The first of two Monday Night Football matchups this week pits the Tennessee Titans against the Miami Dolphins.
The pregame narrative: With just a 37-point projected total in this matchup, I’m wary of going too big with my prop bets. I like a pair of running backs, De’Von Achane and Tyjae Spears, to clear their receiving yardage totals.
Check out my Titans vs. Dolphins prop picks for Sept. 30.
Titans vs. Dolphins prop picks
Full Titans vs. Dolphins betting markets: Click Here
Best Bet: Achane over 24.5 receiving yards (+100)
Achane is exactly the type of player Miami quarterback Tyler Huntley should be leaning on in his first start for the Dolphins.
With Achane, Huntley has a speedy, sure-handed weapon coming out of the backfield who knows how to handle a steady workload in the passing game.
Through three games, Achane has caught 17 of 19 targets for 173 yards and a score. He’s been targeted on more than a third of his routes, which is a really impressive share.
Huntley loves to scramble, which means he doesn’t profile as an ideal quarterback for RB receiving props. But a running back did exceed 25 receiving yards in each of his past two starts (Jan. 6, 2024; Jan. 15, 2023).
Miami’s offence would be best served to get the ball out quickly and let its lightning-quick playmakers get to work.
The Titans have allowed 38.3 receiving yards per game to opposing tailbacks, and one RB has cashed this bet against them in back-to-back weeks.
Key stat: Achane has 25-plus receiving yards in all three games, averaging 57.7 YPG as a pass-catcher.
Quick pick
Spears over 12.5 receiving yards (-113): Spears has caught every ball thrown his way this season, and it’s my humble opinion that he deserves more touches.
The second-year back has 10 catches for 76 yards through three games. After finishing just shy of this total in Weeks 1 and 2 — with exactly 11 yards in both of those games — Spears went off last Sunday.
Spears caught four passes for 54 yards last week. He only ran 12 routes, so Titans QB Will Levis was clearly keyed on Spears when he was on the field.
Miami has allowed 6.9 net yards per pass attempt, which ranks 26th in the NFL.
Picks made at 2:15 p.m. ET 09/29/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.