It’s an all-New York battle — taking place in New Jersey — to close out NFL Week 6 on Monday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: Fresh off the firing of head coach Robert Saleh, the New York Jets host the Buffalo Bills with a chance to draw even in the AFC East. I’m backing Buffalo on an alt spread, though, in a +600 SGP that also features Breece Hall and Dalton Kincaid.
Check out my Bills vs. Jets same-game parlay predictions for Week 6 below.
Bills vs. Jets same-game parlay predictions
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Parlay: Bills +3.5 + Kincaid over 29.5 receiving yards + Hall over 49.5 rushing yards + Under 45.5 points (+600)
Bills +3.5 (-200): Buffalo is in a tough stretch of its season, playing on the road for a third straight week after losing in Baltimore and Houston. That’s why I want to buy some points rather than back the Bills straight up.
I do still want in on the Bills’ side, though. They’re 6-2 against the Jets since 2020, and they covered this number in one of the two losses. New York is merely days removed from a coaching change and has had more travel in the past week (returning from London) than Buffalo has.
Though I doubt that Josh Allen is at full strength, he didn’t miss any practices in the run-up to the game. And James Cook is planning to play, which helps.
New York’s only wins of the season came against the Patriots and Titans, so I have no confidence that they can win by margin.
Other parlay picks
Kincaid over 29.5 receiving yards (-200): Khalil Shakir is questionable to play after logging just one practice at the end of the week. Even if he plays, it’s reasonable to believe he won’t be counted on to handle a full workload.
Enter Kincaid.
After a curiously quiet Week 1, Kincaid has enjoyed a steady role in Buffalo’s offence. In each of the past four games, he has …
- 4+ targets
- 30+ receiving yards
- 20.0% (or greater) target share
And as a rookie in 2023, Kincaid had four-plus catches in both games against the Jets.
Even if the Bills were fully healthy on offence, this is a yardage number I’d expect him to clear. But I’m particularly bullish based on the state of Buffalo’s offence.
Hall over 49.5 rushing yards (-180): FOX’s Jay Glazer reported this week that Jets interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich is committed to a “run-focused offence.” Time to see if that’s true.
Hall has looked awful in back-to-back games, rushing for just 27 yards on 17 carries. Woof. But if New York is prepared to commit to its ground attack, we should expect quite a bit more from its top runner.
In Weeks 1-3, Hall surpassed the 50-yard marker in each game. He also torched Buffalo at home last season, going for 127 yards and a score on just 10 carries.
Buffalo ranks 31st in yards allowed per rush (5.2).
Under 45.5 points (-210): It’s a bit of a cliche to treat divisional matchups differently than the rest. But the Jets and Bills do tend to play low-scoring games, and the recent sample is large enough that I’m buying in.
Since 2020, seven of their eight head-to-head meetings fell below this number. The Bills and Jets combined for an average 39.5 points in those games (with one 62-point outlier mixed in).
The Jets have the No. 2 total defence in football, and each of their past four games has fallen below this total. As for Buffalo, the under is 3-0 in road games this season.
Picks made at 11:30 a.m. on 10/14/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.