Matthew Stafford is back at Ford Field (again) to face his old team in the Sunday Night Football opener between the Los Angeles Rams and Detroit Lions.
The pregame narrative: This game features the highest over/under of the week, which is a dream for prop and SGP bettors. I’m looking for production out of Puka Nacua and David Montgomery in this +310 parlay.
Check out our Rams vs. Lions predictions for the season opener on Sunday, Sept. 8.
Rams vs. Lions SGP predictions
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Parlay: Rams +10.5 + Nacua over 64.5 receiving yards + Montgomery anytime TD (+310)
Rams +10.5 (-278): Before getting to the player props, let’s start with an alt spread that should be well within the Rams’ reach.
The Rams, whose projected win total (8.5) is shaded toward the over, are viewed as legitimate playoff contenders entering the season. They aren’t likely to get pushed around.
Last year, L.A. went 6-3-1 ATS as an away team and 11-6-1 ATS overall. Detroit (14-6 ATS) covered the spread more often than anyone, mind you, but not at a number like this.
The Lions failed to cover a -10.5 spread in 14 of 20 games last season. That included a one-point home win over the Rams in the NFC wild-card round.
SGP legs
Nacua over 64.5 rec. yards (-175): Nacua was a huge reason why the Rams reached the playoffs last year, and he was at the centre of their near-upset over the Lions.
In the wild-card game, Nacua led all players in targets (10), receptions (nine) and yards (181). His rookie season was electric from start to finish, and I don’t see why he’d slow down now.
Nacua averaged 92.6 receiving yards per game last year, hitting the 70-yard mark in 12 of 18 games.
According to DraftEdge, Detroit is the third-most favourable matchup for opposing WRs. Look for Nacua to carve up the Lions’ secondary.
Montgomery anytime TD (-167): Rushing behind the Lions’ elite offensive line, Montgomery enjoyed a career year last season. The five-year veteran set career highs in touchdowns (13) and yards per rush (4.6)
Despite missing three games, Montgomery finished tied for fifth in the NFL with his 13 rushing TDs. He then added another one against the Rams in the playoffs.
Jahmyr Gibbs will continue to have a hearty share of work in Detroit’s backfield, but Montgomery still figures to be the lead back around the goal line.
Last year, the ex-Chicago RB saw 29 carries inside the 10-yard line (sixth in the NFL, per Fantasy Pros).
Picks made at 12:00 p.m. on 09/08/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.