I’m done picking the Carolina Panthers (at least for now). But I’m back with some other NFL underdog predictions for Week 6.
The pregame narrative: This week’s London game pits the Chicago Bears against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and I’m on the Jags to win. Later on Sunday, look for the Denver Broncos to beat the Los Angeles Chargers in an all-AFC West clash.
Check out how these NFL Week 6 underdog picks.
NFL Week 6 underdog picks
Go to full NFL Week 6 betting markets.
Best bet: Broncos moneyline (+138)
I’m not exactly a Bo Nix believer, but I can’t ignore how he and the Broncos have turned things around recently.
Denver has won three games in a row after losing in Weeks 1 and 2. And the statistical turnaround from Nix is a notable piece of that:
- Weeks 1-2: 59.7% completion rate, 0 TDs, 4 INTs, 51.0 passer rating
- Weeks 3-5: 63.6% completion rate, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, 89.3 passer rating
The Broncos have scored 70 points over the past three weeks to beat the Buccaneers and Jets on road before dominating the Raiders at home this past Sunday. Two of those three are quality wins (sorry, Raiders).
Nobody is lining up to give Nix the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. But he’s playing competent football now, which is all that’s needed to support a strong defence and give Denver a chance to win.
Denver’s defence is tied for second in the NFL in EPA per play. The Broncos also allow the third-lowest rush success rate (33.9%), per RBSDM.com.
The Los Angeles Chargers also have a stellar defence, sharing that No. 2 spot in EPA per play. But it’s too early to know whether Jim Harbaugh’s squad is actually good.
L.A. beat the lowly Raiders in Week 1 and the even lowlier Panthers in Week 2. Since then, the Chargers went 0-2 with 20 total points scored against the Steelers and Chiefs.
Nix seems to be on the right side of the rookie QB learning curve, and I think his Broncos have a shot at pulling off the home upset.
Key stat: Denver already has two outright wins as an underdog this season.
Week 6 upset predictions
Jaguars moneyline (+118): Chicago made me look foolish last week, dusting one of my upset picks (Carolina Panthers) in a 26-point win. I’m going to try again as the Bears fly across the pond for a London game.
This technically counts as a home game on the Bears’ schedule, funnily enough. Everyone knows that London is the adopted home of the Jaguars.
Jacksonville has played 11 games in London since 2013, which is by far the most of any team (Miami is next with five). The Jaguars beat the Falcons and Bills out there last year and have now gone 5-1 in London games since 2018.
Chicago has a stellar defence, but the team is 0-2 outside of Soldier Field so far. Jacksonville exploded for 37 points last week to secure its first win and should feel right at home inside Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Picks made at 3:10 p.m. ET on 10/08/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.