Looking to build off a 3-for-3 showing last week, I’m back with some college football picks for Week 10 action.
The pregame narrative: The Vanderbilt Commodores have my attention once again as curiously long underdogs against the Auburn Tigers. I’m also bullish on the shootout potential of Texas Tech against Iowa State.
Check out the best college football Week 10 picks for the action on Nov. 2.
College football Week 10 picks
| NCAAF Week 10 picks | Odds |
| Vanderbilt +7.5 | -110 |
| TTU/Iowa State over 56.5 pts | -110 |
Go to full college football betting markets.
Best Bet: Vanderbilt +7.5 (-110)
I can’t quit Vanderbilt.
For the third time this season, I love how many points the Commodores are getting as underdogs. They’ve covered for me twice before (at Kentucky, vs. Texas) and I expect them to do so again.
Vanderbilt is 6-2 ATS this year, which includes a 5-0 ATS record as underdogs. No other NCAA program has a perfect ATS underdog record with at least five covers.
The Commodores aren’t white-knuckling their way to covers, either. They’ve blown a lot of sizeable spreads out of the water:
- vs. Texas: 27-24 L as 17-point underdogs
- at Kentucky: 20-13 W as 13-point underdogs
- vs. Alabama: 40-35 W as 23-point underdogs
- at Missouri: 30-27 L as 17.5-point underdogs
- vs. Virginia Tech: 34-27 W as 13-point underdogs
To put it another way, Vanderbilt has been 13.5 points clear of the spread in every game as an underdog. And now it’ll face a very familiar opponent.
Vandy coach Jerry Kill and quarterback Diego Pavia previously teamed up for two seasons at New Mexico State, where they faced coach Hugh Freeze (formerly with Liberty, now with Auburn) twice.
In 2022, Pavia had three TD passes to help New Mexico State upset Liberty, 49-14. The Aggies were 23-point underdogs in that game.
In the following season, Freeze left Liberty for Auburn … but he couldn’t leave Pavia and Kill behind. New Mexico State won again — this time as 25-point dogs — behind another three TD passes from Pavia.
It’s been a magical season for Vanderbilt, and I wouldn’t put it past Pavia and Co. to pull the upset and clinch bowl eligibility. But I’m far more eager to bank a touchdown plus the hook on Saturday.
Key stat: Auburn is 1-3 ATS in its past four home games, and it lost three of those games straight up as the favourite.
Quick pick
Texas Tech/Iowa State over 56.5 points (-110): The Iowa State Cyclones have only allowed 14.4 points/game, but that has a lot to do with the quality of their competition.
According to ESPN, the Cyclones’ strength of schedule to this point ranks 88th in the nation. Beating up on teams like Houston, Arkansas State and North Dakota doesn’t mean their defence is impenetrable.
Enter the Texas Tech Red Raiders, who boast the No. 16 scoring offence (38.1 PPG). Combined with a dreadful defence (36.0 PPG, 123rd in NCAA football), the Red Raiders are built to hit overs.
All eight of Texas Tech’s games have finished with 50-plus total points, and five of them cleared this total.
I know Iowa State has a solid offence, led by QB Rocco Becht, and I think Texas Tech has enough firepower to make this an explosive matchup.
The over is 9-6 for Texas Tech and Iowa State combined this season, according to Covers.
Picks made at 12:50 p.m. on 11/01/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.