After sustaining a 1-0 shutout loss last night, the Toronto Blue Jays are back at it today against the Tampa Bay Rays.
The pregame narrative: I was bullish on the Blue Jays to win last night, and that didn’t work out. Today, my best instinct is to take the under, which has been largely profitable in Rays games this year.
Check out my Blue Jays best bet vs. the Rays on Sept. 21.
Blue Jays best bet vs. Rays
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Best Bet: Under 8 runs (-143)
Every game is its own beast, but after both teams’ lifeless offensive efforts last night, I’m compelled to take the under.
Toronto has been shut out in two of its past three games, and only seven total runs have been scored in that span. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, has gone under this run total in 12 of its past 15 games.
Tonight’s pitching matchup between Taj Bradley and Yariel Rodriguez might not scream run suppression, but look closer. Rodriguez has only allowed two runs in his past three starts (12.1 innings), and he had a solid outing against the Rays in July (5.2 IP, two runs, six Ks).
Bradley is suffering through quite a rough patch, posting a 7.75 ERA over his past seven starts. But six of those games came against teams in playoff position, and they’re the ones who’ve hit him hardest.
One day after Rodriguez’s strong start against the Rays, Bradley followed up with a clean outing against the Blue Jays: 6.0 innings of scoreless ball with two hits and seven strikeouts.
The under is 80-67-7 (54.4%) in Rays games this year, which is the fifth-highest rate in baseball.
On Toronto’s side, the under is 41-36-2 (53.3%) when the Jays are on the road.
Key stat: Over Tampa Bay’s past 15 games, the average total is just 5.1 runs.
Pick made at 9:15 a.m. on 09/20/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.