In desperate need of a win, the Baltimore Ravens head to Jerry World to face the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday afternoon.
The pregame narrative: I’m shying away from a side in this matchup and instead backing a teased-down over to lead off this +265 same-game parlay. The rest of the SGP features prop bets on Lamar Jackson and Jalen Tolbert.
Check out our Ravens vs. Cowboys predictions for the matchup on Sept. 22.
Ravens vs. Cowboys SGP predictions
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Parlay: Over 43.5 points + Jackson over 269.5 passing/rushing yards + Tolbert over 24.5 receiving yards (+275)
Over 43.5 points (-200): The New Orleans Saints cleared this total by themselves in Dallas last week.
Not that I expect the Cowboys to get stomped like that very often on their home turf, but it does illustrate that their defence isn’t a finished product.
And it’s clear that both Baltimore and Dallas can put up points.
Since the start of last season, the Cowboys and Ravens rank third and sixth, respectively, in EPA per play, according to RBSDM.com. In the same timeframe, the over is 7-3 in Cowboys’ home games.
Through two weeks, the lowest point total either of these teams has seen is 47. This alt total should definitely be in play.
SGP legs
Jackson over 269.5 passing/rushing yards (-115): As anticipated, Jackson’s outsized rushing volume from the season opener (16 attempts, 122 yards) didn’t carry over to Week 2. Still, he finished with 45 yards on just five carries.
If he can clear the 40-yard rushing milestone again, I think he’ll be well-positioned to hit the over on his passing/rushing total. After all, he’s thrown for over 240 yards in both games so far.
In 20 games since the start of last year (playoffs included), Jackson has averaged 288.2 passing/rushing yards per game.
Against a Dallas defence that yielded 432 yards last week, the reigning MVP should be able to shine again.
Tolbert over 24.5 receiving yards (-162): Tolbert is coming off a game in which he set career highs in targets (nine), catches (six) and yards (82).
He also had a career-high 116 air yards and made an impressive contested catch on an underthrown ball:
With ball skills like that, he doesn’t need nine targets a game to cash this kind of modest yardage line. He can do it in one catch.
I do expect a target regression this Sunday as tight end Jake Ferguson appears on track to return for Dallas. But the Cowboys gave backup tight end Luke Schoonmaker six targets last week and that didn’t slow Tolbert down.
With a 77.0% route participation rate, per Player Profiler, Tolbert has carved out a role in his third year with Dallas.
Picks made at 1:00 p.m. on 09/20/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.