Sunday’s biggest clash features the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions, and I’ve got my eye on a Green Bay receiver as one of my NFL Week 9 TD picks.
The pregame narrative: Romeo Doubs’ production has enjoyed consistent production for Green Bay, and his red zone usage is trending up. Elsewhere, I also think D.J. Moore and Darnell Mooney are worthwhile plus-money plays to find the end zone.
Check out the best NFL Week 9 TD picks for the upcoming games.
NFL Week 9 TD picks
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Best bet: Moore anytime TD (+128)
Moore hasn’t connected with Caleb Williams as often as either player would like, but it’s not for a lack of trying.
And to be fair, Moore does lead the team in targets (51), receptions (33) and yards (341), but his three touchdowns are a sign of underperformance.
In a plus matchup against the Arizona Cardinals this Sunday, I think Moore and Williams should have plenty of prime opportunities to cash in. If they keep at it, things will click.
Arizona’s defence has allowed the highest dropback success rate (55.5%) and the third-highest EPA per dropback, according to RBSDM.com, along with the third-highest net yards per pass.
Caleb Williams is coming off arguably his worst start of the season (10 for 24, 131 yards, zero TDs) and could use a bounce-back effort in a plus matchup. Moore should help him make it happen.
Moore has a 33.3% red zone target share, per Player Profiler, and has been targeted inside the 20-yard line 10 times over the past five games.
Key stat: Moore has seen four targets inside the 10-yard line over his past four games — and he has three TDs in that span.
Quick picks
Mooney anytime TD (+132): The Dallas Cowboys have been atrocious against the run and the pass, so I like the Atlanta Falcons’ chances of moving down the field freely on Sunday.
And though Bijan Robinson (-286 to score) is the most likely candidate to find the end zone for Atlanta, Mooney looks like a guy with some plus-money value.
The WR2 was quiet in the season opener but has gelled with Kirk Cousins ever since. From Week 2 onward, Mooney has averaged 5.0 receptions and 69.3 yards per game while snagging four touchdowns.
My main concern with Mooney is that he’s not much of a red zone target. But with 12 receptions of 20-plus yards over his past seven games, he doesn’t have to be.
Doubs anytime TD (+190): Trying to figure out who the Green Bay Packers’ top receiving target is can be a challenge from one week to the next. But look closely, and you’ll see that Doubs has a strong case to be the No. 1 guy.
Doubs leads the team in targets per game (5.7) and is second in yards per game (54.9). He’s also the only Packer who’s been targeted in the red zone in each of his past four games.
The Detroit Lions have the NFL’s No. 1 scoring offence, so Green Bay will likely need to light it up to keep pace. I think they can do that with their talented group of receivers, as Detroit is allowing the most receptions (17.7/game) and yards (210.7/game) to opposing WRs this year.
Doubs has led the Green Bay WR room in snap share in each of his games, and the red zone looks have been consistent. He’s the Packer worth backing this Sunday.
Picks made at 4:10 p.m. ET on 11/01/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.