After sustaining a 1-0 shutout loss last night, the Toronto Blue Jays are back at it today against the Tampa Bay Rays.
The pregame narrative: I was bullish on the Blue Jays to win last night, and that didn’t work out. Today, my best instinct is to take the under and ride with a plus-money strikeout prop for Rays starter Taj Bradley.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Rays on Sept. 21.
Blue Jays picks vs. Rays
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Best Bet: Under 8 runs (-110)
Every game is its own beast, but after both teams’ lifeless offensive efforts last night, I’m compelled to take the under.
Toronto has been shut out in two of its past three games, and only seven total runs have been scored in that span. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, has gone under this run total in 12 of its past 15 games.
Tonight’s pitching matchup between Bradley and Yariel Rodriguez might not scream run suppression, but look closer. Rodriguez has only allowed two runs in his past three starts (12.1 innings), and he had a solid outing against the Rays in July (5.2 IP, two runs, six Ks).
Bradley is suffering through quite a rough patch, posting a 7.75 ERA over his past seven starts. But six of those games came against teams in playoff position, and they’re the ones who’ve hit him hardest.
One day after Rodriguez’s strong start against the Rays, Bradley followed up with a clean outing against the Blue Jays: 6.0 innings of scoreless ball with two hits and seven strikeouts.
The under is 80-67-7 (54.4%) in Rays games this year, which is the fifth-highest rate in baseball.
On Toronto’s side, the under is 41-36-2 (53.3%) when the Jays are on the road.
Key stat: Over Tampa Bay’s past 15 games, the average total is just 5.1 runs.
Quick picks
Bradley over 5.5 Ks (+104): Toronto was flailing all over the place yesterday, striking out 11 times while mustering just five hits (all singles).
Bradley has 18 Ks over 17.0 innings against the Jays dating back to last season. He’s cashed this over in two of those three outings. His impressive K rate (26.8%, 78th percentile) results from an upper-90s fastball teeing up a trio of secondary pitches that all have whiff rates above 30.0%.
On the season, Bradley has six-plus Ks in 15 of 23 starts.
A lot of playoff-bound teams have knocked Bradley around recently, as mentioned. But he still has a 9.3 K/9 over his past seven outings and has the stuff to dice up the Jays.
Picks made at 9:15 a.m. on 09/20/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.