The New York Mets won a dramatic, low-scoring affair against the Toronto Blue Jays last night, and we could be in for a similar situation on Tuesday at Rogers Centre.
The pregame narrative: David Peterson faces former Met Chris Bassitt, and I’m targeting Peterson in this matchup. I like the over on his outs prop and I think Toronto’s run total is worth fading with him on the mound.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Mets on Sept. 10.
Blue Jays picks vs. Mets
MLB markets: Click Here | MLB stats: Click Here
Best Bet: Blue Jays under 3.5 runs (-112)
For the better part of August, Toronto had one of the best offences in baseball. Too little, too late … but still nice to see.
The Blue Jays’ bats have gone quiet once again, though, and now they’re running into their worst type of enemy: A left-handed pitcher on a roll.
Peterson has a 1.63 ERA and a .577 OPS over his past six starts. In each of those, his opponents finished under 3.5 runs.
On the whole, it’s been quite a nice season for the five-year vet. Among 128 pitchers with 90-plus innings thrown, he has the seventh-lowest ERA (2.75).
If you go by Baseball Savant’s batted ball metrics, you might call Peterson lucky. There’s quite a chasm between his 2.75 ERA and his xERA (4.87).
But what Peterson does about as well as anyone is coax ground balls — 52.8% ground ball rate, 90th percentile — and he should be able to get plenty of those from the Jays.
Toronto has the seventh-highest ground ball rate against lefties this year (44.5%). The Jays also have the third-lowest SLG against lefties (.356).
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who’s always the team’s best hope for offensive success, limped off the field on Monday after fouling a few balls off his foot. If he misses tonight’s game, this team prop should have an even better chance to cash.
Key stat: Toronto has gone under 3.5 runs in nine of its past 12 games.
Quick picks
Peterson over 17.5 outs (-129): The Mets’ bullpen is in a decent spot right now, but they did deploy four relievers last night (including their two high-leverage arms). Some length from Peterson tonight would be welcomed.
And based on his recent results, I like his chances to work through six frames.
Peterson has gone over 17.5 outs in six of his seven starts since the beginning of August. He’s averaged 19.1 outs in that span.
If Toronto does stay under its 3.5-run projected total, Peterson will have a solid chance to collect enough outs for this bet to cash.
Daulton Varsho over 0.5 hits (-132): I don’t understand this price for Varsho, who is a much better hitter against lefties than he is against righties.
That might seem counterintuitive since he bats from the left side, but it’s true. Just look at Varsho’s splits this year:
| Situation | BA | OPS | K% |
| vs. LHPs | .286 | .818 | 15.8% |
| vs. RHPs | .196 | .673 | 29.6% |
Peterson is a little better against lefty hitters than against righties, but the splits aren’t as drastic. Hitters on the left side are still batting .232 against him (compared to .246 for righties).
Varsho has recorded a hit in 14 of his past 19 starts.
Picks made at 9:20 a.m. on 09/10/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.