On a bonus day of the MLB regular season, the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves meet for a win-and-in doubleheader at Truist Park.
The pregame narrative: Atlanta’s Spencer Schwellenbach starts opposite New York’s Tylor Megill in Game 1, and I’m liking a pair of Braves bats on plus-money bases props.
Check out my Mets vs. Braves prop picks for Sept. 30.
Mets vs. Braves prop picks
| NYM vs. ATL props | Odds | Bet now ⬇️ |
| Olson over 1.5 bases | +160 | Add to betslip |
| Ozuna over 1.5 bases | +106 | Add to betslip |
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Best Bet: Matt Olson over 1.5 bases (+160)
Olson doesn’t have great numbers against Megill, batting 3-for-14 (.214) with a home run and a pair of walks. But in his defence, Baseball Savant has him at a .298 xBA in those at-bats, so maybe the results should be a little better.
Either way, that’s not really what this is about.
Olson turned a corner in August and then turned up the heat even more in September. It took awhile in an otherwise underwhelming season, but he’s finally flashing the power that led to an MLB-high 54 homers last year.
Entering Aug. 1, Olson had a .226/.305/.411 slash line. Since then, he’s posted a .292/.392/.563 line. His 178 wRC+ in September ranks eighth in the majors.
For a cleanup hitter who’s found his stride, you can do a lot worse than a +160 price to collect multiple bases.
And although Olson’s numbers aren’t great against Megill, they aren’t terrible, either. A 16-plate-appearance sample at least tells us there should be minimal surprises.
Megill, a right-hander, has traditionally struggled against lefty bats like Olson. Throughout his career, Megill has allowed an .831 OPS to lefty hitters.
Key stat: Olson has gone over 1.5 bases in 12 of his past 19 games, posting a 1.169 OPS in that span.
Quick pick
Marcell Ozuna over 1.5 bases (+105): Ozuna is the opposite case compared to Olson. Fantastic numbers against Megill and less-fantastic numbers recently.
The all-star designated hitter is 6-for-12 with two homers and a double against Megill.
When the Braves last faced Megill, on July 27, Ozuna and Olson hit back-to-back HRs off him in the fourth inning.
Ozuna hasn’t had the best month from a power perspective, as he’s slugging just .407. But his .304/.381/.552 slash line on the season is still one of the best in the league.
Depending on how you want to warp the sample size, you can look at Ozuna through a rosier or gloomier light. He’s hitless in three straight games but has still gone over 1.5 bases in six of his past 10.
Picks made at 9:50 a.m. ET 09/30/2024.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.