varsho’s splits this year:
| Situation | BA | OPS | K% |
| vs. LHPs | .286 | .818 | 15.8% |
| vs. RHPs | .196 | .673 | 29.6% |
Peterson is a little better against lefty hitters than against righties, but the splits aren’t as drastic. Hitters on the left side are still batting .232 against him (compared to .246 for righties).
Varsho has recorded a hit in 14 of his past 19 starts.
Picks made at 10:20 a.m. on 09/10/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.