The Los Angeles Dodgers face the San Diego Padres in an NLDS winner-take-all matchup tonight.
The pregame narrative: There’s been no shortage of offence in this all-NL West battle, and I’ve added the over on an alt total to my same-game parlay for Friday. This +370 ticket also features Fernando Tatis Jr., Mookie Betts and Yoshinobu Yamamoto in various prop markets.
Check out my Padres vs. Dodgers predictions for Game 5 of their NLDS matchup on Oct. 11.
Padres vs. Dodgers SGP predictions
Full MLB postseason betting markets: Click here
Parlay: Over 6.5 runs + Yamamoto under 4.5 strikeouts + Tatis over 0.5 runs + Betts over 0.5 hits (+370)
Over 6.5 runs (-215): By now, it should be clear that the offensive firepower in this series outshines the pitching.
Even though the Padres got shut out in Game 4, the Dodgers carried the game past this total in an 8-0 win. Eight of the past nine head-to-head matchups between these teams went over 6.5 runs, including every game in this series.
Through the entire season, the Padres and Dodgers have averaged 9.5 total runs across 17 head-to-head games.
Yu Darvish, who starts for the Padres, has great numbers against the Dodgers this year. But you never know when L.A.’s stellar offence (No. 2 in scoring and No. 1 in OPS this year) will break out.
As for San Diego’s offence, the lineup ranked in the top five for runs and OPS after the all-star break. So you know this group knows how to mash.
SGP legs
Yamamoto under 4.5 Ks (-220): Yamamoto’s first MLB postseason start didn’t go so well.
In Game 1 of this series, he allowed five runs on five hits and a pair of walks in just 3.0 innings.
It would’ve been a tough sell to bet this line in the regular season when the former NPB star was averaging 5.8 Ks per outing. But everything changes in the postseason — especially with a rested bullpen coming out of an off-day.
The Padres had the lowest K rate in the majors this year (17.6%). Even if Yamamoto doesn’t get a quick hook, San Diego won’t be an easy bunch to strike out.
Tatis over 0.5 runs (+105): Tatis didn’t score last game, but he did extend his extra-base-hit streak.
The superstar outfielder now has at least one extra-base hit in all four NLDS games, as well as five of six playoff matchups.
He’s 11-for-22 with a 1.759 OPS and eight runs in the postseason.
San Diego’s No. 2 hitter is in a prime spot from which to score. And his 15 times on base in just six games means he’s giving himself plenty of chances to do just that.
Tatis is 3-for-3 with a double and a walk against Yamamoto.
Betts over 0.5 hits (-235): After six consecutive hitless postseason games dating back to 2022, Betts broke out of a contrived funk in Game 3.
Suddenly, he’s homered in back-to-back games and has four hits in that span. And it’d actually be a three-game homer streak had Jurickson Profar not robbed one in Game 2.
Betts is only 8-for-43 (.186) against Darvish, but I still like that he’s seen plenty of the San Diego starter.
This season, Betts has a hit in 85 of 120 games (70.8%).
Picks made at 9:20 a.m. on 10/11/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.