Tonight, the New York Yankees host the Cleveland Guardians to open the ALCS.
The pregame narrative: Neither lineup is on fire right now, but I still like their chances of collectively clearing a modest run total in Game 1. In addition to an alt total, my +240 same-game parlay features prop bets on Juan Soto and Lane Thomas.
Check out my Guardians vs. Yankees predictions for Game 1 of the ALCS on Oct. 14.
Guardians vs. Yankees SGP predictions
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Parlay: Over 6.5 runs + Soto over 0.5 runs + Thomas over 0.5 hits (+240)
Over 6.5 runs (-167): I backed the over as my best bet, but I’ll trim a run off the standard line to make this a safer pick for the parlay.
Against left-handed pitching this year, Cleveland finished seventh in SLG (.427) and eighth in wRC+ (114). So I think they’ll have a decent shot at putting up some runs against New York southpaw Carlos Rodon.
The Yankees’ offence wasn’t in its best form during the ALDS, but the Bronx Bombers have often shown out at home. The over is 46-35-2 (56.8%) at Yankee Stadium this year, per Team Rankings.
Four of six regular season matchups between these teams went over this number. The Guardians and Yankees combined to average 9.8 runs in those matchups.
SGP legs
Soto over 0.5 runs (-139): Soto only scored once in the ALDS, but it wasn’t for a lack of trying.
The AL runs leader reached base seven times in four games, but with a slumping Aaron Judge behind him, Soto struggled to make it around the diamond.
It’s difficult to envision an extended slump for Judge, and I do expect Soto to continue putting himself in a position to score.
The superstar outfielder has excellent numbers against Guardians starter Alex Cobb, batting 7-for-11 with two homers, a double and a walk.
Additionally, Soto has a .439 OBP in his career against righties. The opportunities will keep coming, and someone on the Yankees should be able to bring him around.
Thomas over 0.5 hits (-186): Fresh off the biggest hit of his life (I’m assuming), Thomas makes perfect sense in this SGP.
The former Blue Jays draftee smashed a grand slam off Cy-Young-to-be Tarik Skubal in the clinching game of the ALDS, which is a reminder of what Thomas can do against even the best lefty pitching on the planet.
Thomas will have the righty-on-lefty platoon advantage again tonight against Rodon. In his career, Thomas is batting .302 with an .880 OPS against lefties.
During the ALDS, Thomas cashed this bet in four of five games while going 6-for-19 (.316) at the plate.
Picks made at 9:20 a.m. on 10/14/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.