The NFL kicks off from Munich, Germany on Sunday morning, and that game features one of my two upset picks for the week.
The pregame narrative: It hasn’t been a pretty season for the Carolina Panthers or the New York Giants, but I like the former to claw out a win after showing some signs of life last week. In the 1 p.m. window, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers should put up a solid fight against the San Francisco 49ers.
Check out these NFL Week 10 upset picks.
NFL Week 10 upset picks
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Best bet: Buccaneers moneyline (+210)
What would this line have been if the Buccaneers had bucked up and gone for two at the end of regulation against the Chiefs? Instead of going for the win, Tampa Bay settled for overtime and lost without ever getting the ball in the extra frame.
Still, it was an impressive effort without Mike Evans or Chris Godwin in a hostile Arrowhead Stadium environment.
Neither of those receivers will be on the field this Sunday either, but Baker Mayfield has been adept at moving the ball around and finding several different targets in the Bucs’ offence. He leads the NFL in TD passes (23) and is seventh in passer rating (105.6).
Tampa looks like a team trending in the wrong direction, with some key injuries and a 1-4 record over its past five games. But the schedule has been brutal, too. Eight of the Bucs’ nine games have come against teams that currently sit in playoff position.
The Bucs have a pair of signature wins over the Commanders and Lions, and they’ve taken one-score losses against the Falcons (twice) and the Chiefs. So their 4-5 record isn’t as bad as it looks.
Christian McCaffrey returned to practice for the 49ers this week after missing the first eight games of the year. Even if he plays — and that’s not a guarantee — I don’t expect him to make a world of difference in his first meaningful snaps since the Super Bowl.
Ride with a home team that’s shown plenty of fight all season long.
Key stat: San Francisco has lost four games as a favourite this year.
Week 10 upset predictions
Panthers moneyline (+195): You might prefer to sleep in rather than watch the Panthers face the Giants in Germany on Sunday morning. I wouldn’t blame anyone for making that call.
Whether you’re watching or not, the Panthers should have a fair shake at winning this neutral site game.
Carolina beat New Orleans last week as a 7-point underdog, snapping a five-game losing skid and (hopefully) restoring some confidence for second-year quarterback Bryce Young.
In two starts since coming back off the bench, Young has been a bit better: 395 yards, 63.5% completion rate, 3 TDs, 3 INTs.
Now the Panthers face a Giants team that shares an equally miserable 2-7 record. New York has lost four games in a row straight up and against the spread.
Neither of these teams has been a favourite this year, and neither deserves to be. So I’ll take the plus-money side and hope for the best.
Picks made at 2:40 p.m. ET on 11/05/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.