The Tampa Bay Rays host the Toronto Blue Jays tonight in a matchup between non-playoff teams playing out the string.
The pregame narrative: Despite the lack of playoff implications, there are still some compelling wagers to make on tonight’s game. I like the Blue Jays to win for an eighth straight time with Jose Berrios on the mound, and I’m backing Alejandro Kirk in a plus-money prop bet.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Rays on Sept. 20.
Blue Jays picks vs. Rays
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Best Bet: Blue Jays moneyline (-106)
The Blue Jays have the hotter pitcher and the hotter offence in tonight’s matchup. Not to mention a better price.
I’m trying to figure out what’s not to like, and I’m coming up short.
Let’s start with the pitching situation. Jose Berrios has been on a tear for over a month now, winning seven consecutive starts. Though I don’t put much stock in the pitcher win stat, it’s clear that Berrios is more than holding up his end of the bargain in that span:
- 1.51 ERA
- .188 opponent BA
- .535 opponent OPS
- 4% walk rate
Walks were Berrios’ problem when he last faced the Rays in July. He matched a career-high with six free passes in a 4-2 loss. Fortunately, he has only 11 walks in nine starts since.
Rays starter Tyler Alexander also isn’t a high walk rate guy, but teams haven’t struggled to knock him around recently.
Alexander has allowed a 6.59 ERA and a .567 SLG over his past six starts.
Briefly looking at these teams’ offensive outputs, Toronto holds the advantage in that regard, too.
Over the past 30 days, the Blue Jays rank fifth in wRC+ (114) and seventh in OPS (.753). In the same timeframe, the Rays rank 20th in wRC+ (89) and 24th in OPS (.660)
Frankly, I’m surprised to see the Rays favoured in this matchup. But a near-even-money price to back the Jays only heightens my interest.
Key stat: The Blue Jays have won seven straight outings with Berrios on the mound. And they’re 21-9 in Berrios’ starts this season.
Quick pick
Kirk over 0.5 RBI (+145): As mentioned in the best bet section, Alexander is doling out a lot of runs and a lot of power right now. I think Kirk has a good chance to get a piece of the action tonight.
For one thing, Kirk has already put up nice numbers in this matchup. He’s 3-for-8 with a home run and a double against Alexander.
And from the heart of the order, he’s done well to cash in several recent RBI opportunities.
Kirk has recorded an RBI in 10 of his past 20 starts, logging 15 RBI in total in that time.
Picks made at 9:55 a.m. on 09/20/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.