My three NBA prop bets for Saturday night feature Victor Wembanyama, Jordan Poole and Keyonte George.
The pregame narrative: Poole has been shooting a lot — and scoring plenty — from deep. George also has encouraging shot volume, but the results haven’t come yet. As for Wembanyama, I think tonight is a good opportunity to fade him as a rebounder.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for Nov. 2.
NBA prop bets
Go to full NBA betting markets
Best bet: Poole over 3.5 threes (-130)
Poole is a textbook heat-check guy. And right now he’s on fire.
At 25, Poole is the sage veteran surrounded by youngsters in the Washington Wizards’ backcourt. So far, that has meant he’s left to his own devices when chucking deep shots.
Poole has attempted 35 threes already through just four games, and 20 of them have found twine. That’s a 57.1% 3-point percentage, which is unsustainable.
But the superb start should encourage Poole to keep shooting. And tonight’s matchup makes that proposition even more compelling.
Poole’s Wizards host the Miami Heat, a team that seems content with daring its opponents to shoot from beyond the arc. Bold strategy.
Here’s where the Heat rank in terms of opponent 3-point shooting:
- 15.8 made threes/game (29th)
- 42.0 attempted threes/game (29th)
- 37.5 3PT% (20th)
Take Poole, who’s shooting confidently from beyond the arc, and put him up against a team that struggles mightily to defend from deep. Sounds like a winning combo to me.
Poole has gone over 3.5 threes in all four games this year, and I think he’ll add to that streak tonight.
Key stat: Miami has allowed 5.5 made threes per game to opposing shooting guards, per Betting Pros.
Quick picks
Wembanyama under 10.5 rebounds (-118): I probably won’t make a habit of fading Wembanyama’s rebounds prop at this number, but I think it makes sense tonight.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have a trio of frontcourt guys who have enough size to contend with the 7-foot-4, 209-pound centre. None of Rudy Gobert, Naz Reid or Julius Randle are as tall as Wemby, but they all have at least 40 pounds on him.
Last year, Wemby went under 10.5 rebounds in three of four matchups against Minnesota.
And so far this season, the reigning Rookie of the Year has hit the under in four of five games.
George over 17.5 points (-108): This is a volume play on a guy who’s trying to shoot through a slump.
George, a second-year guard, has a 28.0% FG rate so far through five games. He’s averaging 13.2 points on 15.0 shots per game.
Those are awful, awful numbers. But the shot volume is what I’m eyeing. If he keeps that pace, this point total should be attainable every night.
On Saturday, George’s Utah Jazz are catching the Denver Nuggets on the latter half of a back-to-back. Denver, which lost in Minnesota last night, has allowed 118.8 points per game this season (23rd in the NBA).
The last time George played in Denver was in March of last season. He finished with 29 points on 10-of-17 shooting.
Picks made at 1:10 p.m. on 11/02/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.