Jordan Horrobin

Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.

Josh Allen Week 6 Monday Night Football props: Odds and best bet for Bills’ QB vs. Jets

Josh Allen props

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills look to stay atop the AFC East standings as they face the New York Jets on Monday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: Buffalo (3-2) is a game ahead of New York (2-3) and could put further distance between the teams in the Week 6 finale. Allen is 6-2 in this matchup since 2020, but his Bills have lost back-to-back road games against the Jets.

Check out our Josh Allen props, odds and best bet for Week 6 of Monday Night Football.

Josh Allen props

Click linked odds to add selection to your betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

Allen prop marketsBetting odds
Over 199.5 pass yards-120
Under 199.5 pass yards-109
Over 34.5 rushing yards-104
Under 34.5 rushing yards-125
Over 238.5. passing/rushing yards-113
Under 238.5 passing/rushing yards-115
Over 1.5 passing TDs+175
Under 1.5 passing TDs-240
Anytime TD scorer+143
Over 0.5 interceptions-129
Under 0.5 interceptions-103

NFL odds as of 12:10 p.m. ET on 10/14/2024.

Many folks who watched the Bills face the Houston Texans last week might’ve thought Allen suffered a concussion on a hit that caused his head to smack the turf.

Allen went to the sideline but only missed a few minutes of game time.

This week, the NFL and NFLPA issued a joint statement in approval of how the concussion protocol was handled. That’s an encouraging sign for the health situation of Allen, who was a full practice participant throughout the week.

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Allen’s availability isn’t in doubt, which is especially positive for a Bills squad that has other question marks on offence.

James Cook (toe) and Khalil Shakir (ankle) both logged limited practices on Saturday after missing practice earlier in the week. Cook is preparing to play, but both he and Shakir are officially listed as questionable.

Assuming Allen is actually healthy, he may need to shoulder even more of the offensive workload than usual with a pair of key contributors banged up.

Best Allen prop bet

Best Bet: Allen over 199.5 passing yards (-120)

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Traditionally, this is a number Allen has routinely cleared with ease.

Allen has averaged 250-plus pass yards per game in each of his past four seasons. Last year, he threw for 200+ yards in 14 of 19 games (playoffs included).

I’m skeptical about how effective Cook will be tonight, or at least how heavily involved he’ll be. So far, the Bills have run the ball on 49.8% of their plays, which is the seventh-most in the NFL.

That may need to change based on how Cook and/or Allen are feeling, health-wise.

Due to the run-heavy nature of the Bills’ offence, Allen has only cleared this passing yards prop in two of five starts. And the Jets are a challenging matchup for opposing QBs, as they’re allowing the second-fewest pass yards per game (136.6).

This is a perceived volume play, though, and I’m heartened by how Allen has put up yards against New York in the past.

Since 2021, Allen has averaged 247.7 pass yards/game against the Jets and cashed this prop in five of six matchups.

Pick made at 12:10 p.m. ET on 10/14/2024.

Bills vs. Jets Week 6 same-game parlay predictions: Target Kincaid, Hall in +600 SGP for MNF

Bills vs. Jets predictions

It’s an all-New York battle — taking place in New Jersey — to close out NFL Week 6 on Monday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: Fresh off the firing of head coach Robert Saleh, the New York Jets host the Buffalo Bills with a chance to draw even in the AFC East. I’m backing Buffalo on an alt spread, though, in a +600 SGP that also features Breece Hall and Dalton Kincaid.

Check out my Bills vs. Jets same-game parlay predictions for Week 6 below.

Bills vs. Jets same-game parlay predictions

Full NFL betting markets: Click here

Parlay: Bills +3.5 + Kincaid over 29.5 receiving yards + Hall over 49.5 rushing yards + Under 45.5 points (+600)

Bills +3.5 (-200): Buffalo is in a tough stretch of its season, playing on the road for a third straight week after losing in Baltimore and Houston. That’s why I want to buy some points rather than back the Bills straight up.

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I do still want in on the Bills’ side, though. They’re 6-2 against the Jets since 2020, and they covered this number in one of the two losses. New York is merely days removed from a coaching change and has had more travel in the past week (returning from London) than Buffalo has.

Though I doubt that Josh Allen is at full strength, he didn’t miss any practices in the run-up to the game. And James Cook is planning to play, which helps.

New York’s only wins of the season came against the Patriots and Titans, so I have no confidence that they can win by margin.

Other parlay picks

Kincaid over 29.5 receiving yards (-200): Khalil Shakir is questionable to play after logging just one practice at the end of the week. Even if he plays, it’s reasonable to believe he won’t be counted on to handle a full workload.

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Enter Kincaid.

After a curiously quiet Week 1, Kincaid has enjoyed a steady role in Buffalo’s offence. In each of the past four games, he has …

  • 4+ targets
  • 30+ receiving yards
  • 20.0% (or greater) target share

And as a rookie in 2023, Kincaid had four-plus catches in both games against the Jets.

Even if the Bills were fully healthy on offence, this is a yardage number I’d expect him to clear. But I’m particularly bullish based on the state of Buffalo’s offence.

Hall over 49.5 rushing yards (-180): FOX’s Jay Glazer reported this week that Jets interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich is committed to a “run-focused offence.” Time to see if that’s true.

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Hall has looked awful in back-to-back games, rushing for just 27 yards on 17 carries. Woof. But if New York is prepared to commit to its ground attack, we should expect quite a bit more from its top runner.

In Weeks 1-3, Hall surpassed the 50-yard marker in each game. He also torched Buffalo at home last season, going for 127 yards and a score on just 10 carries.

Buffalo ranks 31st in yards allowed per rush (5.2).

Under 45.5 points (-210): It’s a bit of a cliche to treat divisional matchups differently than the rest. But the Jets and Bills do tend to play low-scoring games, and the recent sample is large enough that I’m buying in.

Embed: #97353

Since 2020, seven of their eight head-to-head meetings fell below this number. The Bills and Jets combined for an average 39.5 points in those games (with one 62-point outlier mixed in).

The Jets have the No. 2 total defence in football, and each of their past four games has fallen below this total. As for Buffalo, the under is 3-0 in road games this season.

Picks made at 11:30 a.m. on 10/14/24.

Guardians vs. Yankees Game 1 same-game parlay predictions: Ride with Juan Soto, Lane Thomas in ALCS opener

Guardians vs. Yankees predictions

Tonight, the New York Yankees host the Cleveland Guardians to open the ALCS.

The pregame narrative: Neither lineup is on fire right now, but I still like their chances of collectively clearing a modest run total in Game 1. In addition to an alt total, my +240 same-game parlay features prop bets on Juan Soto and Lane Thomas.

Check out my Guardians vs. Yankees predictions for Game 1 of the ALCS on Oct. 14.

Guardians vs. Yankees SGP predictions

Full MLB postseason betting markets: Click here

Parlay: Over 6.5 runs + Soto over 0.5 runs + Thomas over 0.5 hits (+240)

Over 6.5 runs (-167): I backed the over as my best bet, but I’ll trim a run off the standard line to make this a safer pick for the parlay.

Embed: #97327

Against left-handed pitching this year, Cleveland finished seventh in SLG (.427) and eighth in wRC+ (114). So I think they’ll have a decent shot at putting up some runs against New York southpaw Carlos Rodon.

The Yankees’ offence wasn’t in its best form during the ALDS, but the Bronx Bombers have often shown out at home. The over is 46-35-2 (56.8%) at Yankee Stadium this year, per Team Rankings.

Four of six regular season matchups between these teams went over this number. The Guardians and Yankees combined to average 9.8 runs in those matchups.

SGP legs

Soto over 0.5 runs (-139): Soto only scored once in the ALDS, but it wasn’t for a lack of trying.

Embed: #97328

The AL runs leader reached base seven times in four games, but with a slumping Aaron Judge behind him, Soto struggled to make it around the diamond.

It’s difficult to envision an extended slump for Judge, and I do expect Soto to continue putting himself in a position to score.

The superstar outfielder has excellent numbers against Guardians starter Alex Cobb, batting 7-for-11 with two homers, a double and a walk.

Additionally, Soto has a .439 OBP in his career against righties. The opportunities will keep coming, and someone on the Yankees should be able to bring him around.

Thomas over 0.5 hits (-186): Fresh off the biggest hit of his life (I’m assuming), Thomas makes perfect sense in this SGP.

Embed: #97329

The former Blue Jays draftee smashed a grand slam off Cy-Young-to-be Tarik Skubal in the clinching game of the ALDS, which is a reminder of what Thomas can do against even the best lefty pitching on the planet.

Thomas will have the righty-on-lefty platoon advantage again tonight against Rodon. In his career, Thomas is batting .302 with an .880 OPS against lefties.

During the ALDS, Thomas cashed this bet in four of five games while going 6-for-19 (.316) at the plate.

Picks made at 9:20 a.m. on 10/14/24.

NFL Week 7 odds and betting lines: Chiefs host 49ers in Super Bowl rematch

NFL Week 7 odds

Monday Night Football doubleheader action is back this week to wrap up the NFL’s Week 7 schedule.

The latest: Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray will both be featured in Monday’s primetime action. On Sunday, the Detroit Lions face the Minnesota Vikings in a huge NFC North clash, while the Kansas City Chiefs host a Super Bowl LVIII rematch against the San Francisco 49ers.

Check out the latest NFL Week 7 odds below.

NFL Week 7 odds

Denver Broncos vs. New Orleans Saints

Embed: #97243

New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Embed: #97244

Seattle Seahawks vs. Atlanta Falcons

Embed: #97316

Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants

Embed: #97245

Houston Texans vs. Green Bay Packers

Embed: #97246

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns

Embed: #97247

Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings

Embed: #97248

Miami Dolphins vs. Indianapolis Colts

Embed: #97249

Tennessee Titans vs. Buffalo Bills

Embed: #97250

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Rams

Embed: #97251

Carolina Panthers vs. Washington Commanders

Embed: #97252

Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers

Embed: #97318

New York Jets vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Embed: #97253

Baltimore Ravens vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Embed: #97254

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Arizona Cardinals

Embed: #97255

Visit all of NorthStar Bets’ NFL markets. Click on game odds below to bet now.

Betting insights

  • This week’s UK matchup might be reserved for the hardcore, I’ll-watch-football-no-matter-what crowd. On one side, you have the Jaguars (1-5) fresh off a drubbing in London against the Bears. On the other side, you have the Patriots (1-5) who looked lost in Drake Maye’s debut.
  • Is this the week the Vikings finally go down? Minnesota is coming off the bye and playing at home, but here come the Lions. Detroit is 4-1 and has scored 40-plus points in back-to-back games. Last year, the Lions went 2-0 against the Vikings and covered as favourites in both matchups.
  • The Commanders entered last week’s matchup in Baltimore with the No. 1 scoring offence in the NFL, and Jayden Daniels put up another strong week. Now he’ll return home to face the Panthers, who’ve allowed more than 30 points to three of their first five opponents.
  • Some of the star talent from last year’s Super Bowl matchup will be on the field, but a lot of it won’t be, as Christian McCaffrey, Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice all remain sidelined. The Chiefs are unbeaten so far this year, but they’re just 1-3 ATS after the bye since 2021.
  • Baltimore is all the way back. After losing a pair of one-score games to open the season, the Ravens have won four in a row while averaging 33.5 PPG in that span. The Bucs are no strangers to scoring, though, as they put up a season-high 51 points this past week to mark a third straight game of 30 or more.

Guardians vs. Yankees ALCS Game 1 best bets: Take the over, count on New York to lead early

Guardians vs. Yankees best bets

The battle for the AL pennant begins on Monday night as the New York Yankees host the Cleveland Guardians.

The pregame narrative: In the regular season, the Yankees and Guardians combined for some decent offensive performances. That’s part of the reason I like the over in Game 1. I’m also siding with the Yankees to lead at the first-five-inning mark.

Check out my Guardians vs. Yankees best bets for Game 1 of their ALCS matchup on Oct. 14.

Guardians vs. Yankees best bets

Full MLB postseason betting markets: Click here

Best Bet: Over 7.5 runs (-106)

Carlos Rodon was all smiles when he struck out the side to begin his lone ALDS start against the Royals. But he didn’t have a lot to smile about after that.

The left-hander wound up allowing four runs on seven hits over just 3.2 innings.

Rodon had a solid regular season, posting a 3.96 ERA over 32 outings. But due to some wobbly outings — and more often, some great performances by the New York offence — this over cashed in 22 of his starts (68.8%).

Cleveland hasn’t faced Rodon this year, but the Guardians fared well against lefties as a whole.

Against all LHPs this season, the Guardians ranked seventh in SLG (.427) and eighth in wRC+ (114).

The Guardians also found something on offence over the final two ALDS games, scoring 12 total runs in a pair of matchups that went over the 7.5-run total.

Four of six head-to-head matchups between Cleveland and New York exceeded this number. The average total in those games was 9.8 runs.

Key stat: The over is 46-35-2 (56.8%) in Yankees home games this season, per Team Rankings.

Quick pick

Yankees to lead after five innings (-125): Even though Rodon struggled in his most recent start, I still think he gives the Yankees an edge over whomever the Guardians roll with.

Cleveland hasn’t announced its Game 1 starter as of this writing, but it’ll likely be Alex Cobb or Gavin Williams. New York has seen more of Cobb but has decent numbers against both

The Yankees are 25-for-89 (.281) with 11 extra-base hits cumulatively against Cobb and Williams, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them deal early damage against either pitcher.

New York’s offence also tends to start strong, averaging 2.79 runs per game in the first five innings (fifth in MLB). Cleveland’s F5 scoring average is 2.57 runs (11th).

Picks made at 4:35 p.m. ET 10/13/2024.

Guardians vs. Yankees ALCS Game 1 best bets: Take the over, count on New York to lead early

Guardians vs. Yankees best bets

The battle for the AL pennant begins on Monday night as the New York Yankees host the Cleveland Guardians.

The pregame narrative: In the regular season, the Yankees and Guardians combined for some decent offensive performances. That’s part of the reason I like the over in Game 1. I’m also siding with the Yankees to lead at the first-five-inning mark.

Check out my Guardians vs. Yankees best bets for Game 1 of their ALCS matchup on Oct. 14.

Guardians vs. Yankees best bets

Full MLB postseason betting markets: Click here

Best Bet: Over 7.5 runs (-105)

Embed: #97296

Carlos Rodon was all smiles when he struck out the side to begin his lone ALDS start against the Royals. But he didn’t have a lot to smile about after that.

The left-hander wound up allowing four runs on seven hits over just 3.2 innings.

Rodon had a solid regular season, posting a 3.96 ERA over 32 outings. But due to some wobbly outings — and more often, some great performances by the New York offence — this over cashed in 22 of his starts (68.8%).

Cleveland hasn’t faced Rodon this year, but the Guardians fared well against lefties as a whole.

Against all LHPs this season, the Guardians ranked seventh in SLG (.427) and eighth in wRC+ (114).

The Guardians also found something on offence over the final two ALDS games, scoring 12 total runs in a pair of matchups that went over the 7.5-run total.

Four of six head-to-head matchups between Cleveland and New York exceeded this number. The average total in those games was 9.8 runs.

Key stat: The over is 46-35-2 (56.8%) in Yankees home games this season, per Team Rankings.

Quick pick

Yankees to lead after five innings (-117): Even though Rodon struggled in his most recent start, I still think he gives the Yankees an edge over whomever the Guardians roll with.

Embed: #97303

Cleveland hasn’t announced its Game 1 starter as of this writing, but it’ll likely be Alex Cobb or Gavin Williams. New York has seen more of Cobb but has decent numbers against both

The Yankees are 25-for-89 (.281) with 11 extra-base hits cumulatively against Cobb and Williams, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them deal early damage against either pitcher.

New York’s offence also tends to start strong, averaging 2.79 runs per game in the first five innings (fifth in MLB). Cleveland’s F5 scoring average is 2.57 runs (11th).

Picks made at 3:10 p.m. ET 10/13/2024.

Mets vs. Dodgers Game 1 same-game parlay predictions: Back Ohtani, Flaherty in NLCS at +265

Mets vs. Dodgers predictions

The Los Angeles Dodgers, who are back in the NLCS for the seventh time since 2013, host Game 1 tonight against the New York Mets.

The pregame narrative: Jack Flaherty gets the ball on Sunday, just as he did in the NLDS opener. I like Flaherty to clear a modest strikeout total, and I’m backing both Shohei Ohtani and Francisco Lindor to chip in on offence.

Check out my Mets vs. Dodgers predictions for Game 1 of the NLCS on Oct. 13.

Mets vs. Dodgers SGP predictions

Full MLB postseason betting markets: Click here

Parlay: Flaherty over 4.5 strikeouts + Ohtani over 0.5 runs + Lindor over 0.5 hits (+265)

Flaherty over 4.5 Ks (-245): Flaherty on extra rest is a guy worth putting your trust in.

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During the regular season, when pitching on six-plus days of rest, Flaherty went 5-1 with a 2.45 ERA and a 10.2 K/9. He collected five-plus Ks in seven of those eight starts.

Flaherty was an option to go for the Dodgers in Game 5 of the NLDS but was passed over for Yoshinobu Yamamoto. And now, pitching for the first time since Oct. 6, he should be in a comfortable spot to thrive.

The Mets had the 10th-highest K rate in the second half (24.2%), and Flaherty has a 28.6% K rate against them in 70 at-bats.

SGP legs

Ohtani over 0.5 runs (-148): Ohtani is an MVP-in-waiting who leads off for arguably the best offence in the majors. I’m not going to let a so-so performance in the NLDS cloud my view of him.

Embed: #97266

L.A.’s designated hitter reached base in just six of 22 plate appearances (.273 OBP) with 10 strikeouts against the Padres, scoring in two of five games.

So what? He had a .390 OBP during the regular season and scored in 93 of 159 games (58.5%).

So far, Ohtani has reached base in all three plate appearances against Mets starter Kodai Senga (a double and two walks). And as a lefty hitter, Ohtani has the platoon advantage against the right-handed Senga.

Ohtani had a 1.128 OPS against righties this season.

Lindor over 0.5 hits (-215): Coming off a series-clinching grand slam in the NLDS, Lindor should be reliable to notch a hit in tonight’s opener.

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The shortstop is 7-for-21 (.333) over his past five games, stringing together quality at-bats from atop the Mets’ lineup.

Flaherty has a 5.9% walk rate, which ranks in the 83rd percentile in the majors. That means Lindor will likely need to get the bat off his shoulder to get on base.

Including the regular season and playoffs, Lindor has recorded a hit in 110 of 159 games (69.2%).

Picks made at 9:50 a.m. on 10/13/24.

Ohio State vs. Oregon college football Week 7 picks: Back Howard, James and Judkins in Big Ten showdown

Ohio State vs. Oregon picks

The most important Big Ten matchup of the year takes place Saturday night inside Autzen Stadium, where the No. 3 Oregon Ducks host the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes.

The pregame narrative: Both teams have averaged 35-plus points per game, so we could be in for some fireworks on offence. With that in mind, I’m backing OSU quarterback Will Howard to score and taking the over on yardage props for Quinshon Judkins, Jordan James and Terrance Ferguson.

Check out my top Ohio State vs. Oregon picks for this Week 7 matchup.

Ohio State vs. Oregon picks

Click linked odds to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

OSU vs. ORE picksOddsBet now ⬇️
Howard anytime TD+108Add to betslip
Parlay: James 65+ rush yards, Judkins 55+ rush yards+148Pick 1 + Pick 2
Ferguson over 24.5 rec. yards-136Add to betslip

Go to full college football betting markets.

Best Bet: Howard anytime TD (+108)

When it comes to offensive playmakers, Ohio State has an embarrassment of riches.

Both tailbacks are averaging more than 7.5 yards per carry, and all three wide receivers have the potential to be first-round NFL draftees in their respective classes.

Let’s not overlook quarterback Will Howard, either. He’s adept at distributing the ball through the air but can also affect a game on the ground.

Howard, 6-foot-4 and 235 pounds, is big enough to take the ball between the tackles and run through somebody. And with 23 career rushing TDs on 250 attempts, he’s clearly capable of handling that task.

One of Ohio State’s great strengths so far has been its red zone offence, which has scored a touchdown in 20 of 21 trips (95.2%). Howard’s willingness to tuck the ball and run gives opposing defences something extra to worry about.

Howard has scored in four consecutive games, scoring from the six-yard line or closer each time.

I expect the Buckeyes’ No. 4-ranked scoring offence (46.0 PPG) to put up points. And Howard has some nice value to keep his touchdown streak alive.

Key stat: Since the start of last year, Howard has scored in 11 of 17 games.

Quick picks

Parlay: James 65+ rush yards, Judkins 55+ rush yards (+148): After impressive efficiency in a backup role, James has finally risen to the top of the Ducks’ depth chart — and he’s thriving.

James paced the Pac-12 in yards per rush last year (7.1 yards), but he was overshadowed by Bucky Irving, who now plays on Sundays. This season, James has averaged 6.3 yards per carry and scored five times in five games.

More notably, James hasn’t had an off-game yet. He’s rushed for 85-plus yards each time and has always averaged more than five yards per tote.

Ohio State will be the junior tailback’s toughest test to date, and there’s a chance Oregon has to abandon the run at some point if Ohio State builds a lead.

But James has been reliably efficient enough that he should be able to clear this total even with a reduced workload.

As for Judkins, the transition from Ole Miss to Ohio State has been smooth. He’s averaging 93.6 yards per game and has cashed this bet in four of five matchups.

Oregon has only seen one elite rushing attack so far: Ashton Jeanty and the Boise State Broncos. Jeanty had 192 yards on 25 carries in that matchup.

Can Judkins put up roughly 30% of the yards Jeanty ran for against the Ducks? I think so.

Ferguson over 24.5 receiving yards (-136): A prop bet on Oregon leading receiver Tez Johnson might be the expectation, but I think Ohio State’s talented defensive backs will be keyed on him.

Ferguson has a very modest receiving yardage line that he’s cleared in four of five games.

The senior tight end has seen three-plus targets every game and broke free for a 62-yard gain last week. He’s seeing steady volume and has big-play ability, which is all you can ask for.

Picks made at 4:00 p.m. on 08/31/2024.

Tigers vs. Guardians ALDS Game 5 predictions: Bet on Skubal, Detroit on F5 moneyline

Tigers vs. Guardians predictions

Knotted at two games apiece, the Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers will play for a spot in the ALCS on Saturday at Progressive Field.

The pregame narrative: Tarik Skubal will get the ball for Detroit on normal rest, while Cleveland hasn’t decided on its starter (as of this writing). With an elite pitcher on the mound, I’m targeting a pair of F5 wagers.

Check out my Tigers vs. Guardians predictions for Game 5 of their ALDS matchup on Oct. 12.

Tigers vs. Guardians predictions

Full MLB postseason betting markets: Click here

Best Bet: Tigers tie no bet – first five innings (-143)

Betting against Tarik Skubal is never fun and rarely advisable. And I’m not going to do it with Detroit’s season on the line.

This is a steep price to pay, but I’d say it’s worth it. Detroit is 8-0-3 on the F5 moneyline in Skubal’s past 11 starts.

And Skubal has been central to that early-game success.

The AL-Cy-Young-to-be has a 1.57 ERA and a 10.5 K/9 in that span. Detroit has led at the F5 mark in each of his past five starts, so betting on the Tigers to lead at the halfway mark is reasonable, too.

I prefer the safety of the tie-no-bet market because the Guardians likely have some stellar pitching lined up, too.

Though it hasn’t been announced, Matthew Boyd should factor into Game 5 as either a starter or bulk reliever. And Friday’s rest day means the talented Cleveland bullpen, which had the lowest post-all-star ERA in the majors (2.50), should be at full strength.

Still, Skubal is the best possible guy to have on the mound in a winner-take-all game. He blanked the Guardians over 7.0 innings of three-hit ball in Game 2, and he can do it again.

Key stat: Detroit is 20-6-7 on the F5 moneyline in Skubal’s outings this year (regular season and playoffs included).

Quick pick

Under 3 runs – first five innings (-106): Here’s a bet without any extra juice that has some truly compelling trends.

Skubal is on a 24.1-inning scoreless streak that dates back to Sept. 18. He’s also been a menace against the Guardians, allowing two runs over 20.0 innings (all on the road) since August of last season.

Whether or not Boyd starts, I expect him to factor into Saturday’s game. He went toe-to-toe with Skubal in Game 2, keeping Detroit scoreless over 4.2 innings before turning things over to the bullpen.

Two games in this ALDS matchup went under 3 runs at the F5 mark, and another finished with exactly four runs (thanks to a pair scored in the fifth).

Expect pitching to overpower hitting in the series clincher.

Picks made at 2:32 p.m. ET 10/11/2024.

College football Week 7 picks and predictions: NCAAF best bets on Ohio State vs. Oregon, Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky

College football Week 7 picks

Last weekend was a college football masterclass, and there are some matchups this Saturday that should keep the good times rolling.

The pregame narrative: My best bet is on the game of the week, No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Oregon. I also have a prop bet from the No. 9 Ole Miss vs. No. 13 LSU matchup, as well as an ATS pick in favour of Vanderbilt after a huge upset last Saturday.

Check out the best college football Week 7 picks for the action on Oct. 12.

College football Week 7 picks

NCAAF Week 7 picksOdds
Ohio State/Oregon over 53.5 pts-120
Vanderbilt +13.5-130

Go to full college football betting markets.

Best Bet: Ohio State/Oregon over 53.5 points (-120)

If both offences are firing on Saturday night, this is a number they can definitely clear.

Ohio State has been beating up on lesser opponents through five games, averaging 46.0 points (third in the NCAA) along the way. Oregon isn’t quite in that stratosphere but is still scoring at a 35.0 PPG clip (22nd in the NCAA).

There are a lot of ways to speak kindly of the Buckeyes’ offence. They have …

  • A veteran quarterback averaging 9.6 yards/attempt on a 71.5% completion rate
  • Two running backs averaging more than 7.5 yards/rush
  • A receiver with a first-round draft grade (and two more that will likely have first-round grades in ’26 and ’27)

The over is 3-2 in Buckeyes games so far, but they haven’t been pushed by an opposing offence. Oregon should be able to change that.

After a disconcerting season opener against Idaho, the Ducks have rebounded to score 30-plus points in four straight games. Maybe transfer quarterback Dillon Gabriel needed some time to settle in.

Gabriel’s passing volume is down since the Idaho game, but Oregon’s run game has stepped up to create a more balanced attack. In their past four games, the Ducks are averaging 5.1 yards/rush with eight scores.

Of the two teams, only Oregon has faced another reputable offence so far, courtesy of No. 17 Boise State. In that matchup in Eugene, the Ducks won a barn-burner, 37-34.

Key stat: Ohio State has scored 35-plus points in all five games and cleared this line once on its own (a 56-0 win over Western Michigan).

Quick pick

Vanderbilt +13.5 (-130): Vanderbilt knocked off then-No. 1 Alabama last week, after which a bunch of students marched the goalposts down Broadway and deposited them in the Cumberland River. As they should.

I mention that to say that this week’s road game against Kentucky is a readymade hangover game. But if I can back the Commodores while banking nearly two touchdowns, I’ll happily do it.

Vandy is 4-1 ATS this year and has covered this number in all five games. That includes losing by a field goal on the road against No. 21 Missouri and beating Virginia Tech outright as a 13-point underdog.

Kentucky did almost upset Georgia, but it has only covered this number once in its past four games.

NCAA picks made at 11:30 a.m. on 10/11/2024.