Jordan Horrobin

The NFL goes international once more in Week 10, and we’re treated to excellent primetime matchups on Thursday and Sunday.

The latest: Week 10 starts with a great one in the AFC North, as the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens meet for Thursday Night Football. On Sunday, the Houston Texans look to slow down the red-hot Detroit Lions in prime time.

Check out the latest NFL Week 10 odds below.

NFL Week 10 odds

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens

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New York Giants vs. Carolina Panthers

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San Francisco 49ers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints

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Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs

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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Washington Commanders

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New England Patriots vs. Chicago Bears

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Tennessee Titans vs. Los Angeles Chargers

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Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys

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New York Jets vs. Arizona Cardinals

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Detroit Lions vs. Houston Texans

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Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Rams

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Betting insights

• Since losing by a field goal at home against Baltimore, Cincinnati has won four of its past six games. Then again, the Ravens have won six of seven … and four of those victories came by a touchdown or more. Baltimore has covered the spread in three straight games against Cincy, but this week’s 6.5-point spread is the largest the Ravens have seen in this matchup since 2021.

• No one will blame you if you sleep in and miss the Germany game between the Giants and Panthers. New York (2-6-1 ATS) is on a four-game ATS losing streak, while Carolina (2-7 ATS) snapped a lengthy skid with an upset over the Saints in Week 9. Overs are 7-2 in Panthers games, but this matchup features two teams averaging below 17.0 PPG apiece.
  
• A pair of division leaders meet just outside the U.S. capital this weekend when the Commanders host the Steelers. With Russell Wilson under centre the past two weeks, the Steelers doused the Jets and Giants by a combined score of 63-33. But the Commanders are 7-0-1 ATS in their past eight games, and all of those wins came by at least a field goal.

• Dak Prescott is reportedly expected to miss multiple weeks with a hamstring injury, which puts the Cowboys (3-5) in a disastrous spot. Dallas is a home underdog with Philadelphia (6-2) rolling into town. The Cowboys have won five home games in a row against the Eagles, but it’ll be a much tougher hill to climb with Prescott on the sidelines.

• Detroit earned an A-plus in execution as it rolled to a comfortable victory at rain-soaked Lambeau Field in Week 9. Heading back indoors, the Lions will face a Texans squad that hopes to have Nico Collins back on offence. Detroit has the No. 1 scoring offence (32.3 PPG), while Houston has hit the under in seven of its past eight games.

The top spot in the NFC North is on the line Sunday as the Green Bay Packers host the Detroit Lions.

The pregame narrative: Jordan Love is expected to play for the underdog Packers, but that isn’t enough to sell me on backing the underdog Packers. I like both Lions tailbacks to make their mark, and Romeo Doubs should clear a modest receiving yardage total.

Check out my Lions vs. Packers same-game parlay predictions for Week 9 below.

Lions vs. Packers same-game parlay predictions

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Parlay: Montgomery anytime TD + Gibbs over 59.5 rushing yards + Doubs over 34.5 receiving yards (+350)

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Montgomery anytime TD (-165): The last time Montgomery stepped onto the Lambeau field grass, he absolutely tore it up.

In Week 4 of last season, Montgomery rumbled for 121 yards and three TDs in Green Bay on a whopping 32 carries. He doesn’t have that kind of stranglehold over the Lions’ backfield anymore, but he still gets plenty of cracks at crossing the goal line.

Montgomery has 16 carries inside the 10-yard line, per Rotowire, which ranks fourth in the NFL. He’s also had at least one carry inside the five-yard line in six of seven games.

With that kind of volume, it’s no surprise that Montgomery has seven touchdowns already, cashing this bet six times.

Other parlay picks

Gibbs over 59.5 rushing yards (-143): Gibbs has been on the rise for weeks, and he deserves to continue seeing tons of touches in Detroit’s offence.

The second-year running back rushed for a season-high 127 yards last week — raising the bar after a 116-yard performance the Sunday before.

Dating back to Week 2, Gibbs has rushed for 91.8 yards per game on a staggering 6.8 yards/carry.

Gibbs went under this number in both matchups against Green Bay last year, but he still produced a healthy 94 yards on 19 carries (4.9 YPC). He should get enough touches on Sunday to hit the over.

Doubs over 34.5 receiving yards (-182): Regardless of who the Packers have at quarterback, Doubs should clear this yardage total with relative ease. He’s averaging 54.9 yards per game and has gone over 34.5 yards in six of seven games.

Doubs leads the Packers in targets per game (5.7) and has seen a red zone target in four straight matchups. He’s clearly a trusted pass-catcher in a deep WR room.

Detroit is a dream matchup for opposing receivers, as the Lions allow the most receptions (17.7/game) and yards (210.7/game) to opposing WRs.

Last year, Doubs hit this over in both games against the Lions. That includes a nine-catch, 95-yard showing when they met at Lambeau.

Picks made at 3:05 p.m. on 11/02/24.

The Buffalo Bills look to put a greater divide between themselves and the rest of the AFC East this weekend as they battle the Miami Dolphins.

The pregame narrative: Buffalo won the first meeting between these teams with ease, and I suspect it’ll be another Bills win on Sunday. This +425 same-game parlay also includes prop bets on De’Von Achane and Dalton Kincaid.

Check out my Dolphins vs. Bills same-game parlay predictions for Week 9.

Dolphins vs. Bills same-game parlay predictions

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Parlay: Bills moneyline + Achane over 89.5 rushing/receiving yards + Kincaid over 3.5 catches (+425)

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Bills moneyline (-265): The Dolphins lost last week as home favourites in Tua Tagovailoa’s return, and things don’t get any easier this Sunday.

Miami is up in Western New York to face a Bills team that dominates at home. Since the start of the 2022 season, Buffalo boasts an NFL-best home record (18-4) with a 12.8-point average victory margin.

Oh, and Buffalo tends to beat Miami no matter where they’re playing.

With Josh Allen at quarterback, the Bills are 12-2 against the Dolphins. That includes a 31-10 thrashing in Miami back in September.

Other parlay picks

Achane over 89.5 rush/rec. yards (-113): Achane has averaged 6.9 yards per rush over his past three games. He’s also accrued 50-plus receiving yards in all three matchups with Tagovailoa. One way or another, I like his chances to rack up scrimmage yards.

In Week 2, Achane turned a season-high 29 touches into 165 scrimmage yards against the Bills (96 rushing, 69 receiving). He’s hit the 100-scrimmage-yard mark three times this year, which unsurprisingly coincides with the three times Tagovailoa was under centre.

Miami’s QB1 makes the offence legitimately dangerous, and Achane is a key piece of that. He has seven-plus targets in all three games with Tagovailoa.

In three career matchups against the Bills, Achane has cashed this bet twice while averaging 115.3 scrimmage yards on 17.0 touches.

Kincaid over 3.5 catches (-159): Kincaid still hasn’t had any explosive game for the Bills yet this year, but I wouldn’t call it a sophomore slump. He’s been steadily involved and looks like a strong bet at this number.

Last year’s 25th overall pick has six-plus targets in five consecutive games, which should be plenty to hit on this prop.

The problem is that not all targets are made equally, and 27.3% of Kincaid’s targets this year were uncatchable, per Fantasy Pros. That’s tied for the third-highest rate among 22 tight ends with 30-plus targets.

Still, given that his average depth of target is only 7.6 yards, the level of difficulty for most of his targets shouldn’t be too high. So I’m chalking this up to some misfortune more than anything else.

If such a high target volume continues, Kincaid should be money at this number. He has four-plus catches in all three career games against Miami.

Picks made at 3:50 p.m. on 11/01/24.

Sunday’s biggest clash features the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions, and I’ve got my eye on a Green Bay receiver as one of my NFL Week 9 TD picks.

The pregame narrative: Romeo Doubs’ production has enjoyed consistent production for Green Bay, and his red zone usage is trending up. Elsewhere, I also think D.J. Moore and Darnell Mooney are worthwhile plus-money plays to find the end zone.

Check out the best NFL Week 9 TD picks for the upcoming games.

NFL Week 9 TD picks

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Best bet: Moore anytime TD (+128)

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Moore hasn’t connected with Caleb Williams as often as either player would like, but it’s not for a lack of trying.

And to be fair, Moore does lead the team in targets (51), receptions (33) and yards (341), but his three touchdowns are a sign of underperformance.

In a plus matchup against the Arizona Cardinals this Sunday, I think Moore and Williams should have plenty of prime opportunities to cash in. If they keep at it, things will click.

Arizona’s defence has allowed the highest dropback success rate (55.5%) and the third-highest EPA per dropback, according to RBSDM.com, along with the third-highest net yards per pass.

Caleb Williams is coming off arguably his worst start of the season (10 for 24, 131 yards, zero TDs) and could use a bounce-back effort in a plus matchup. Moore should help him make it happen.

Moore has a 33.3% red zone target share, per Player Profiler, and has been targeted inside the 20-yard line 10 times over the past five games.

Key stat: Moore has seen four targets inside the 10-yard line over his past four games — and he has three TDs in that span.

Quick picks

Mooney anytime TD (+132): The Dallas Cowboys have been atrocious against the run and the pass, so I like the Atlanta Falcons’ chances of moving down the field freely on Sunday.

And though Bijan Robinson (-286 to score) is the most likely candidate to find the end zone for Atlanta, Mooney looks like a guy with some plus-money value.

The WR2 was quiet in the season opener but has gelled with Kirk Cousins ever since. From Week 2 onward, Mooney has averaged 5.0 receptions and 69.3 yards per game while snagging four touchdowns.

My main concern with Mooney is that he’s not much of a red zone target. But with 12 receptions of 20-plus yards over his past seven games, he doesn’t have to be.

Doubs anytime TD (+190): Trying to figure out who the Green Bay Packers’ top receiving target is can be a challenge from one week to the next. But look closely, and you’ll see that Doubs has a strong case to be the No. 1 guy.

Doubs leads the team in targets per game (5.7) and is second in yards per game (54.9). He’s also the only Packer who’s been targeted in the red zone in each of his past four games.

The Detroit Lions have the NFL’s No. 1 scoring offence, so Green Bay will likely need to light it up to keep pace. I think they can do that with their talented group of receivers, as Detroit is allowing the most receptions (17.7/game) and yards (210.7/game) to opposing WRs this year.

Doubs has led the Green Bay WR room in snap share in each of his games, and the red zone looks have been consistent. He’s the Packer worth backing this Sunday.

Picks made at 4:10 p.m. ET on 11/01/2024.