Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

Best NBA prop bets Nov. 10: Zach Edey, Bennedict Mathurin should shine on Sunday

Today’s NBA prop bets are for all the Canadian hoops heads out there.

The pregame narrative: Neither Zach Edey nor Bennedict Mathurin played for Canada at the Paris Olympics, but both players look like promising pieces for our next national team. On Sunday, I’m taking overs on prop markets for Edey and Mathurin while also backing LaMelo Ball to score in bunches.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Nov. 10.

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Best bet: Mathurin over 16.5 points (-130)

A shoulder injury held Mathurin out of consideration for Canada’s Olympic men’s basketball roster this past summer, but it’s never too early to start dreaming about his fit for the 2028 squad.

Mathurin, a 6-foot-6 wing from Montreal, is off to an impressively efficient start in Year 3 and was recently bumped into the starting lineup as a result.

Across the board, Mathurin is tracking toward career-highs in shooting efficiency (including a 52.1% FG rate overall)

He’s averaging 19.3 PPG in four games since moving into the starting lineup

No team has allowed more points to opposing guards so far than the New York Knicks (84.3 PPG), and that’s who Mathurin will see tonight.

Mathurin is averaging 17.4 PPG in seven career matchups against the Knicks, cashing this bet in five of his past six.

This season, Mathurin has gone over 16.5 points in six of nine games. He’s played 30-plus minutes in each of his past five games and should remain heavily involved in the Indiana Pacers’ offensive game plan.

Key stat: Mathurin is averaging 21.4 PPG over his past five games on 13.6 field goal attempts.

Quick picks

Ball over 26.5 points (-125): Ball has been on fire so far this season and the Philadelphia 76ers pose an encouraging matchup for him.

The fifth-year point guard is averaging a career-high 28.4 PPG through his first nine games, thanks in large part to a huge volume of 3-point attempts.

Ball is averaging 12.4 attempted 3s per game, which leads the NBA
He’s scored 30-plus points in five of nine games, including two of three on the road

The 76ers have allowed league-high rates in field goal percentage (51.1%) and 3-point percentage (40.5%) to opposing guards, per NBA.com.

This should be a dream matchup for a volume shooter like Ball.

Edey over 17.5 points/rebounds (-125): I’ll admit I was skeptical of Edey’s NBA prospects coming out of Purdue. I thought he was too slow on defence and too undisciplined as a fouler to stick.

Looks like I’m wrong, which is great news for Canada’s men’s team down the road — and for the Memphis Grizzlies right now.

The Toronto native has averaged 11.1 points and 6.7 rebounds (17.8 PR) so far, and a lot of that production has come in the past five games.

Since Oct. 31, Edey is averaging 13.4 PPG and 9.0 RPG, cashing the over on this bet in four of five matchups.

The Portland Trail Blazers allow the fourth-most rebounds per game in the NBA, so Edey should only need to hover around 10-12 points to hit this over.

Picks made at 12:30 p.m. ET on 11/10/2024.

Best NBA prop bets Nov. 10: Zach Edey, Bennedict Mathurin should shine on Sunday

Today’s NBA prop bets are for all the Canadian hoops heads out there.

The pregame narrative: Neither Zach Edey nor Bennedict Mathurin played for Canada at the Paris Olympics, but both players look like promising pieces for our next national team. On Sunday, I’m taking overs on prop markets for Edey and Mathurin while also backing LaMelo Ball to score in bunches.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Nov. 10.

NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Mathurin over 16.5 points (-117)

A shoulder injury held Mathurin out of consideration for Canada’s Olympic men’s basketball roster this past summer, but it’s never too early to start dreaming about his fit for the 2028 squad.

Mathurin, a 6-foot-6 wing from Montreal, is off to an impressively efficient start in Year 3 and was recently bumped into the starting lineup as a result.

Across the board, Mathurin is tracking toward career-highs in shooting efficiency (including a 52.1% FG rate overall)

He’s averaging 19.3 PPG in four games since moving into the starting lineup

No team has allowed more points to opposing guards so far than the New York Knicks (84.3 PPG), and that’s who Mathurin will see tonight.

Mathurin is averaging 17.4 PPG in seven career matchups against the Knicks, cashing this bet in five of his past six.

This season, Mathurin has gone over 16.5 points in six of nine games. He’s played 30-plus minutes in each of his past five games and should remain heavily involved in the Indiana Pacers’ offensive game plan.

Key stat: Mathurin is averaging 21.4 PPG over his past five games on 13.6 field goal attempts.

Quick picks

Ball over 28.5 points (-120): This is a big number, but Ball has been on fire so far this season and the Philadelphia 76ers pose an encouraging matchup for him.

The fifth-year point guard is averaging a career-high 28.4 PPG through his first nine games, thanks in large part to a huge volume of 3-point attempts.

Ball is averaging 12.4 attempted 3s per game, which leads the NBA
He’s scored 30-plus points in five of nine games, including two of three on the road

The 76ers have allowed league-high rates in field goal percentage (51.1%) and 3-point percentage (40.5%) to opposing guards, per NBA.com.

This should be a dream matchup for a volume shooter like Ball.

Edey over 17.5 points/rebounds (-107): I’ll admit I was skeptical of Edey’s NBA prospects coming out of Purdue. I thought he was too slow on defence and too undisciplined as a fouler to stick.

Looks like I’m wrong, which is great news for Canada’s men’s team down the road — and for the Memphis Grizzlies right now.

The Toronto native has averaged 11.1 points and 6.7 rebounds (17.8 PR) so far, and a lot of that production has come in the past five games.

Since Oct. 31, Edey is averaging 13.4 PPG and 9.0 RPG, cashing the over on this bet in four of five matchups.

The Portland Trail Blazers allow the fourth-most rebounds per game in the NBA, so Edey should only need to hover around 10-12 points to hit this over.

Picks made at 9:32 a.m. ET on 11/10/2024.

Top NFL Week 10 TD picks: Look for Hurts, Adams to seize opportunities

Jalen Hurts is on a tear right now and looks like a great value to score in this week’s divisional clash in Dallas.

The pregame narrative: Hurts has racked up tons of red zone carries all season long and is my best bet to cross the goal line on Sunday. I also like Davante Adams to build off his touchdown from last Thursday and for George Kittle to remain a threat in what should be a more robust 49ers offence.

Check out the best NFL Week 10 TD picks for the upcoming games.

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Best bet: Hurts anytime TD (-125)

Quarterbacks are rarely odds-on touchdown scorers, but Hurts is a very reasonable exception.

At the helm of an Eagles team that runs the ball more than anybody else (54.6%, per Team Rankings), Hurts is encouraged to regularly call his own number.

Sure, Saquon Barkley commands roughly twice as many carries, but they split up the goal line work much more evenly. Of Philly’s NFL-best 14 rushing touchdowns, Barkley has six and Hurts has eight.

For Sunday’s road game against the Dallas Cowboys, Barkley has -286 odds to score. That sure makes Hurts look like a bargain, doesn’t it?

As does the production Hurts has amassed with his legs in recent weeks.

Hurts has six rushing TDs over his past three games, cashing this bet in each of them. He also has 16 red zone carries in his past four games, versus just six red zone pass attempts in the same span.

Let me repeat that for emphasis. Over his past four games, Hurts’ volume of red zone carries (16) is almost triple his volume of red zone pass attempts (six). He’s always looking for the end zone, and he often finds it.

Key stat: Hurts’ 11 carries inside the five-yard line are the most among quarterbacks and is tied for the third-most among all ball carriers.

Quick picks

Kittle anytime TD (+114): Christian McCaffrey returns on Sunday, which instantly makes him the 49ers’ most likely player to score. But let’s not forget about Kittle.

The five-time Pro Bowl tight end has six TDs in just seven games. He’s also seen six targets inside the 10-yard line over the past four games.

McCaffrey’s presence should be a net positive for other hopeful San Francisco TD scorers, as the Niners should have an easier time moving the ball. When the defence keys on McCaffrey, Kittle should be one of the very next reads for Brock Purdy.

Adams anytime TD (+104): The Aaron-Rodgers-to-Davante-Adams connection looked as good as new last week. Adams turned 11 targets into seven catches for 91 yards — including a 37-yard TD reception.

That was Adams’ first TD catch since Week 2 and his first from Rodgers since Jan. 2, 2022 (when they were both on the Packers). I’m not giving up on the connection, though, and I think it has a chance to flourish again this week in Arizona.

The Cardinals rank 28th in defensive EPA per dropback, according to RBSDM.com. This is a matchup that Adams can thrive in.

And if you’ll allow me to reach back into history a bit here, Adams has scored a touchdown in nine of his past 16 games with Rodgers.

Picks made at 2:45 p.m. ET on 11/08/2024.

Alabama vs. LSU college football Week 11 best bet: Tigers should cover at home

Buckle up, because there are major College Football Playoff implications in this week’s showdown between the No. 11 Alabama Crimson Tide and the No. 15 LSU Tigers.

The pregame narrative: This is the type of matchup the expanded playoff (love it or hate it) caters to. Both teams have everything on the line, and I’m looking at LSU to cover at home.

Check out my Alabama vs. LSU best bet for this ranked Week 11 matchup.

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Best Bet: LSU +3.5 (-138)

In seven games since, they’ve allowed just 208.9 passing yards/game and have forced 12 turnovers. On the season, their 3.9 yards/rush on defence ranks 43rd in the country.

A night game in Death Valley is one of the best atmospheres in the sport. So it should surprise no one that LSU is 14-4 ATS at home since the 2022 season.

Alabama has only played two road games since the back half of September, and it lost both outright as a favourite (at Tennessee, at Vanderbilt).

Key stat: LSU is 3-1 ATS in its past four games and has covered in two of its past three matchups against Alabama.

Pick made at 11:30 a.m. on 11/08/2024.

Alabama vs. LSU college football Week 11 picks: Tigers should cover, Aaron Anderson should ball out

Buckle up, because there are major College Football Playoff implications in this week’s showdown between the No. 11 Alabama Crimson Tide and the No. 15 LSU Tigers.

The pregame narrative: This is the type of matchup the expanded playoff (love it or hate it) caters to. Both teams have everything on the line, and I’m looking at LSU to cover at home. In the prop market, I’m backing overs for Aaron Anderson and Germie Bernard.

Check out my top Alabama vs. LSU picks for this ranked Week 11 matchup.

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Best Bet: Anderson over 54.5 receiving yards yards (-106)

Anderson was too low on LSU’s star-studded depth chart to factor into the Tigers’ last matchup against the Crimson Tide, but I suspect things will be different this time around.

The redshirt sophomore still isn’t WR1 in Baton Rouge, but he’s been impressively consistent as WR2.

Anderson has three or more catches in all eight games, and he’s cleared the 60-yard threshold seven times. An 87.5% hit rate on this yardage total sounds pretty good to me.

Recently, Anderson has flashed his big-play potential and further cemented himself as a go-to option for quarterback Garrett Nussmeier. He has a 20-plus-yard touchdown reception in three of the past four games and is coming off a career-high 126 receiving yards.

Alabama’s defence is known to be stingy, allowing the 11th-fewest yards per pass attempt in Division I (5.9). Then again, LSU can counteract that with its excessive passing volume (60.7% pass play rate, fifth in the NCAA).

Oh, and can I interest you in a revenge game narrative?

Anderson has quite a history with both schools in this rivalry. He initially committed to LSU in December 2020, then took a visit to Alabama the following June. He flipped his commitment to the Tide in October 2021 and enrolled as a true freshman for the 2022 season — before transferring to LSU that winter.

I don’t know the story there, but I’m sure he’d love to stick it to Bama. At this number, that is well within his reach.

Key stat: Anderson has cashed this bet in seven of eight games while averaging 76.8 yards/game.

Quick picks

LSU +3.5 (-127): LSU’s season-opening loss to USC hasn’t aged well, but the Tigers seem to have figured a lot of things out since then on defence.

In seven games since, they’ve allowed just 208.9 passing yards/game and have forced 12 turnovers. On the season, their 3.9 yards/rush on defence ranks 43rd in the country.

A night game in Death Valley is one of the best atmospheres in the sport. So it should surprise no one that LSU is 14-4 ATS at home since the 2022 season.

Alabama has only played two road games since the back half of September, and it lost both outright as a favourite (at Tennessee, at Vanderbilt).

Bernard over 54.5 receiving yards (-124): Like Anderson, Bernard isn’t the top dog in his WR room. But as opposing defences scramble to cover freshman phenom Ryan Williams, Bernard has seen his opportunities tick up.

Look at Bernard’s game-by-game averages when we split his season in half:

Games 1-4: 5.3 targets, 3.3 catches, 37.5 yards
Games 5-8: 6.0 targets, 4.3 catches, 78.3 yards

Maybe the Washington transfer has finally settled in with his new team, or maybe the Williams effect has led to more favourable opportunities. Perhaps both are true.

Either way, he looks like a great value at this number.

Picks made at 11:20 a.m. on 11/08/2024.

Suns vs. Mavericks same-game parlay predictions Nov. 8: Ride with Luka Doncic, Devin Booker in +350 SGP

The surging Phoenix Suns are on the road tonight to face the defending conference champion Dallas Mavericks.

The pregame narrative: Phoenix and Dallas played a relatively low-scoring game in their first go-round this season, and I expect more of the same tonight. But that doesn’t mean Luka Doncic or Devin Booker should hold back on the offensive side of the floor.

Check out my Suns vs. Mavericks same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 8.

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Parlay: Under 235.5 points + Doncic over 2.5 threes + Booker over 5.5 assists (+350)

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Under 235.5 points (-180): Dating back to Christmas Day of last season, the under is 4-0 in the past four matchups between the Suns and Mavericks.

Granted, the projected total was set in the 240s for three of those games. But in their Oct. 26 matchup in Phoenix — with an over/under of 230 points — the teams combined for just 216.

We know there’s no shortage of scoring savants in this matchup, but defence has been a point of pride for both sides so far this year. Dallas and Phoenix rank third and eighth, respectively, in defensive rating.

The under is 35-22 (61.4%) in Dallas’ home games since the start of last season. That’s the second-highest rate in the NBA in that span.

SGP legs

Doncic over 2.5 threes (-225): Even if scoring is relatively low, Doncic will be a tough guy to keep quiet.

Last year’s scoring champ has exploded in each of his past five matchups against the Suns, averaging 39.8 points in those games. A key part of that scoring success is 3-point volume.

In those five games against Phoenix, Doncic is shooting 40.0% from deep on 12.0 attempts per game.
He’s cashed this bet in four straight against the Suns, including a 5-for-13 showing last month.
Doncic is averaging 3.3 made 3s so far after a career-high 4.1 made 3s last season.

Simply put, he’s reliable against this line.

Booker over 5.5 assists (-148): As a shooting guard, Booker might not seem like a guy capable of racking up assists. As it turns out, his threat to score makes him an effective passer.

According to NBA.com player tracking data, Booker is fifth on the Suns in passes per game, but he’s second in terms of potential assists per game (10.5). Potential assists are tallied as any pass that immediately leads to a shot, and thus would result in an assist if the shot went in.

Booker, who averaged a career-high 6.9 assists last season, has cashed this bet in four consecutive games.

The Mavericks allow the most assists per game to opposing shooting guards (5.6), per Betting Pros, and Booker has averaged 7.2 APG in his past five matchups against them.

NBA picks made at 9:00 a.m. on 11/08/24.

College football Week 11 picks and predictions: NCAAF best bets on BYU vs. Utah, FSU vs. Notre Dame

The first batch of College Football Playoff rankings are out, which is how you know we’ve hit crunch time on the NCAA football season.

The pregame narrative: This weekend, I love the No. 9 BYU Cougars to cover in their rivalry game against the Utah Utes. I also expect the Florida State Seminoles to clear a very modest point total.

Check out the best college football Week 11 picks for the action on Nov. 9.

College football Week 11 picks

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Best Bet: BYU -3 (-110)

It’s Holy War week for BYU and Utah, whose rivalry reaches back to the late 1800s. Saturday marks their first meeting as members of the Big 12, and it’s a chance for the Cougars to further solidify their position in the CFP rankings.

BYU (8-0) has won every game this season by at least a field goal. That’s why I’m willing to pay a bit of extra juice to bump this line down to exactly three points.

The Cougars have surprised many people on their journey to the top of the Big 12 standings, as four of their wins this year came as underdogs. But their rightful favourites on Saturday night against a reeling Utah team.

Utah (4-4) was the preseason favourite as quarterback Cam Rising returned for what felt like his 10th season (it’s actually his seventh). Multiple injuries were Rising’s undoing once again, though, giving way to QB Isaac Wilson, who has as many TDs (eight) as INTs.

The Utes have been favoured in every game they’ve played this year, which feels odd in this lost season. And it’s particularly odd now that Utah has lost four games in a row entering Week 11.

BYU is averaging 35.1 PPG this year, while Utah has only cleared the 25-point threshold twice.

It’s a huge rivalry game and Utah is the home team, but BYU has been drastically better all season long.

Key stat: BYU is 7-1-0 ATS, while Utah is 1-6-1 ATS his season.

Quick pick

Florida State over 7.5 points (+110): I feel a bit squeamish making a pick that supports the Florida State Seminoles, but I can’t stay away from a plus-money price on such a low point total.

The Seminoles have the No. 133 scoring offence … out of 134 teams. But that still equates to a 14.4 PPG, which is nearly double the ask for Saturday. And they’ve hit this over in all nine matchups.

Notre Dame, meanwhile, has the No. 4 scoring defence (12.1 PPG). It’ll certainly be a tough matchup, but five of the Fighting Irish’s eight opponents have hit this over.

The injury to quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei in September wasn’t a big loss for the ‘Noles because they were also a nightmare with him under centre. Here’s hoping Florida State has some pride and can put together multiple scoring drives on Saturday.

Picks made at 12:20 p.m. on 11/07/2024.

Best NFL Week 10 prop bets: Kelce should stay hot, but fade Dobbins and Harrison

Two unders and an over are on my ticket for this week’s NFL prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Travis Kelce is cruising right now, and he has some promising history against the Denver Broncos that leads me to believe he’ll go over his receiving yards prop on Sunday. Elsewhere, J.K. Dobbins and Marvin Harrison Jr. are staring down some tough defensive matchups.

Check out the best NFL Week 10 prop bets for the upcoming games.

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Best bet: Kelce over 57.5 receiving yards (-117)

After a slow start to the season, Kelce is really taking off.

Kelce only had 69 total receiving yards over his first three games … but now he has 70-plus in four of five games since.

Last week, the four-time All-Pro tight end set season-highs in targets (16), catches (14) and yards (100). Even with DeAndre Hopkins in the mix, Kelce is clearly the lead dog in the Kansas City Chiefs attack.

I’m not worried about Hopkins’ presence harshing Kelce’s receiving volume. In fact, it’s probably for the best that the Chiefs have multiple go-to options so opposing teams can’t key on Kelce quite as much.

The Denver Broncos are a tough matchup for pass-catchers. They allow the sixth-fewest pass yards per game and rank No. 3 in defensive EPA per dropback, per RBSDM.com. But Kelce hasn’t had much of an issue against them in the recent meetings.

Over the previous two seasons, Kelce has averaged 74.0 receiving yards in four games against his AFC West foe. Last year, he saw nine targets apiece in both matchups and totalled 182 yards.

Kelce is trending up, and his career average of 70.4 yards/game suggests that he’s a solid pick at this number.

Key stat: Over his past five games, Kelce has averaged 73.2 yards on 10.4 targets per game.

Quick picks

Dobbins under 65.5 rushing yards (-112): Not a lot is going right for the Tennessee Titans this season, but they’ve been one of the best squads when it comes to stopping the run.

Tennessee has the No. 1 total defence this season and is allowing the fifth-lowest rushing success rate.

Last week, the Patriots’ tailbacks combined for 15 yards on 12 attempts against the Titans. On the season, only one tailback (Jahmyr Gibbs) has gone over this number against them.

Dobbins has steady volume for the run-heavy Chargers, but he’s only gone over 20 carries once this season. He’s gone under 65.5 rush yards in four of his past six games.

Harrison under 46.5 receiving yards (-115): Harrison needs to break out of his funk, but this isn’t an ideal matchup for him to do that.

The New York Jets allow the third-fewest yards per game to opposing receivers, and their defence allows the lowest success rate per dropback.

Harrison only has 18 catches in his past six games, and he’s gone under this yardage five times in that span. I’m sure the rookie wideout will turn things around at some point, but this isn’t a spot where I expect him to find his footing.

Picks made at 3:40 p.m. ET on 11/07/2024.

College football Week 11 picks and predictions: NCAAF best bets on BYU vs. Utah, Bhayshul Tuten

The first batch of College Football Playoff rankings are out, which is how you know we’ve hit crunch time on the NCAA football season.

The pregame narrative: This weekend, I love the No. 9 BYU Cougars to cover in their rivalry game against the Utah Utes. I also expect Bhayshul Tuten to run all over the Clemson Tigers, and for the Florida State Seminoles to clear a very modest point total.

Check out the best college football Week 11 picks for the action on Nov. 9.

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Best Bet: BYU -3 (-130)