The first batch of College Football Playoff rankings are out, which is how you know we’ve hit crunch time on the NCAA football season.
The pregame narrative: This weekend, I love the No. 9 BYU Cougars to cover in their rivalry game against the Utah Utes. I also expect the Florida State Seminoles to clear a very modest point total.
Check out the best college football Week 11 picks for the action on Nov. 9.
College football Week 11 picks
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Best Bet: BYU -3 (-110)
It’s Holy War week for BYU and Utah, whose rivalry reaches back to the late 1800s. Saturday marks their first meeting as members of the Big 12, and it’s a chance for the Cougars to further solidify their position in the CFP rankings.
BYU (8-0) has won every game this season by at least a field goal. That’s why I’m willing to pay a bit of extra juice to bump this line down to exactly three points.
The Cougars have surprised many people on their journey to the top of the Big 12 standings, as four of their wins this year came as underdogs. But their rightful favourites on Saturday night against a reeling Utah team.
Utah (4-4) was the preseason favourite as quarterback Cam Rising returned for what felt like his 10th season (it’s actually his seventh). Multiple injuries were Rising’s undoing once again, though, giving way to QB Isaac Wilson, who has as many TDs (eight) as INTs.
The Utes have been favoured in every game they’ve played this year, which feels odd in this lost season. And it’s particularly odd now that Utah has lost four games in a row entering Week 11.
BYU is averaging 35.1 PPG this year, while Utah has only cleared the 25-point threshold twice.
It’s a huge rivalry game and Utah is the home team, but BYU has been drastically better all season long.
Key stat: BYU is 7-1-0 ATS, while Utah is 1-6-1 ATS his season.
Quick pick
Florida State over 7.5 points (+110): I feel a bit squeamish making a pick that supports the Florida State Seminoles, but I can’t stay away from a plus-money price on such a low point total.
The Seminoles have the No. 133 scoring offence … out of 134 teams. But that still equates to a 14.4 PPG, which is nearly double the ask for Saturday. And they’ve hit this over in all nine matchups.
Notre Dame, meanwhile, has the No. 4 scoring defence (12.1 PPG). It’ll certainly be a tough matchup, but five of the Fighting Irish’s eight opponents have hit this over.
The injury to quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei in September wasn’t a big loss for the ‘Noles because they were also a nightmare with him under centre. Here’s hoping Florida State has some pride and can put together multiple scoring drives on Saturday.
Picks made at 12:20 p.m. on 11/07/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.