Jordan Horrobin

The NFL kicks off from Munich, Germany on Sunday morning, and that game features one of my two upset picks for the week.

The pregame narrative: It hasn’t been a pretty season for the Carolina Panthers or the New York Giants, but I like the former to claw out a win after showing some signs of life last week. In the 1 p.m. window, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers should put up a solid fight against the San Francisco 49ers.

Check out these NFL Week 10 upset picks.

NFL Week 10 upset picks

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Best bet: Buccaneers moneyline (+210)

What would this line have been if the Buccaneers had bucked up and gone for two at the end of regulation against the Chiefs? Instead of going for the win, Tampa Bay settled for overtime and lost without ever getting the ball in the extra frame.

Still, it was an impressive effort without Mike Evans or Chris Godwin in a hostile Arrowhead Stadium environment.

Neither of those receivers will be on the field this Sunday either, but Baker Mayfield has been adept at moving the ball around and finding several different targets in the Bucs’ offence. He leads the NFL in TD passes (23) and is seventh in passer rating (105.6).

Tampa looks like a team trending in the wrong direction, with some key injuries and a 1-4 record over its past five games. But the schedule has been brutal, too. Eight of the Bucs’ nine games have come against teams that currently sit in playoff position.

The Bucs have a pair of signature wins over the Commanders and Lions, and they’ve taken one-score losses against the Falcons (twice) and the Chiefs. So their 4-5 record isn’t as bad as it looks.

Christian McCaffrey returned to practice for the 49ers this week after missing the first eight games of the year. Even if he plays — and that’s not a guarantee — I don’t expect him to make a world of difference in his first meaningful snaps since the Super Bowl.

Ride with a home team that’s shown plenty of fight all season long.

Key stat: San Francisco has lost four games as a favourite this year.

Week 10 upset predictions

Panthers moneyline (+195): You might prefer to sleep in rather than watch the Panthers face the Giants in Germany on Sunday morning. I wouldn’t blame anyone for making that call.

Whether you’re watching or not, the Panthers should have a fair shake at winning this neutral site game.

Carolina beat New Orleans last week as a 7-point underdog, snapping a five-game losing skid and (hopefully) restoring some confidence for second-year quarterback Bryce Young.

In two starts since coming back off the bench, Young has been a bit better: 395 yards, 63.5% completion rate, 3 TDs, 3 INTs.

Now the Panthers face a Giants team that shares an equally miserable 2-7 record. New York has lost four games in a row straight up and against the spread.

Neither of these teams has been a favourite this year, and neither deserves to be. So I’ll take the plus-money side and hope for the best.

Picks made at 2:40 p.m. ET on 11/05/2024.

After a thrilling showdown earlier this season, the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens get set for a rematch on Thursday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: Baltimore and Cincinnati combined for 79 points in their Week 5 game, and I think Joe Burrow will lead the Bengals into the end zone at least a couple of times this week. Even so, Baltimore looks like a worthwhile ATS pick.

Check out my Bengals vs. Ravens best bets for the Week 10 matchup on Thursday Night Football.

Bengals vs. Ravens best bets

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Best bet: Burrow over 1.5 passing TDs (-152)

I know there’s a lot of juice on this prop, but I’m willing to pay it as Burrow tries to will his Bengals back into the AFC playoff picture.

Cincinnati will need a big performance from its star quarterback, who threw for five touchdowns this past week in a win over the Raiders.

Burrow now has multiple TD passes in six of nine starts, totalling 20 TDs on the year.

His best performance came against the Ravens in Week 5 when the former No. 1 pick completed 30-of-39 passes for 392 yards and five TDs. If you’re going to get to Baltimore, it’s almost certainly going to have to be through the air — as Burrow demonstrated convincingly.

The Ravens have the No. 1 run defence in terms of yards allowed per game and per rush. But their NFL ranks against the pass are on the other end of the spectrum:

• 32nd in pass yards/game
• 28th in pass TDs
• 27th in net yards/attempt

Zack Moss, who sat out Week 9 with a neck injury, logged a non-practice-participant estimate on Monday. He was the Bengals’ primary goal-line rusher through the first eight weeks, and his absence would increase the likelihood that Cincy tries to score through the air in goal-to-go situations.

Burrow is playing some of his best football right now, posting a career-high success rate (53.1%) and the third-highest passer rating in the NFL (108.1).

I expect the fifth-year QB to take matters into his own hands when the Bengals are in scoring territory.

Key stat: Burrow is on a career-high pace for passing TDs, averaging 2.2 per game.

Quick pick

Ravens -5.5 (-120): After blowing a 10-point lead as home favourites in Week 2 (against the Raiders), the Ravens have been beasts against the spread.

Baltimore is 5-1-1 ATS from Week 3 onward, which includes a win over Cincinnati as a -2.5 road favourite.

The Ravens have won each of their past three home games by a touchdown or more. In that span, they’ve racked up a +63 point differential. They’ve also covered the spread in three straight meetings against the Bengals.

Picks made at 1:05 p.m. ET 11/05/2024.

The Kansas City Chiefs put their unblemished record back on the line tonight against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: Kansas City is a heavy home favourite, and I’m chopping the spread in half for this same-game parlay. Cade Otton should remain heavily involved for the Buccaneers — in a surprisingly strong matchup — while DeAndre Hopkins is expected to see more opportunities in his second game with the Chiefs.

Check out my Buccaneers vs. Chiefs same-game parlay predictions for Week 9 below.

Buccaneers vs. Chiefs same-game parlay predictions

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Parlay: Chiefs -4.5 + Hopkins over 39.5 receiving yards + Otton over 4.5 catches (+320)

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Chiefs -4.5 (-200): If you wanted to nitpick the Chiefs earlier this season, the best way to do so would be to say that they failed to win convincingly.

From last year’s divisional round through the end of September, Kansas City won seven consecutive one-score games. But in October, KC went 3-0 with a +30 point differential.

Maybe another one-score game is in store tonight, but even if it is, I like the Chiefs by this teased-down margin. They are 5-2 ATS this season and have covered a -4.5 spread six times.

Tampa Bay, which won’t have Mike Evans or Chris Godwin, has three straight ATS losses as underdogs.

Other parlay picks

Hopkins over 39.5 receiving yards (-143): In his Chiefs debut last week, Hopkins caught two of three targets for 29 yards. Nothing earth-shattering, but not bad in a 32% snap share.

On Thursday, KC coach Andy Reid told reporters that Hopkins’ role “will increase this week.” No one should be surprised to hear that, but the affirmation is appreciated nonetheless.

Entering this year, Hopkins had never averaged fewer than 50.0 yards per game in any season. Kansas City brought in the three-time All-Pro to bolster a much-depleted receiving corps, and I’m excited to see what that looks like after a full week of practice.

The Bucs provide a juicy matchup for Hopkins and the rest of the KC pass-catchers. Tampa Bay has allowed the third-most passing yards per game (255.4), and a solid chunk of that should go Hopkins’ way.

Otton over 4.5 catches (-162): Tampa Bay loves using its running backs in the passing game, but the real star of the air attack in the past two games has been Otton.

The third-year tight end has seen 10 targets in back-to-back games, turning those looks into 181 yards and two touchdowns.

I’m a big fan of Otton to score (+200) as a straight wager, but I’ll lean on a safer volume play for this SGP.

Dating back to Week 3, Otton has cashed this bet in four of six games. He has 47 targets in that span, while no other active Buccaneer has more than 24 (Rachaad White).

On a per-game basis, the Chiefs have allowed the most catches (7.0) and yards (80.9) to opposing tight ends.

Picks made at 10:07 a.m. on 11/04/24.