Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

Tigers vs. Guardians ALDS Game 5 predictions: Bet on Skubal, Detroit on F5 moneyline

Knotted at two games apiece, the Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers will play for a spot in the ALCS on Saturday at Progressive Field.

The pregame narrative: Tarik Skubal will get the ball for Detroit on normal rest, while Cleveland hasn’t decided on its starter (as of this writing). With an elite pitcher on the mound, I’m targeting a pair of F5 wagers.

Check out my Tigers vs. Guardians predictions for Game 5 of their ALDS matchup on Oct. 12.

Tigers vs. Guardians predictions

Full MLB postseason betting markets: Click here

Best Bet: Tigers tie no bet – first five innings (-150)

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Betting against Tarik Skubal is never fun and rarely advisable. And I’m not going to do it with Detroit’s season on the line.

This is a steep price to pay, but I’d say it’s worth it. Detroit is 8-0-3 on the F5 moneyline in Skubal’s past 11 starts.

And Skubal has been central to that early-game success.

The AL-Cy-Young-to-be has a 1.57 ERA and a 10.5 K/9 in that span. Detroit has led at the F5 mark in each of his past five starts, so betting on the Tigers to lead at the halfway mark is reasonable, too.

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I prefer the safety of the tie-no-bet market because the Guardians likely have some stellar pitching lined up, too.

Though it hasn’t been announced, Matthew Boyd should factor into Game 5 as either a starter or bulk reliever. And Friday’s rest day means the talented Cleveland bullpen, which had the lowest post-all-star ERA in the majors (2.50), should be at full strength.

Still, Skubal is the best possible guy to have on the mound in a winner-take-all game. He blanked the Guardians over 7.0 innings of three-hit ball in Game 2, and he can do it again.

Key stat: Detroit is 20-6-7 on the F5 moneyline in Skubal’s outings this year (regular season and playoffs included).

Quick pick

Under 3.5 runs – first five innings (-148): Here’s another bet with a lot of extra juice. But also some compelling trends.

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Skubal is on a 24.1-inning scoreless streak that dates back to Sept. 18. He’s also been a menace against the Guardians, allowing two runs over 20.0 innings (all on the road) since August of last season.

Whether or not Boyd starts, I expect him to factor into Saturday’s game. He went toe-to-toe with Skubal in Game 2, keeping Detroit scoreless over 4.2 innings before turning things over to the bullpen.

Two games in this ALDS matchup went under 3.5 runs at the F5 mark, and another finished with exactly four runs (thanks to a pair scored in the fifth).

Expect pitching to overpower hitting in the series clincher.

Picks made at 2:12 p.m. ET 10/11/2024.

College football Week 7 picks and predictions: NCAAF best bets on Ohio State vs. Oregon, Tre Harris, Vanderbilt

Last weekend was a college football masterclass, and there are some matchups this Saturday that should keep the good times rolling.

The pregame narrative: My best bet is on the game of the week, No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Oregon. I also have a prop bet from the No. 9 Ole Miss vs. No. 13 LSU matchup, as well as an ATS pick in favour of Vanderbilt after a huge upset last Saturday.

Check out the best college football Week 7 picks for the action on Oct. 12.

College football Week 7 picks

Click linked odds to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

NCAAF Week 7 picks	Odds	Bet now ⬇️
Ohio State/Oregon over 53.5 pts	-112	Add to betslip
Tre Harris over 89.5 rec. yards	-122	Add to betslip
Vanderbilt +13.5	-118	Add to betslip

Go to full college football betting markets.

Best Bet: Ohio State/Oregon over 53.5 points (-112)

If both offences are firing on Saturday night, this is a number they can definitely clear.

Ohio State has been beating up on lesser opponents through five games, averaging 46.0 points (third in the NCAA) along the way. Oregon isn’t quite in that stratosphere but is still scoring at a 35.0 PPG clip (22nd in the NCAA).

There are a lot of ways to speak kindly of the Buckeyes’ offence. They have …

A veteran quarterback averaging 9.6 yards/attempt on a 71.5% completion rate
Two running backs averaging more than 7.5 yards/rush
A receiver with a first-round draft grade (and two more that will likely have first-round grades in ’26 and ’27)

The over is 3-2 in Buckeyes games so far, but they haven’t been pushed by an opposing offence. Oregon should be able to change that.

After a disconcerting season opener against Idaho, the Ducks have rebounded to score 30-plus points in four straight games. Maybe transfer quarterback Dillon Gabriel needed some time to settle in.

Gabriel’s passing volume is down since the Idaho game, but Oregon’s run game has stepped up to create a more balanced attack. In their past four games, the Ducks are averaging 5.1 yards/rush with eight scores.

Of the two teams, only Oregon has faced another reputable offence so far, courtesy of No. 17 Boise State. In that matchup in Eugene, the Ducks won a barn-burner, 37-34.

Key stat: Ohio State has scored 35-plus points in all five games and cleared this line once on its own (a 56-0 win over Western Michigan).

Quick picks

Tre Harris over 89.5 receiving yards (-122): Last year’s Ole Miss/LSU matchup was an instant classic, featuring 104 points and 1,343 total yards.

Those numbers aren’t typos — that’s just college football at its finest.

Some contributing players from both sides have moved on, but two central characters remain on the Rebels’ side: QB Jaxson Dart and WR Tre Harris.

That tandem linked up for eight catches, 153 yards and the winning score against LSU a season ago. And they’ve been dynamite this year, too.

Harris leads the nation with 885 receiving yards, cashing this bet in five of six games. He’s yet to fall below 80 yards, and I wouldn’t dream of fading him this weekend.

Vanderbilt +13.5 (-118): Vanderbilt knocked off then-No. 1 Alabama last week, after which a bunch of students marched the goalposts down Broadway and deposited them in the Cumberland River. As they should.

I mention that to say that this week’s road game against Kentucky is a readymade hangover game. But if I can back the Commodores while banking nearly two touchdowns, I’ll happily do it.

Vandy is 4-1 ATS this year and has covered this number in all five games. That includes losing by a field goal on the road against No. 21 Missouri and beating Virginia Tech outright as a 13-point underdog.

Kentucky did almost upset Georgia, but it has only covered this number once in its past four games.

NCAA picks made at 11:30 a.m. on 10/11/2024.

Padres vs. Dodgers Game 5 same-game parlay predictions: Ride with Betts, Tatis in +370 SGP

The Los Angeles Dodgers face the San Diego Padres in an NLDS winner-take-all matchup tonight.

The pregame narrative: There’s been no shortage of offence in this all-NL West battle, and I’ve added the over on an alt total to my same-game parlay for Friday. This +370 ticket also features Fernando Tatis Jr., Mookie Betts and Yoshinobu Yamamoto in various prop markets.

Check out my Padres vs. Dodgers predictions for Game 5 of their NLDS matchup on Oct. 11.

Padres vs. Dodgers SGP predictions

Full MLB postseason betting markets: Click here

Parlay: Over 6.5 runs + Yamamoto under 4.5 strikeouts + Tatis over 0.5 runs + Betts over 0.5 hits (+370)

Over 6.5 runs (-215): By now, it should be clear that the offensive firepower in this series outshines the pitching.

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Even though the Padres got shut out in Game 4, the Dodgers carried the game past this total in an 8-0 win. Eight of the past nine head-to-head matchups between these teams went over 6.5 runs, including every game in this series.

Through the entire season, the Padres and Dodgers have averaged 9.5 total runs across 17 head-to-head games.

Yu Darvish, who starts for the Padres, has great numbers against the Dodgers this year. But you never know when L.A.’s stellar offence (No. 2 in scoring and No. 1 in OPS this year) will break out.

As for San Diego’s offence, the lineup ranked in the top five for runs and OPS after the all-star break. So you know this group knows how to mash.

SGP legs

Yamamoto under 4.5 Ks (-220): Yamamoto’s first MLB postseason start didn’t go so well.

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In Game 1 of this series, he allowed five runs on five hits and a pair of walks in just 3.0 innings.

It would’ve been a tough sell to bet this line in the regular season when the former NPB star was averaging 5.8 Ks per outing. But everything changes in the postseason — especially with a rested bullpen coming out of an off-day.

The Padres had the lowest K rate in the majors this year (17.6%). Even if Yamamoto doesn’t get a quick hook, San Diego won’t be an easy bunch to strike out.

Tatis over 0.5 runs (+105): Tatis didn’t score last game, but he did extend his extra-base-hit streak.

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The superstar outfielder now has at least one extra-base hit in all four NLDS games, as well as five of six playoff matchups.

He’s 11-for-22 with a 1.759 OPS and eight runs in the postseason.

San Diego’s No. 2 hitter is in a prime spot from which to score. And his 15 times on base in just six games means he’s giving himself plenty of chances to do just that.

Tatis is 3-for-3 with a double and a walk against Yamamoto.

Betts over 0.5 hits (-235): After six consecutive hitless postseason games dating back to 2022, Betts broke out of a contrived funk in Game 3.

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Suddenly, he’s homered in back-to-back games and has four hits in that span. And it’d actually be a three-game homer streak had Jurickson Profar not robbed one in Game 2.

Betts is only 8-for-43 (.186) against Darvish, but I still like that he’s seen plenty of the San Diego starter.

This season, Betts has a hit in 85 of 120 games (70.8%).

Picks made at 9:20 a.m. on 10/11/24.

Best NFL Week 6 prop bets: Bet on Jahmyr Gibbs, Jayden Daniels in plus matchups

I’m taking the over on yardage props for one quarterback, one receiver and one running back in Week 6.

The pregame narrative: Jayden Daniels has a very attainable passing yards line against the Baltimore Ravens, who’ve struggled to contain opposing offences through the air. I’m also looking for A.J. Brown to shine in his return from injury and for Jahmyr Gibbs to feast in a plus matchup.

Check out the best NFL Week 6 prop bets for the upcoming games.

NFL Week 6 prop bets

Go to full NFL Week 6 betting markets.

Best bet: Daniels over 225.5 passing yards (-113)

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For my money, Commanders vs. Ravens is the game of the week this Sunday. And it’s a great opportunity for Daniels to make his mark with reigning MVP Lamar Jackson standing on the other sideline.

Daniels has cashed this bet in four consecutive games and is throwing for 227.0 pass yards per game.

The Ravens have established a reputation as a tough defence, but that hasn’t held up on the passing side so far. Baltimore has allowed the second-most passing yards per game (280.2).

A big chunk of that came from Joe Burrow and the Bengals last week, as Burrow torched his division rival for 392 yards and five scores. I’m not saying that Daniels has that in his bag, but he doesn’t need to be anywhere near 300 yards to clear this total with ease.

Daniels has the highest completion rate in the NFL (77.1%), which is certainly an encouraging stat for this pick.

And although he’s not airing it out constantly, Daniels’ exceptional efficiency has led to 7.5 net yards per attempt (the NFL average is 6.1).

Baltimore might not feel like a plus matchup for opposing offences. But for opposing quarterbacks, it is.

Key stat: The Ravens have allowed four of five opposing QBs to finish with 275-plus passing yards.

Quick picks

Gibbs over 58.5 rushing yards (-114): Gibbs is in a timeshare with David Montgomery in the Lions’ backfield, but this is a timeshare-sized line. And it comes in an exceptional matchup.

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The Cowboys’ rush defence ranks dead last in EPA per play while allowing the fourth-highest success rate, per RBSDM.com. Other run-happy teams like the Ravens and Saints have already steamrolled Dallas, combining for 464 yards on the ground.

Gibbs has averaged 13.5 carries per week, never going below 11 or above 16. So his ceiling as a volume runner might not be sky-high, but the floor is in a good spot.

Entering Sunday, Gibbs has rushed for 75-plus yards in three consecutive games.

Brown over 69.5 receiving yards (-113): This might be the lowest yardage line Brown sees the rest of the season, and I’m eager to jump on it.

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Brown was a full participant in practice Wednesday, which is a great sign for his prospects of playing this week. He hasn’t been on the field since Week 1, when he racked up 119 yards on five catches against Jaire Alexander and the Packers.

Since joining the Eagles in 2022, Brown has done nothing but produce. He’s averaging 87.7 receiving yards per game with Philly, hitting the over on this line in 21 of 35 regular season games.

Cleveland has a reputable pass defence, but at this number, I’d still bet on AJB to make a triumphant return.

Picks made at 2:15 p.m. ET on 10/10/2024.

Best MLB playoff prop bets Oct. 10: Fade Aaron Judge vs. Royals

Both ALDS matchups could wrap up tonight, as we’ll see a pair of Game 4s played in Detroit and Kansas City.

The pregame narrative: In the first matchup, I like Tigers outfielder Kerry Carpenter to take advantage of his notable righty/lefty platoon split. Later on, I’m tailing one Yankees player (Gerrit Cole) and fading another (Aaron Judge).

Check out the best MLB playoff prop bets for Oct. 10.

MLB prop bets

MLB Markets: Click Here | MLB Stats: Click Here

Best bet: Cole over 4.5 outs (+100)

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When the playoffs roll around, every MLB team operates with a much shorter leash on its starting pitchers. You have to be aware of that when playing any pitching props.

This line would look laughably low for Cole during the regular season, but that only illustrates my point about how things are different in October. Even so, I’m on the over for a few reasons.

The first is that Cole almost went over the mark last time out against the Royals despite a rocky outing (5.0 innings, seven hits, four runs, four Ks). Cole clearly didn’t have his best stuff but he still almost made it happen.

Over the final two months of the regular season, we saw Cole flash his best stuff several times. He posted a 2.25 ERA and a .503 opponent OPS over his final 10 regular season outings

Cole’s 9.4 K/9 this year is his lowest since 2017 (back when he was in Pittsburgh), but it’s still a solid mark. If he makes it through five innings tonight, I think he can squeeze out five Ks, too.

The Royals had the third-lowest K rate in the majors this year, but Cole hasn’t typically struggled to strike them out.

In 180 plate appearances against the Royals’ current lineup, Cole has tallied 57 strikeouts (31.7% K rate).

Key stat: Cole has averaged 5.7 Ks per start this year and cashed this line in 12 of 18 outings.

Quick picks

Carpenter over 1.5 bases (+170): Carpenter was one of MLB’s top hitters against right-handed pitching this season, and with that in mind, this seems like a great price to back him.

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In his young career, Carpenter’s OPS against righties (.897) is more than 300 points better than his mark against lefties (.588). And he’s been particularly menacing against righties this year.

Carpenter batted .305 with a .994 OPS against right-handers during the regular season, which equated to a 176 wRC+. Facing righties, that was the fifth-highest wRC+ in the majors (ahead of players like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Gunnar Henderson and Yordan Alvarez).

In the postseason, Carpenter hasn’t gone over 1.5 bases in any of his three starts. But he did clobber an improbable pinch-hit homer in ALDS Game 2, taking Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase deep for the win.

Judge under 1.5 bases (-129): For the second time in three seasons, Judge paced the majors in home runs, OPS and some other highly impressive offensive stats. He’s not a guy you want to fade on this market very often.

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I’ll do it tonight though as Judge faces Royals starter Michael Wacha, who has somehow had the mighty slugger’s number in the past. Against Wacha, Judge is 1-for-20 with 12 strikeouts and three walks.

So far in this series, Judge is 1-for-11 with five Ks.

Facing Wacha in one of the least homer-friendly parks in the league, I expect Judge to fall silent once again.

Picks made at 11:45 a.m. ET on 10/10/2024.

Guardians vs. Tigers Game 4 same-game parlay predictions: Back Carpenter, Bibee in +255 SGP

The Detroit Tigers are on the brink of returning to the ALCS for the first time since 2013, and they can punch their ticket at home tonight against the Cleveland Guardians.

The pregame narrative: Rather than picking a side in my same-game parlay for ALDS Game 4, I’m backing two player props and a teased-up under. This +255 ticket features Detroit’s Kerry Carpenter and Cleveland’s Tanner Bibee.

Check out my Guardians vs. Tigers predictions for Game 4 of their ALDS matchup on Oct. 10.

Guardians vs. Tigers SGP predictions

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Parlay: Bibee over 3.5 strikeouts + Carpenter over 0.5 hits + Under 7.5 runs (+255)

Bibee over 3.5 Ks (-345): Pitching props can be fickle in the postseason. Especially for teams on the brink of elimination.

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If Bibee gets in some hot water tonight, Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt will almost certainly have a quick hook to get to the Guardians’ stellar bullpen. I was staring down Bibee over 5.5 Ks (+145) as a standard wager, but I just can’t stomach it.

This dumbed-down line should be within reach, though. Bibee struck out six Tigers over 4.2 innings in the series opener.

The right-hander has 25 Ks over 26.2 innings against Detroit this year, going over 3.5 strikeouts in four of those five starts.

So again, an abbreviated start is a risk with Bibee tonight. But against a Detroit team that had the eighth-highest K rate in the majors this year, I still expect him to get this done.

SGP legs

Carpenter over 0.5 hits (-150): If every pitcher in the world was right-handed, would Carpenter be a household name?

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It’s not as crazy as it sounds. Carpenter is batting .305 with a .994 OPS against righties this year. His 176 wRC+ in that matchup puts him just below Bobby Witt Jr. and just above Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

In other words, he’s sitting with some pretty good company.

Carpenter is just 3-for-13 (.231) in the postseason so far, but he did have one of the most unlikely hits of all, bashing a game-winning homer in ALDS Game 2 with the world’s best closer, Emmanuel Clase, on the mound.

During the regular season, Carpenter batted .284 and cashed this bet in 48 of 73 starts (65.8%).

Under 7.5 runs (-182): Unders are hot in this matchup, so I’ll stick with that trend — even though Detroit’s pitching plans are a mystery as of this writing.

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Tarik Skubal won’t be an option (at least not to start), but recent Tigers/Guardians games have been offensively futile with or without him.

This under has cashed in six of their past seven meetings — including all three playoff games — with an average of 5.1 total runs in that span.

Also, the under is 44-35-3 (55.7%) in Detroit home games this year.

Picks made at 9:05 a.m. on 10/10/24.

NFL Week 6 underdog picks and predictions: Ride with Broncos over Chargers, Jaguars to win London game

I’m done picking the Carolina Panthers (at least for now). But I’m back with some other NFL underdog predictions for Week 6.

The pregame narrative: This week’s London game pits the Chicago Bears against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and I’m on the Jags to win. Later on Sunday, look for the Denver Broncos to beat the Los Angeles Chargers in an all-AFC West clash.

Check out how these NFL Week 6 underdog picks.

NFL Week 6 underdog picks

Go to full NFL Week 6 betting markets.

Best bet: Broncos moneyline (+137)

I’m not exactly a Bo Nix believer, but I can’t ignore how he and the Broncos have turned things around recently.

Denver has won three games in a row after losing in Weeks 1 and 2. And the statistical turnaround from Nix is a notable piece of that:

Weeks 1-2: 59.7% completion rate, 0 TDs, 4 INTs, 51.0 passer rating
Weeks 3-5: 63.6% completion rate, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, 89.3 passer rating

The Broncos have scored 70 points over the past three weeks to beat the Buccaneers and Jets on road before dominating the Raiders at home this past Sunday. Two of those three are quality wins (sorry, Raiders).

Nobody is lining up to give Nix the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. But he’s playing competent football now, which is all that’s needed to support a strong defence and give Denver a chance to win.

Denver’s defence is tied for second in the NFL in EPA per play. The Broncos also allow the third-lowest rush success rate (33.9%), per RBSDM.com.

The Los Angeles Chargers also have a stellar defence, sharing that No. 2 spot in EPA per play. But it’s too early to know whether Jim Harbaugh’s squad is actually good.

L.A. beat the lowly Raiders in Week 1 and the even lowlier Panthers in Week 2. Since then, the Chargers went 0-2 with 20 total points scored against the Steelers and Chiefs.

Nix seems to be on the right side of the rookie QB learning curve, and I think his Broncos have a shot at pulling off the home upset.

Key stat: Denver already has two outright wins as an underdog this season.

Week 6 upset predictions

Jaguars moneyline (+115): Chicago made me look foolish last week, dusting one of my upset picks (Carolina Panthers) in a 26-point win. I’m going to try again as the Bears fly across the pond for a London game.

This technically counts as a home game on the Bears’ schedule, funnily enough. Everyone knows that London is the adopted home of the Jaguars.

Jacksonville has played 11 games in London since 2013, which is by far the most of any team (Miami is next with five). The Jaguars beat the Falcons and Bills out there last year and have now gone 5-1 in London games since 2018.

Chicago has a stellar defence, but the team is 0-2 outside of Soldier Field so far. Jacksonville exploded for 37 points last week to secure its first win and should feel right at home inside Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

Picks made at 4:10 p.m. ET on 10/08/2024.

NFL Week 6 underdog picks and predictions: Ride with Broncos over Chargers, Jaguars to win London game

I’m done picking the Carolina Panthers (at least for now). But I’m back with some other NFL underdog predictions for Week 6.

The pregame narrative: This week’s London game pits the Chicago Bears against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and I’m on the Jags to win. Later on Sunday, look for the Denver Broncos to beat the Los Angeles Chargers in an all-AFC West clash.

Check out how these NFL Week 6 underdog picks.

NFL Week 6 underdog picks

Go to full NFL Week 6 betting markets.

Best bet: Broncos moneyline (+138)

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I’m not exactly a Bo Nix believer, but I can’t ignore how he and the Broncos have turned things around recently.

Denver has won three games in a row after losing in Weeks 1 and 2. And the statistical turnaround from Nix is a notable piece of that:

Weeks 1-2: 59.7% completion rate, 0 TDs, 4 INTs, 51.0 passer rating
Weeks 3-5: 63.6% completion rate, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, 89.3 passer rating

The Broncos have scored 70 points over the past three weeks to beat the Buccaneers and Jets on road before dominating the Raiders at home this past Sunday. Two of those three are quality wins (sorry, Raiders).

Nobody is lining up to give Nix the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. But he’s playing competent football now, which is all that’s needed to support a strong defence and give Denver a chance to win.

Denver’s defence is tied for second in the NFL in EPA per play. The Broncos also allow the third-lowest rush success rate (33.9%), per RBSDM.com.

The Los Angeles Chargers also have a stellar defence, sharing that No. 2 spot in EPA per play. But it’s too early to know whether Jim Harbaugh’s squad is actually good.

L.A. beat the lowly Raiders in Week 1 and the even lowlier Panthers in Week 2. Since then, the Chargers went 0-2 with 20 total points scored against the Steelers and Chiefs.

Nix seems to be on the right side of the rookie QB learning curve, and I think his Broncos have a shot at pulling off the home upset.

Key stat: Denver already has two outright wins as an underdog this season.

Week 6 upset predictions

Jaguars moneyline (+118): Chicago made me look foolish last week, dusting one of my upset picks (Carolina Panthers) in a 26-point win. I’m going to try again as the Bears fly across the pond for a London game.

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This technically counts as a home game on the Bears’ schedule, funnily enough. Everyone knows that London is the adopted home of the Jaguars.

Jacksonville has played 11 games in London since 2013, which is by far the most of any team (Miami is next with five). The Jaguars beat the Falcons and Bills out there last year and have now gone 5-1 in London games since 2018.

Chicago has a stellar defence, but the team is 0-2 outside of Soldier Field so far. Jacksonville exploded for 37 points last week to secure its first win and should feel right at home inside Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

Picks made at 3:10 p.m. ET on 10/08/2024.

Dodgers vs. Padres Game 3 same-game parlay predictions: Back Ohtani but bet on San Diego to win

The all-SoCal NLDS matchup shifts to San Diego as the Padres host the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The pregame narrative: With Michael King on the mound, I like the Padres’ chances of sending the home crowd happy. I’m also fading Walker Buehler while backing Shohei Ohtani and Fernando Tatis Jr. on the prop market in this +425 SGP.

Check out my Dodgers vs. Padres predictions for Game 3 of their NLDS matchup on Oct. 8.

Dodgers vs. Padres SGP predictions

Full MLB postseason betting markets: Click here

Parlay: Padres moneyline + Buehler under 3.5 strikeouts + Ohtani over 0.5 hits + Tatis over 0.5 runs (+425)

Padres moneyline (-157): The Padres went 19-12 this year with King on the mound, which equates to a 99-win pace. That’s great, but it probably still undersells how effective King has been lately.

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In 10 starts since Aug. 1, King has a 1.92 ERA and an 11.0 K/9. That includes a start against the Dodgers to close out the regular season in which he allowed just one unearned run over 5.0 innings in a win.

San Diego is 9-6 against L.A. this year and a perfect 3-0 when King starts.

Buehler was solid in his most recent start against the Padres, but I’m not very moved. He has a 4.93 ERA and an .831 opponent OPS since coming off the injured list in August.

SGP legs

Buehler under 3.5 Ks (-235): Going deeper on Buehler, he’s not in a strong position to pile up strikeouts.

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The Padres had the lowest K rate in the majors this season (17.6%), almost two full percentage points below any other club. And Buehler, with a 7.6 K/9 in 2024, doesn’t profile as a guy who can successfully buck that trend.

After all, Buehler has just three Ks over 8.1 innings against San Diego this year.

Ohtani over 0.5 hits (-220): King looks unhittable to a lot of guys right now, but Ohtani isn’t one of them.

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The soon-to-be NL MVP is 6-for-14 with three homers and two doubles in this head-to-head matchup.

Given all that power production, I don’t mind Ohtani over 1.5 bases (+100) as a straight wager. But in a parlay, I’ll opt for this safer bet instead.

Ohtani posted a career-best .310 batting average this season, collecting at least one hit in 116 of 159 games (73.0%).

Tatis over 0.5 runs (-120): Tatis is off to a blazing start in the postseason, slashing .643/.722/1.429 with five extra-base hits and seven runs scored. He’s cashed this prop in all four games.

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Against Buehler, who isn’t pitching anywhere near his peak this year, I think Tatis can do more damage tonight.

These two have seen plenty of each other, and Tatis is 9-for-29 (.310) with four homers in this head-to-head matchup.

The last time Tatis faced Buehler at Petco Park, he bashed a first-inning home run.

Picks made at 12:50 p.m. on 10/08/24.

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Phillies vs. Mets NLDS Game 3 picks: Bet on Kyle Schwarber and the over

Tonight, the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets meet for Game 3 of the NLDS as the series shifts to Queens.

The pregame narrative: Kyle Schwarber opened this series with a bang and looks like a great value to score a run tonight at Citi Field. I’m also backing the over on a modest game total.

Check out my Phillies vs. Mets picks for Game 3 of their NLDS matchup on Oct. 8.

Phillies vs. Mets picks

Full MLB postseason betting markets: Click here

Best Bet: Schwarber over 0.5 runs (+105)

Schwarber homered in the very first inning of this series, reminding everyone about the outsized power he wields from the leadoff spot.

You can’t bank on someone cashing a run prop all on their own, though, so this pick is fuelled by what I expect to be a team effort from the Phillies.

After Schwarber, Philly typically follows with Trea Turner, Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos (in that order). And all three of those guys have strong numbers against Mets starter Sean Manaea:

Turner: 5-for-16, HR
Harper: 4-for-11, HR, two 2B
Castellanos: 6-for-16, 3 HR, 2B

If Schwarber can find a way on base, I like the chances that someone behind him can bring him around.

Lefty-on-lefty matchups are typically undesirable for hitters, but Schwarber bucks that trend. He batted .300 with a .407 on-base percentage against LHPs this season.

And this prop doesn’t even require Schwarber to get on with a hit. The NL walks leader (106) can use his watchful eye to reach base, too.

Schwarber is 2-for-6 with a home run against Manaea.

Key stat: During the regular season, Schwarber scored in 79 of 150 games (52.7%).

Quick pick

Over 7 runs (-112): Given that I like an offensive-minded player prop as my best bet, it shouldn’t be a surprise that I’m riding with the over.

The Phillies and Mets have cleared this total in 12 of their 15 matchups — including both playoff games — while averaging 9.9 total runs.

Against New York this season, Nola has been both excellent (four-hit shutout) and atrocious (six runs over 4.1 innings). The Mets have seen him a ton over the years and accrued a .444 SLG against him in 243 at-bats, so I think they can chip in at least a couple of runs.

As for the Phillies’ offence, they’ve scored 10 runs in 16.2 innings against Manaea this year. All three of Manaea’s starts against Philly went over this run total.

Picks made at 11:15 a.m. ET 10/08/2024.