The New York Yankees, who are prominent favourites to win the American League, start their playoff journey tonight at home against the Kansas City Royals.
The pregame narrative: Gerrit Cole is on the mound for the Yankees, which gives me confidence that the home team will win. This +280 same-game parlay also features prop bets on Cole and Bobby Witt Jr.
Check out my Royals vs. Yankees predictions for Game 1 of their ALDS matchup on Oct. 5.
Royals vs. Yankees SGP predictions
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Parlay: Yankees moneyline + Cole over 5.5 strikeouts + Witt to record a hit (+280)
Yankees moneyline (-205): The Yankees are the best the AL has to offer.
The odds speak for themselves, as New York is a staggering +115 favourite to win the pennant before the division series even begins. And keep in mind that the Yankees posted AL-best totals in wins (94) and run differential (+147).
Kansas City had a +91 run differential, which is still strong … but also 56 runs worse than what New York accomplished.
During the regular season, the Yankees went 5-2 against the Royals — and that was without KC ever facing Cole.
The reigning AL Cy Young winner turned things around after a couple of shaky starts, and New York won 10 of his final 15 outings this year.
SGP legs
Cole over 5.5 strikeouts (-122): The Royals had one of the lowest K rates in the majors this year. But that doesn’t faze me (or Cole, I assume).
In this matchup, Cole has won over and over again. He’s racked up 53 Ks against the current Royals lineup in just 157 plate appearances, which equates to a 33.8% K rate.
If that was Cole’s season-long strikeout rate, it would rank in the 96th percentile of the majors.
Cole isn’t at the peak of his strikeout powers, but he’s still fanning more than a batter per inning. He hit this over in 10 of his past 15 starts, posting a 9.7 K/9 in that span.
Add that to his exceptional numbers against KC and you’ve got the recipe for a high-strikeout performance.
Witt to record a hit (-265): Witt is 2-for-6 against Cole, which is solid enough, but this pick isn’t really about that matchup.
Frankly, Witt is a reasonable pick to record a hit against anybody. He won the batting title this year (.332 BA) and had a hit in 128 of 161 games (79.5%).
The superstar shortstop comes by it honestly, as his xBA (.321) was the highest in the majors, per Baseball Savant.
He walks at a league-average rate, rarely strikes out and has some of the highest-quality contact in the league. One hit from Witt is not much to ask for.
Picks made at 11:05 a.m. on 10/05/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.